Katrina Strengthening

[johngaltfla]

It's official. Most of our state is now in the famous (and my trademarked/copyrighted/regiserted):

CONE OF DEATH

Now let's all agree to lighten up and just enjoy the science of this amazing season.

And make sure you're all prepped so you can ride it out or evac if need be.

[Patrick99]

I disagree that a Cat. 1 is a big deal - some uprooted trees, power might be out for a couple days.

I think the rain and potential flooding with a loping Cat. 1 is the main thing - a la Irene. As long as I don't have to drive home from work in the midst of the blinding rain this time as I did with Irene, it's fine with me.

[gatorcane]

a deep concentrated blob of convection with very cold cloud tops has just recently blown up near the center within the last hour...god I hope this thing doesn't decide to start bombing tonight as I am afraid of.

[Windsong]

Chris, get some sleep tonight dear. Nothing is going to happen tonight that you can't get your arms around tomorrow. Trust me. It'll be okay.
Windsong

[boca]

It will be a tropical storm in the 5am advisory.Why look at this:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[sma10]

a deep concentrated blob of convection with very cold cloud tops has just recently blown up near the center within the last hour...god I hope this thing doesn't decide to start bombing tonight as I am afraid of.

Chris, surely you don't live in a teepee, do you? I'm sure that whatever housing structure you have will be able to survive whatever TD12 has to throw at you. And if you do not live in a sturdy enough home then you will always have the option of going to a safe shelter. You need to be strong for your family and loved ones.

[Recurve]

There's no point in minimizing danger and disruption from tropical weather.

What do people die from in storms these days? Power line in the street, you get electrocuted. Tree falls on the house, you get crushed. Lightning starts a fire. Rain causes traffic accidents. People get killed in boats from rough seas. Yeah, your whole house probably won't blow away in a TS or Cat 1, but it's still causes dangerous situations. You could have damage and flooding and injuries.

Imagine the storm gets parked in a light steering flow for FOUR DAYS over Florida, possible in one scenario. Every time we get a weather event, people find out something they didn't know before. Maybe this time it will be what it's like to cope with 20+ inches of rain and no electricity in the tropical heat.

[sma10]

There's no point in minimizing danger and disruption from tropical weather.

What do people die from in storms these days? Power line in the street, you get electrocuted. Tree falls on the house, you get crushed. Lightning starts a fire. Rain causes traffic accidents. People get killed in boats from rough seas. Yeah, your whole house probably won't blow away in a TS or Cat 1, but it's still causes dangerous situations. You could have damage and flooding and injuries.

Imagine the storm gets parked in a light steering flow for FOUR DAYS over Florida, possible in one scenario. Every time we get a weather event, people find out something they didn't know before. Maybe this time it will be what it's like to cope with 20+ inches of rain and no electricity in the tropical heat.

I agree with every single thing you wrote. I couldn't possibly have written it any better if I tried.

BUT, for crying out loud, a person will not be any help to themselves, their family, and their community if after every satellite shot they sound like their going to fragment into a million pieces. Take TD12 seriously? Absolutely, regardless of landfalling strength. But please....this is a time to be strong and steadfast, not afraid.

Edit: Just so I'm clear, I'm not suggesting that Recurve is acting in this way.

[gatorcane]

I'm very worried about the complacency I see here in S. Florida. Local mets are indicating a "rain event" with 40 mph winds expected....I know they are being conservative to not get anybody worried but let's be real....the radio is saying similar things...people don't seem worried. Well, I feel we are in for a rude awakening along the SE coast of FL...I think it has hurricane written all over it.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm very worried about the complacency I see here in S. Florida. Local mets are indicating a "rain event" with 40 mph winds expected....I know they are being conservative to not get anybody worried but let's be real....the radio is saying similar things...people don't seem worried. Well, I feel we are in for a rude awakening along the SE coast of FL...I think it has hurricane written all over it.

Chris I noticed the same thing and thought to myself that even if it is a minimum cat 1 that no one is going to be prepared if the power goes out. They are really not saying anything about this one.

