From the 11 pm discussion:
THE MULTIPLE VORTICITY CENTERS IN SECOND WAVE UP STREAM FROM
US...THE FIRST IS NEAR 58 WEST...ARE NOW BECOMING MANIFEST. THESE
CENTERS...MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE BEGUN TO
SEPARATE AS EVIDENCED BY DIVERGING CONVECTION CLUSTERS. ONE PART OF
THE CONVECTION NOW APPEARS AT 11 NORTH 50 WEST...AND ONE PORTION OF
THE CONVECTION IS NEAR 16 NORTH 43 WEST. IT MAY BE THAT THE REASON
THAT THE MODELS SHOW SO MUCH NORTHERLY MOTION OF A DEVELOPING
TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT THEY DRAG UP THROUGH 20 DEGREES NORTH AT 57 TO
60 WEST SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS THAT THEY WERE
FOLLOWING THIS LATTER PIECE OF ENERGY. OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK AND BELIEVE THAT THIS COULD BE THE MORE WEST-ADVANCED
CONVECTION THAT IS HOLDING SOUTH AND THAT MAY PASS SOUTH OF US ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS CURRENTLY NOT CLEAR THAT EITHER WILL
DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY...NOW THAT THEY HAVE SPLIT...NOR IS IT CLEAR
THAT EITHER WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FURTHER. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPPER AIR SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEMS MAY OUT
RUN THE ANTICYCLONES THAT HAVE MADE CONDITIONS SO FAVORABLE.
)