TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Cape Verde]

My unofficial forecast which doesn't even need a disclaimer is that Katrina moves into the Gulf and forces the oil companies to shut down the platforms and rigs.<P>That's not based on weather forecasting. <P>It's based on some sort of karma that keeps pushing oil prices higher.

[storms in NC]

GFS came out with a much further east solution but nobody is giving it any credit so i guess its still a Florida into the gulf forecast for now even though i think the models that were showing the sharper right hook are more inline with the right idea and that it may turn sharp enough to hit the upper west side of the Pennisula near the big bend area.

IMO anyways

8pm discussion from Morehead city NC has a few concerns:

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...IMPACT OF TS KATRINA STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AT THE VERY LEAST ONSHORE FLOW/COASTAL TROUGHINESS
WILL LEAD TO A WETTER SCENARIO THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
PORTRAYING. I WILL RECOMMEND TO THE THE NEXT SHIFT TO RAISE POPS SAT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/MONDAY IF CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS
CONTINUE.

atleast will have to deal with the troughiness or the remnants we could use the rain though

If you run floyd and Katrina you will see that they are on the same track as of now. Floyd was to go into Fla too

[Rainband]

GFS came out with a much further east solution but nobody is giving it any credit so i guess its still a Florida into the gulf forecast for now even though i think the models that were showing the sharper right hook are more inline with the right idea and that it may turn sharp enough to hit the upper west side of the Pennisula near the big bend area.

IMO anyways

8pm discussion from Morehead city NC has a few concerns:

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...IMPACT OF TS KATRINA STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AT THE VERY LEAST ONSHORE FLOW/COASTAL TROUGHINESS
WILL LEAD TO A WETTER SCENARIO THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
PORTRAYING. I WILL RECOMMEND TO THE THE NEXT SHIFT TO RAISE POPS SAT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/MONDAY IF CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS
CONTINUE.

atleast will have to deal with the troughiness or the remnants we could use the rain though

If you run floyd and Katrina you will see that they are on the same track as of now. Floyd was to go into Fla too

I hope your kidding

[Eyes2theSkies]

yeah but there was a good size trough comming down with floyd

[gkrangers]

GFS came out with a much further east solution but nobody is giving it any credit so i guess its still a Florida into the gulf forecast for now even though i think the models that were showing the sharper right hook are more inline with the right idea and that it may turn sharp enough to hit the upper west side of the Pennisula near the big bend area.

IMO anyways

8pm discussion from Morehead city NC has a few concerns:

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...IMPACT OF TS KATRINA STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AT THE VERY LEAST ONSHORE FLOW/COASTAL TROUGHINESS
WILL LEAD TO A WETTER SCENARIO THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
PORTRAYING. I WILL RECOMMEND TO THE THE NEXT SHIFT TO RAISE POPS SAT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/MONDAY IF CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS
CONTINUE.

atleast will have to deal with the troughiness or the remnants we could use the rain though

If you run floyd and Katrina you will see that they are on the same track as of now. Floyd was to go into Fla too

I hope your kidding

Thats unnecessary...everyone is entitled to their opinion.

[caribepr]

0106Z -- since I can't see the center on radar, I'm going have a piece of my chocoloate birthday cake (48th) and watch the Worls Poker Tour!

Happy Birthday!! Have your cake and eat it too I think we could use a few of those Poker guys around here...they know how to keep a straight face (except that one guy a few years ago...the new one who was so funny and turned the whole thing around, I loved that guy!).
And thanks for your explanations - helps people like me who don't mind at all admitting being ignorant...way different than stupid . (at the ripe age of 51, I can do that so easily! How fabulous it is to get older and not want to pretend I know everything! )

[shaggy]

kidding about what rainband?

[Frank P]

That Frank P guy must have some serious weight.hehe

funny Jav........ I know where you live, and work...

I don't know how serious it is, but is damn heavy to carry around all day for sure... hehe.... my neighbors just took down their plywood last weekend... I bet they'd be pissed if they have to put it up this weekend....

[storms in NC]

yeah but there was a good size trough comming down with floyd

That is very true Eyes2theSkies. and no I wasn't joking. I was just making a point that things can happen. I didn't say it was going do it.

[Rainband]

kidding about what rainband?

about floydd

[wxman57]

0106Z -- since I can't see the center on radar, I'm going have a piece of my chocoloate birthday cake (48th) and watch the Worls Poker Tour!

44 years of hurricane following...since you were 4? I'm raising the BS flag on 48.

Well, the "57" part of my nick is when I was born. My mother taught me to track hurricanes back in 1961 with Carla. We tracked every single storm together from then on.

[frankthetank]

from today

[Sanibel]

Having difficulty finding center.

Could be slowing.


Am possibly seeing wobble south of west...

[mvtrucking]

0106Z -- since I can't see the center on radar, I'm going have a piece of my chocoloate birthday cake (48th) and watch the Worls Poker Tour!

Happy 48th. I had mine on the 15th.Your still a spring chicken. Wow, you have been tracking these for bookoo yrs. Please keep up the great posts.

[wxman57]

Thanks for the Bday wishes. I think I can pick up the center again on Radar. Not well enough to pinpoint the center with high confidence, but I think it's near 26.03N/77.84W. It appears to have slowed considerably now. But that 2-3 hour speed burst means landfall could occur as early as mid day to early afternoon Thursday rather than late evening.

[skysummit]

If that "what seems to be a developing eastern eyewall" continues to rotate around that center, our late night version Recon Central will be very exciting!

[shaggy]

That could be Ncdowneast providing the storm crosses in the alotted time frame but if it goes faster that messes with the models.Clark over at FLHurricane also made mention of this faster movement scenario yesterday and a play further W.For the time being the right bending models are not coming to fruitation.

Thats not actually true javlin sense all of the right bending models initially take the system westward and into the gulf which is what is happening and its not fair to say they aren't coming to fruition yet because they have not got to the critical point of the right bend yet only then when the storm fails to take the right can we say they have not come to fruition.

[WeatherEmperor]

Thanks for the Bday wishes. I think I can pick up the center again on Radar. Not well enough to pinpoint the center with high confidence, but I think it's near 26.03N/77.84W. It appears to have slowed considerably now. But that 2-3 hour speed burst means landfall could occur as early as mid day to early afternoon Thursday rather than late evening.

what is your best estimate as to a landfall time period in FL?

<RICKY>

[wxman57]

Thanks for the Bday wishes. I think I can pick up the center again on Radar. Not well enough to pinpoint the center with high confidence, but I think it's near 26.03N/77.84W. It appears to have slowed considerably now. But that 2-3 hour speed burst means landfall could occur as early as mid day to early afternoon Thursday rather than late evening.

what is your best estimate as to a landfall time period in FL?

<RICKY>

I just don't know. It shoots westward at 14-17 kts for 2-3 hours and now it looks like it has slowed considerably. Could even stall for hours. The faster movement even for a few hours means that it could reach the coast by mid afternoon tomorrow rather than late evening. Best guess? Maybe 3-5 pm EDT. Earliest, maybe noon. Not a high-confidence forecast as it may start/stop/start/stop for a while.

[Brent]

I just don't know. It shoots westward at 14-17 kts for 2-3 hours and now it looks like it has slowed considerably. Could even stall for hours. The faster movement even for a few hours means that it could reach the coast by mid afternoon tomorrow rather than late evening. Best guess? Maybe 3-5 pm EDT. Earliest, maybe noon. Not a high-confidence forecast as it may start/stop/start/stop for a while.

Why does that sound like Frances???

Happy Birthday...