[Frank2]

Chris, Katrina is now at the same latitude of Miami, and is currently moving northwestward around the backside of the ULL to it's west, so, a more likely track is now towards areas along the central Florida coast.

At this time it's still a poorly organized tropical storm, though I agree that we should continue to monitor it for any changes.

Frank

[gatorcane]

has the centered moved or something? It is just now reaching the lattitude of Key West based on my estimates ...

[Frank2]

It's currently nearing 24.6, and with Miami at 25, it's essentially at the same latitude.

Frank

[Thunder44]

Cat 1 (windwise) is not a big deal for a state that prone to major hurricanes. That is not to say to not prepare for some damage and discomfort.

[Rainband]

Slow mover will dump lots of rain. Some areas need it some don't.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Chris, Katrina is now at the same latitude of Miami, and is currently moving northwestward around the backside of the ULL to it's west, so, a more likely track is now towards areas along the central Florida coast.

At this time it's still a poorly organized tropical storm, though I agree that we should continue to monitor it for any changes.

Frank

Stop the presses I agree with FRANK!!!!

[Weatherboy1]

Living in Jupiter, I'm not all that concerned with Katrina. There are lots of Bahamian islands that will likely keep her from getting too strong (they aren't big enough to weaken her, but she will likely spend at least some time over land, therefore preventing her from rapidly deepening). She is only a 40 mph TS right now. There isn't much time to strengthen even if she does stay over water. The list of reasons why I think this will be nothing more than a bad thundestorm goes on and on.

ALL OF THAT SAID, we should watch her closely for two things: rapid deepening as indicated by recon or satellite shots AND a slower motion toward the NW. If she slows, she could feasibly get up to Cat1 status -- and anyone directly around where the center makes landfall could see some hairy conidtions. We'll see.

-Mike

[gatorcane]

Living in Jupiter, I'm not all that concerned with Katrina. There are lots of Bahamian islands that will likely keep her from getting too strong (they aren't big enough to weaken her, but she will likely spend at least some time over land, therefore preventing her from rapidly deepening). She is only a 40 mph TS right now. There isn't much time to strengthen even if she does stay over water. The list of reasons why I think this will be nothing more than a bad thundestorm goes on and on.

ALL OF THAT SAID, we should watch her closely for two things: rapid deepening as indicated by recon or satellite shots AND a slower motion toward the NW. If she slows, she could feasibly get up to Cat1 status -- and anyone directly around where the center makes landfall could see some hairy conidtions. We'll see.

-Mike

The Bahama islands won't do anything to impede her strengthening. That's a belief some people like to believe but they are too small and the water temps are running around 90 out there with the Gulf stream in the near future to work with...in addition the ULL is becoming a nonfactor as the dry air pocket is shrinking and the ridge will build in over it pushing it W and strengthening it.

[cjrciadt]

Living in Jupiter, I'm not all that concerned with Katrina. There are lots of Bahamian islands that will likely keep her from getting too strong (they aren't big enough to weaken her, but she will likely spend at least some time over land, therefore preventing her from rapidly deepening). She is only a 40 mph TS right now. There isn't much time to strengthen even if she does stay over water. The list of reasons why I think this will be nothing more than a bad thundestorm goes on and on.

ALL OF THAT SAID, we should watch her closely for two things: rapid deepening as indicated by recon or satellite shots AND a slower motion toward the NW. If she slows, she could feasibly get up to Cat1 status -- and anyone directly around where the center makes landfall could see some hairy conidtions. We'll see.

-Mike

The Bahama islands won't do anything to impede her strengthening. That's a belief some people like to believe but they are too small and the water temps are running around 90 out there with the Gulf stream in the near future to work with...in addition the ULL is becoming a nonfactor as the dry air pocket is shrinking and the ridge will build in over it pushing it W and strengthening it.

I'm split between your two points. Frances moved directly over Nassau which weaken here slightly. However water temps and conditions are better for growth for Katrina, and will not move over Nassau directly for now.

[gatorcane]

how about the convection blow up over last several hours...and it's sustaining......