99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
flhurricaneguy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 197
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:21 am

#301 Postby flhurricaneguy » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:06 pm

wow the models have changed since this morning. nothing had it coming up the east coast, what changed to cause the changes in the models?
0 likes   
Top
curtadams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1122
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: Orange, California
Contact:
Contact curtadams

#302 Postby curtadams » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:07 pm

I think there's some overreaction here. This thing is not even a tropical *low* yet. Both NHC and Accuwx say it *might* develop in *2-3 days* i.e., about when it arrives on the Nicaraguan coast. Even that would likely be a Jose situation - TS fires up as it move onshore. Frontpaging it seems sensationalistic.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
EDR1222
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1253
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2003 12:58 pm
Location: Melbourne, FL

#303 Postby EDR1222 » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:07 pm

Probably a little to early to tell as it has not developed yet.

It sure seems as though the Gulf has a bullseye on it right now, just as Florida seemed to last year.
0 likes   
Top
CHRISTY

#304 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:08 pm

what do you mean? can someone post the very lastest models for invest 99L!
0 likes   
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#305 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:09 pm

CHRISTY wrote:what do you mean? can someone post the very lastest models for invest 99L!


They're on page 15.
0 likes   
Top
flhurricaneguy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 197
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:21 am

#306 Postby flhurricaneguy » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:11 pm

is the area its in favorable for development?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#307 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:13 pm

12z Euro develops something out of it

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#308 Postby hicksta » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:13 pm

Currently Yes
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Mathias
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 38
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2005 10:39 pm
Location: Houston, TX

#309 Postby Mathias » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:13 pm

At the invest's current location, do the BAMM & BAMD models hold any relevance? I know that the BAM models are best used in the deep tropics, I just want to know if it is still deep enough in the tropics for these models to be reliable.
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#310 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:15 pm

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... mex.cf.gif

Latest GOM SST chart...

Lets just say portions of the GOM is more then warm enough to sustain a significant hurricane. Hopefully 99 goes *poof*
0 likes   
Top
CHRISTY

#311 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:15 pm

thats shows something in the bahamas i dont get it?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#312 Postby WindRunner » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:20 pm

WOW 99L wasn't here when I left at 6:30 this morning, but I get home and there is a 20 page thread. Guess our first Caribbean system in two months is causing some hype!
0 likes   
Top
flhurricaneguy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 197
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:21 am

#313 Postby flhurricaneguy » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:21 pm

the bamm shouldnt be used above 20 n. so where is its current location?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5598
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#314 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:23 pm

WindRunner wrote:WOW 99L wasn't here when I left at 6:30 this morning, but I get home and there is a 20 page thread. Guess our first Caribbean system in two months is causing some hype!

Yup it sure is especially with those boiling SSTs around it and favorable
environment... :wink:
0 likes   
Top
djtil
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 699
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:09 am

#315 Postby djtil » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:30 pm

fwiw...dfw afd mentions models showing low crossing yucatan and into western gulf by monday.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23703
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#316 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:34 pm

I've never seen such a wide range of opinions on the forecast track of this invest. Some
say the Yucatan and the western Gulf, others say the central or Eastern GOM, and still others
say up the East Coast of FL.

Until we have a legitimate system that the models can initialize properly on, it's mere
speculation at this point.
0 likes   
Top
flhurricaneguy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 197
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:21 am

#317 Postby flhurricaneguy » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:39 pm

its the only thing going on right now thats close enough to care about.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#318 Postby hicksta » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:40 pm

boca_chris wrote:I've never seen such a wide range of opinions on the forecast track of this invest. Some
say the Yucatan and the western Gulf, others say the central or Eastern GOM, and still others
say up the East Coast of FL.

Until we have a legitimate system that the models can initialize properly on, it's mere
speculation at this point.


I personaly think its gonna be a monster cat 5 867 mb 200 with 250 gust going straight over baco raton :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Canelaw99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2128
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:27 am
Location: Homestead, FL

#319 Postby Canelaw99 » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:42 pm

Exactly. This is the first day since Sep. started where we don't have a named system, according to TWC. We have to keep ourselves entertained somehow :wink:
0 likes   
Top
krysof

#320 Postby krysof » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:45 pm

We will be entertained for most of October, maybe even November. That caribbean wave is showing signs of development. I'm also watching a wave to the southwest of the cape verde islands. Good convection with it, and it has persisted since yesterday. The TWO hasn't mentioned this yet, but I have a good feeling they will if it persists to tomorrow.
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hurricane2022, Teban54 and 58 guests