Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Normandy]

^ Hopefully....
Because that track has it pointed at a certain Major city. But honestly....itll probably become more than what most people here are forecasting it to be imo.

[boca]

Labreeze see for yourself.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... &map.y=141

[NDG]

All of this -removed- better stop, people better post something with some ground supporting their statements. This is the kind of system that needs to be taken day by day, if not hour by hour as it proved so today.

[LaBreeze]

We're used to the rain as well here in SW Louisiana too, SootyTern. We don't cancel either - but I just hate driving in heavy rain. Not my idea of relaxation, you know. I was just wondering what the local mets in S. Florida were saying.

[Rainband]

All of this -removed- better stop, people better post something with some ground supporting their statements. This is the kind of system that needs to be taken day by day, if not hour by hour as it proved so today.

Not according to the NHC.

[Normandy]

^Well, the NHC didnt expect this to develop, so.....

[Scorpion]

This is a very complicated setup, and we will just have to take it one step at a time. This is going to be interesting .

[TS Zack]

All of this -removed- better stop, people better post something with some ground supporting their statements. This is the kind of system that needs to be taken day by day, if not hour by hour as it proved so today.

Not according to the NHC.

\

Just because they dissipate it with time, they understand what can happen. I am sure each forecaster has a different opinion than Franklin. I don't think that is a smart statement because we all know they watch these things every step of the way.

[Swimdude]

DISCUSSION:

000
WTNT43 KNHC 010250
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

REPORTS FROM FRENCH BUOY 41100 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT
THERE WAS A WEAK CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z CONFIRMED
THAT THE CIRCULATION EXISTED BUT ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
CIRCULATION WAS VERY SMALL. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED
ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS...DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR RESULTING PRIMARILY FROM
STRONG EASTERLIES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS COMPLICATED...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A
LARGE UPPER-LOW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE
FUTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. SOME GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE
UKMET...SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP A STRONG WESTERLY
SHEARING FLOW IN PLACE IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS RELAX THIS FLOW...BUT IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH...AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS. THE GFDL MODEL
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...AS DO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWS A VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND...BUT PERHAPS THIS MODEL
CANNOT APPRECIATE JUST HOW FRAGILE A SYSTEM THE DEPRESSION IS RIGHT
NOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MAY BE SHORT LIVED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. THE DOMINANT STEERING IS EXPECTED TO
BE PROVIDED BY THE MID- TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE DEPRESSION
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 16.6N 59.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 17.4N 61.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 18.3N 63.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 19.2N 65.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 20.1N 67.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 21.5N 71.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like a few interesting days ahead!!

Everyone, get your tracking charts ready!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

A brief post by JB tonight said that he expects this to eventually be a GOM system if it can survive the islands. As for shear, he thinks the upper feature off the east coast will actually back SW and ventilate TD #3. Sounds interesting to me...

BTW: He agrees with the 5-day track, but thinks it will turn more W after that and move into the Gulf.

[Scorpion]

Wow, if it ventilates TD 3 its a whole different ballpark....

[HouTXmetro]

A brief post by JB tonight said that he expects this to eventually be a GOM system if it can survive the islands. As for shear, he thinks the upper feature off the east coast will actually back SW and ventilate TD #3. Sounds interesting to me...

BTW: He agrees with the 5-day track, but thinks it will turn more W after that and move into the Gulf.

thats a lot of movement for that ULL to get SW of TD 3

[Bailey1777]

In the past this system has died out at night I don't see this happening tonight.

[Scorpion]

He meant the ULL will move SW, not actually be SW of TD 3.

[Normandy]

Thats another factor I wondered why the NHC didn't mention.....because they forecasted Wilma to be sheared and that trough intensified it.

[PTrackerLA]

I have to admit the "CDO" of TD 3 looks better than ever at this hour. It still looks sheared but I wouldn't be surprised if we have Chris tomorrow.

[TS Zack]

Is it just me or did Franklin forget he had to do the TWO?

[NDG]

The latest 00z run of the GFS continues to move the ULL in the Bahamas westward into the GOM, weakening as it moves westward later on the week, fairly consistant in its past few runs on this scenario.

[NDG]

Is it just me or did Franklin forget he had to do the TWO?

He sure forgot.