96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

#301 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:18 pm

Yes, turning is still there, and the low pressure is still there. On 12z surface from TAFB predicted to drop to 1008mb in 24hr. It's a wave. When the TWO or TWD speaks of "development", they mean a closed low and a TD, TS, etc. and in 3 days or less. It can still be a wave with turning, a low, and convection. Not exactly "poof", and not short-term development, either. :wink:

#302 Postby **AnnularCane** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:29 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Anything can happen

I scrolled down too fast and saw that, and thought we had a new depression! And no, the fact that it wouldn't have been TD 5 never entered my head. :roll:

canegrl04 · #303 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:47 pm

This is so frustrating.But patience is required.If this wave doesn't get itself together eventually,we still have the beginning of August,which I'm sure will bring us alot of robust systems 8-)

I'm readly for a cat 5(so long as it doesn'r threaten land

#304 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:48 pm

canegrl04 wrote:This is so frustrating.But patienceis required.If this wave doesn't get itself together eventually,we still have the beginning of August,which I'm sure will bring us alot of robust systems I'm readly for a cat 5(so long as it doesn'r threaten land

A life-long supply is needed!!!!

beachbum_al · #305 Postby **beachbum_al** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:50 pm

I was thinking the same thing when I saw the Depression on there but then I look at the 11pm and then the dates on it. :lol:

Anyway I don't think we need to write this one off yet. It seems to be surviving despite the odds.

#306 Postby **AnnularCane** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:53 pm

You never know. I'm not sure this wave will really do anything, but when I watch it I think I can see a spin. Of course my eyes could be playing tricks on me.

Oh well, at least I seem to have been upgraded to a tropical storm! 8-)

#307 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:56 pm

bvigal wrote:Yes, turning is still there, and the low pressure is still there. On 12z surface from TAFB predicted to drop to 1008mb in 24hr. It's a wave. When the TWO or TWD speaks of "development", they mean a closed low and a TD, TS, etc. and in 3 days or less. It can still be a wave with turning, a low, and convection. Not exactly "poof", and not short-term development, either.

There's a buoy just north of the wave with a 1015.4mb pressure. Winds are relatively light at the buoy (15 kts), which would suggest that pressures just south of the buoy beneath the mid-level spin are significantly higher than 1008 mb, pearhaps 1012-1013mb at the lowest.

#308 Postby **mvtrucking** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:03 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

There is still some evident circulation and convection associated with this Invest so it has not gone poof yet.

I agree. The area circled(Vis 1915 UTC image) seems to still have circulation and some convection:

HurricaneHunter914 · #309 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:09 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Though conditions don't look so good to the west of this system so development will be very slow to occur.

Jam151 · #310 Postby **Jam151** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:15 pm

skysummit wrote:
Jam151 wrote:Poof, like i said wait till august.

The more and more I read, the more I smell troll. It's by no means "poof". It's a freakin' tropical wave. It's allowed to lose convection. The axis is still there, and the structure is still there.

What do u want me to say. Yes I think it has zero chance at development, their is too much dry air and the shear it will run into will kill whats left of it which isn't much. This a is normal hurricane season so I expect no surprizes. If i'm wrong then i'll eat the crow, but you need to step off the name calling, giving opinions doesn't equal trolls.

HurricaneHunter914 · #311 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:19 pm

But you did say an untrue thing about this Invest and it hasn't gone poof. You need to think before you post, just because the convection has decreased doesn't mean it has gone poof. That's why people here are thinking you're a troll.

#312 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:22 pm

Jam151 wrote:
skysummit wrote:
Jam151 wrote:Poof, like i said wait till august.

The more and more I read, the more I smell troll. It's by no means "poof". It's a freakin' tropical wave. It's allowed to lose convection. The axis is still there, and the structure is still there.

What do u want me to say. Yes I think it has zero chance at development, their is too much dry air and the shear it will run into will kill whats left of it which isn't much. This a is normal hurricane season so I expect no surprizes. If i'm wrong then i'll eat the crow, but you need to step off the name calling, giving opinions doesn't equal trolls.

You said "Poof, like i said wait till august." You're going against what the NHC is saying. When someone makes a comment like that, I want to hear your opinion on why you think it's "poof" when it's clearly not. It may be at one point, but not now. Also....wait till August? Are you saying nothing will form in July at all? Wow...it's only the 10th so you're making one heck of a prediction. I would like to hear your reasoning behind that also. I'm sure I'm NOT the only one who would.

Yes, this season is acting pretty darn normal....kind of quiet June and July, but when comments like yours are made, I feel they should be backed up by knowledge to explain your difference in thinking than the NHC.

Aquawind · #313 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:24 pm

Stop the Troll Talk NOW!

Jam151 · #314 Postby **Jam151** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:28 pm

I wanna go futher with this because i'm pretty offended, but i'll back down. I want to be able to post on this board throughout the season.

#315 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:30 pm

Jam151 wrote:I wanna go futher with this because i'm pretty offended, but i'll back down. I want to be able to post on this board throughout the season.

Sorry to offend you jam. I truly don't think you're a "t word" so I take that comment back. Feel free to PM me if you wish to discuss this further.

#316 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:31 pm

I think it's better for skysummit and Jam151 to talk personal issues by PM.

#317 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:
bvigal wrote:Yes, turning is still there, and the low pressure is still there. On 12z surface from TAFB predicted to drop to 1008mb in 24hr. It's a wave. When the TWO or TWD speaks of "development", they mean a closed low and a TD, TS, etc. and in 3 days or less. It can still be a wave with turning, a low, and convection. Not exactly "poof", and not short-term development, either.

There's a buoy just north of the wave with a 1015.4mb pressure. Winds are relatively light at the buoy (15 kts), which would suggest that pressures just south of the buoy beneath the mid-level spin are significantly higher than 1008 mb, pearhaps 1012-1013mb at the lowest.

The 1008 according to TAFB is in 24 hrs from 12z map. Click on the links I posted, both surface maps are there. I was only pointing out their analysis...

#318 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:42 pm

Seems to be emitting outflow at the mid level, under the shear. You can see a clockwise expanding outflow at mid level on RGB http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html It might well survive as a vigorous low,even under the high shear that's about to hit it.

Stratusxpeye · #319 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:43 pm

I stick to my original prediction a few pages back that this will just be anothe x-invest. I just don't see the right conditions for it. I could be wrong but I could br right. We'll find out. I think the remainder of july wil be pretty unactive. Beryl may come but I ouldnt bet a lot on it. I wouldnt say Chris will come in july though. This year is shaping up to be a pretty typical year so far Let's hope it stays that way throughout.

#320 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:48 pm

OK, I admit now that it starting to get some NW shear from the building UL High to its west, east of the islands, so it will be getting some shear the next 12-24 hrs before moving underneath UL anticyclonic flow once again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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