98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#301 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:23 am

15/1145 UTC 17.7N 77.1W T1.5/1.5 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

#302 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:28 am

artist wrote:interesting site with up to date winds, and other things -

http://www.windfinder.com/forecasts/wind_cent_am24.htm

Very nice site Artist, that's what I love bout this Forum

#303 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:41 am

WHXX01 KWBC 151236
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20051015 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051015 1200 051016 0000 051016 1200 051017 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 78.4W 18.2N 79.5W 18.4N 80.4W 18.4N 81.1W
BAMM 17.9N 78.4W 18.2N 79.5W 18.4N 80.2W 18.3N 80.7W
A98E 17.9N 78.4W 17.8N 79.6W 17.8N 80.7W 17.8N 81.9W
LBAR 17.9N 78.4W 18.4N 79.4W 19.5N 80.0W 20.6N 79.8W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 59KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051017 1200 051018 1200 051019 1200 051020 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 81.8W 16.7N 83.9W 15.7N 86.3W 15.2N 89.0W
BAMM 17.6N 81.0W 15.7N 82.4W 14.0N 84.8W 12.5N 87.4W
A98E 17.8N 83.0W 17.4N 84.9W 17.2N 86.7W 17.2N 88.7W
LBAR 21.8N 79.0W 24.9N 75.9W 29.7N 69.8W 33.9N 58.1W
SHIP 68KTS 80KTS 85KTS 82KTS
DSHP 68KTS 80KTS 42KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 76.9W DIRM12 = 247DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 76.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

ronjon · #304 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:53 am

From HPC Disc:

00Z/18Z NCEP MEANS SHOW LESS MID-LATE WEEK RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS VERSUS THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN... AND MAY HAVE SOME VALIDITY IN LIGHT OF THE GREENLAND/DAVIS STRAIT RIDGE. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFS IN HOW THE SOLNS ARE ARRIVED AT... NEARLY ALL 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES REINFORCEMENT OF THE ERN CONUS TROF WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER OR JUST N OF THE GRTLKS BY DAY 7 SAT.

Doesn't look good if this thing gets into the GOM for eastern Gulf Residents.

:eek:

DESTRUCTION5 · #305 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:57 am

cycloneye wrote:15/1145 UTC 17.7N 77.1W T1.5/1.5 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

Ummm..That's a depression the other 23 times this year..

#306 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:07 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:15/1145 UTC 17.7N 77.1W T1.5/1.5 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

Ummm..That's a depression the other 23 times this year..

Waiting on recon.

#307 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:15 am

The way those colder cloud tops are popping, it may just be Wilma by the time Recon gets there...maybe that's what they're waiting on.

#308 Postby **tracyswfla** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:19 am

skysummit wrote:The way those colder cloud tops are popping, it may just be Wilma by the time Recon gets there...maybe that's what they're waiting on.

Gonna pull a Tammy!

#309 Postby **Buck** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:41 am

Wilma might end up being a BEAST.

#310 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:43 am

Buck wrote:Wilma might end up being a BEAST.

She definately has the makings of one right now. Visible is looking QUITE impressive.

#311 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:50 am

FREAKING HOLY COW!

#312 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:52 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:15/1145 UTC 17.7N 77.1W T1.5/1.5 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

Ummm..That's a depression the other 23 times this year..

t numbers alone dont make a TD, have to have a closed low.

#313 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:53 am

jlauderdal wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:15/1145 UTC 17.7N 77.1W T1.5/1.5 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

Ummm..That's a depression the other 23 times this year..

t numbers alone dont make a TD, have to have a closed low.

I believe we have that also. Looking at visible, and buoy data, I'm almost positive we have a closed low.

DESTRUCTION5 · #314 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:54 am

jlauderdal wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:15/1145 UTC 17.7N 77.1W T1.5/1.5 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

Ummm..That's a depression the other 23 times this year..

t numbers alone dont make a TD, have to have a closed low.

I think its closed already...Similar to the Badgers seaon...LOL

#315 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:55 am

...and we still don't have a stinking floater on it!

no advance · #316 Postby **no advance** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:55 am

I say no llc because the high clouds are peeling off to the ne.

#317 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:57 am

no advance wrote:I say no llc because the high clouds are peeling off to the ne.

Where? I see good outflow in almost all quadrants...and look at the lower clouds. They're rotating inward toward something of interest.

#318 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:00 am

If there is a LLC, here's where I think it is. What do you think?

TS Zack · #319 Postby **TS Zack** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:01 am

no advance wrote:I say no llc because the high clouds are peeling off to the ne.

You can clearly see the low level cues pulling around on the Southern Side.

DESTRUCTION5 · #320 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:02 am

skysummit wrote:If there is a LLC, here's where I think it is. What do you think?

More like where your top arrow is pointing....,I can see some decent LL inflow there

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