2021 Tropical Waves Thread

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 18N southward, moving
W near 15 kt. This wave has yet to exit the monsoonal circulation
off of W Africa. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen
from 07.5N to 12N between 27W and western Africa.

[cycloneye]

This will be my last post for this wave because is emerging into EPAC.

8 AM TWD:

Another tropical wave in the west Caribbean is along 87W from the
Gulf of Honduras southward into the eastern Pacific, moving W
near 10 kt. Enhanced by an elongated upper-level low just to the
NW of the wave, scattered moderate to strong convection is
present from 11.5N to 15.5N between 81W and 84.5W, including
coastal sections of Honduras and Nicaragua.

[aspen]

This wave has my attention. While no model develops it, we are at the time where the Atlantic starts to ramp up, based on climatology and the progression of the MJO and VP anomaly setups. While it seems like a TUTT could establish itself over the Caribbean around August 7/8th, perhaps the wave could find some success before then. Maybe this will be a sacrificial wave that’ll help clear out SAL ahead of future waves.

[Category5Kaiju]

This wave has my attention. While no model develops it, we are at the time where the Atlantic starts to ramp up, based on climatology and the progression of the MJO and VP anomaly setups. While it seems like a TUTT could establish itself over the Caribbean around August 7/8th, perhaps the wave could find some success before then. Maybe this will be a sacrificial wave that’ll help clear out SAL ahead of future waves.

There are some hints of something in the far east MDR (at least according to some of the past GFS runs) at around that timeframe, but we'll see.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W from 18N southward, moving
W near 15 kt. This wave has yet to exit the monsoonal circulation
off of W Africa. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is seen from 07N to 12N between 27W and western Africa.

[cycloneye]

A sacrifice wave.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1420484044505157635

[hcane27]

Already fading ...,

[AnnularCane]

Poor little sacrificial lamb.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W from 18N southward, moving
W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident from 06n to 09N between 21W and 29W.

[abajan]

A sacrifice wave.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1420484044505157635

A bit like what happened a month ago, with 95L clearing the way for 97L to develop into Elsa. Of course, the background state isn't as favorable now as it was then. But, as most have opined, that will change in a few weeks' time.

[Nimbus]

As intimidating as the SAL and dry air appears ahead of the African waves, even a small area with some lift can survive. Cute little oasis feature on the WV imagery near 12N 47W appeared this morning.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W from 18N southward and
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident
from 05N to 09N between 22W and 34W.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 18N southward and
moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 05N-09N between 26W-33W. This weak wave is mainly
identifiable via 700 mb trough diagnostics.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 05N to 18N southward
and moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is evident from 06N-09N between 25W-30W. This weak wave is mainly
identifiable via 700 mb trough diagnostics.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W/33W
from 03N to 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 06N to
08N.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from
14N southward, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers are are associated with this wave from 5N to 8N between
28W to 38W.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Despite the unfavorable amount of surrounding dry air/SAL, this wave has done pretty well to continuously fire off convection since it made "splashdown" off the African coast. I'm kind of impressed. Don't think this has much of a shot of doing anything, but worth keeping an eye on, and it appears that this wave will alleviate some of the drought conditions impacting the Lesser Antilles atm.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from
14N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is associated with this wave from 5N-10N between 25W-
35W.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 37W from 16N southward,
moving W around 10 kt. The wave is surrounded by dry and dusty
Saharan Air Layer, inhibiting the development of showers and
thunderstorms.

[cycloneye]

It has been introduced on the 12z surface analysis at 28W south of 20N.