98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#301 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:07 am

Image

It may not have a center or anything, but it looks interesting. Lets wait for the TWO @ 11:30 AM EDT.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15469
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#302 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:09 am

HURAKAN wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:My wild guess is 24.5N 94.5W moving NE. I'm not basing this on much other than the visible sat.


It looks more like a northward movement.


I agree, it is currently a northward movement, but I expect a more NNE movement once is past the 26th Lat.
0 likes   
Top
Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#303 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:10 am

HURAKAN wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:My wild guess is 24.5N 94.5W moving NE. I'm not basing this on much other than the visible sat.


It looks more like a northward movement.


If it's centered any were near were I said, We should see a dramatic change from this buoy real soon.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002
0 likes   
Top
Josephine96

#304 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:10 am

I'm guessing their not going to send recon out..? they didn't mention recon on the 5:30 two..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146196
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#305 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:13 am

Josephine96 wrote:I'm guessing their not going to send recon out..? they didn't mention recon on the 5:30 two..


Officially,we will know very soon if they are going or not,when they will release todays plan of the day.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#306 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:19 am

With the front surging SE from the west I expect this will veer N to NE before very long:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146196
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#307 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:21 am

NOUS42 KNHC 241400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 24 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
4. REMARKS: TODAY'S LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
CANCELLED 24/1200Z.

No surprise.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2813
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:
Contact Hybridstorm_November2001

#308 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:22 am

Yeah I don't give it much chance. I think it'll die soon (as far as being a TC goes).
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#309 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:23 am

There is no front left...It pulled up stationary and disapated yesterday..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#310 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:23 am

Odd. It looks better this morning than ever before.
0 likes   
Top
Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#311 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:24 am

Someone probably already posted this. A floater is on it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#312 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:25 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Yeah I don't give it much chance. I think it'll die soon (as far as being a TC goes).



What is going to "kill" it?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#313 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:27 am

Stormcenter wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Yeah I don't give it much chance. I think it'll die soon (as far as being a TC goes).



What is going to "kill" it?


Good question.
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#314 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:27 am

Stormcenter wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Yeah I don't give it much chance. I think it'll die soon (as far as being a TC goes).



What is going to "kill" it?


As far as a closed low...

Shear and the proximity to land..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#315 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:33 am

dixiebreeze wrote:Odd. It looks better this morning than ever before.


I agree completely, but the problem is that there isn't a discernable low pressure center, therefore, sending the RECON will be just a waste of time.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

#316 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:34 am

>>Shear and the proximity to land..

Shear is enhancing the thunderstorms right now.

Steve
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#317 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:35 am

Looks like they want to use recon for the wave in the Atlantic...maybe...

check out the new thread on this
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
T-man
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 240
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:57 am
Location: Lafitte, LA

#318 Postby T-man » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:38 am

Kinda looks like the outflow from Emilia is helping to pump up the convection. As the pacific storm moves farther out to sea, and shear relaxes, and if this blob can hold onto convection overnight, a chance for it to spin up? Just askin'
0 likes   
Top
Jim Cantore

#319 Postby Jim Cantore » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:39 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

It may not have a center or anything, but it looks interesting. Lets wait for the TWO @ 11:30 AM EDT.


I can point out the center
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#320 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:45 am

Emilia has very little if anything to do with enhancing the convection in the BOC.
IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Jr0d, Shawee, Sps123 and 43 guests