Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[skyline385]

Gfs will nail just about every community in the gulf coast during the next 10 days. Maybe the next run cuts through Cuba and out to sea.

Still waiting for the NOLA run


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[IcyTundra]

Gfs will nail just about every community in the gulf coast during the next 10 days. Maybe the next run cuts through Cuba and out to sea.

Still waiting for the NOLA run


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We already had the Houston run and FL panhandle run. Next will be the NOLA run followed by the Lake Charles run.

[toad strangler]

Gfs will nail just about every community in the gulf coast during the next 10 days. Maybe the next run cuts through Cuba and out to sea.

Still waiting for the NOLA run


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We already had the Houston run and FL panhandle run. Next will be the NOLA run followed by the Lake Charles run.

Gotta fit North Carolina or Long Island in there somewhere!

[SFLcane]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while the system approaches the Windward Islands toward the end of the week and moves over the eastern Caribbean sea over the weekend.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Iceresistance]

Gfs will nail just about every community in the gulf coast during the next 10 days. Maybe the next run cuts through Cuba and out to sea.

Still waiting for the NOLA run


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We already had the Houston run and FL panhandle run. Next will be the NOLA run followed by the Lake Charles run.

Don't forget to include Mobile, AL and Biloxi, MS

[Hurricane Mike]

Here's a video update on this potential future system:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIE4crMLcuc

[pgoss11]

At what point will this be tagged as an Invest?

[TheHurricaneGod]

At what point will this be tagged as an Invest?

Soon.

[sma10]

18z GFS vs 12z EURO at 240hrs, this is about the strongest model agreement I've seen between the GFS and Euro at this range...

https://i.imgur.com/xhGo21Z.jpg

Amazing agreement in both location and strength for +240hr. Yet, still likely to be incorrect

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS:

[Hurricaneman]

At what point will this be tagged as an Invest?

Probably sometime tomorrow and I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re tasking a recon plane for it the next day or so too

[SFLcane]

Once again a good chunk of long range GEFS ensembles head north towards Cuba and Florida.

[tolakram]

FYI since Luis usually handles all of these details for us.

You too can create an invest thread, but it has to show up here: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

bal072022.dat 2022-09-19 20:59 11K
bep142022.dat 2022-09-19 20:30 7.7K
bal972022.dat 2022-09-19 18:51 1.7K

As of right now (sorted by date descending) we have al 07 which is Fiona, ep14 which is Madeline, and al97 which is invest 97. Once bal98... shows up someone can create an invest thread, and not before.

[MississippiWx]

Once again a good chunk of long range GEFS ensembles head north towards Cuba and Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/8zQVxcsj/08455-C9-F-1-F60-4664-8-E24-36074832-B7-BF.gif

Climatology favors a northward and northeast turn. If something develops, especially something strong, I see a Florida impact coming.

[lsuhurricane]

Once again a good chunk of long range GEFS ensembles head north towards Cuba and Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/8zQVxcsj/08455-C9-F-1-F60-4664-8-E24-36074832-B7-BF.gif

Those quick north turners will verify soon enough related to a strengthening storm as depicted by the GFS. If not, will likely ride the northern coast of SA

[tolakram]

18Z Euro so far

[lsuhurricane]

18z Euro is exactly on top of the 12z spot at 90hrs. Maybe a smidge closer to SA. Same intensity as well

[SFLcane]

Now some GEFS ensembles hooking before Florida into the Bahamas. I’d certainly watch ensembles other then focusing on 5+ day op models. My opinion atleast.

Climo certainly favors something yanked north and northeast in time.

[blp]

HWRF and HMON off the Fiona grid on board in remarkable agreement. Wow.

[caneseddy]

Now some GEFS ensembles hooking before Florida into the Bahamas. I’d certainly watch ensembles other then focusing on 5+ day op models. My opinion atleast.

Climo certainly favors something yanked north and northeast in time.

https://i.postimg.cc/tRzz6MGJ/FB4-F38-B1-1440-4-BEA-AB3-E-C887-F7896-D52.png

Yep, the question is where will it happen...what's amazing is that pretty much every model has this developing and ending in the same vicinity of NW Caribbean/Yucatan Channel/Western Cuba. It's been a while since all models are in agreement this early..