Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Swimdude]

Hurricane Season 2006: "The Little Season That Could."

[skysummit]

I'm looking at the Rainbow imagery of the SSD site and I believe I'm noticing something in particular. To my eyes, it looks as though convection is beginning to develop in a counterclockwise fashion around the perimeter of what looks to be the center. Does anyone else see this? If what I'm seeing is correct, then it looks like it may barely miss S.A. even if it wouldn't get any latitude.

Take a look at the Rainbow loop and tell me your opinions.
SSD Rainbow Animation

[jasons2k]

I'm looking at the Rainbow imagery of the SSD site and I believe I'm noticing something in particular. To my eyes, it looks as though convection is beginning to develop in a counterclockwise fashion around the perimeter of what looks to be the center. Does anyone else see this? If what I'm seeing is correct, then it looks like it may barely miss S.A. even if it wouldn't get any latitude.

Take a look at the Rainbow loop and tell me your opinions.
SSD Rainbow Animation

Yes, I was loking at various Rainbow images on the navy site and noticed the same. It does have the "look".

[ConvergenceZone]

I thought someone told me that do the gravitational pull that they almost always gain altitude, but maybe that's only if it's an actual storm...


If this one doesn't develop, I guess all eyes will be on the wave coming off of Africa.

[skysummit]

I'm looking at the Rainbow imagery of the SSD site and I believe I'm noticing something in particular. To my eyes, it looks as though convection is beginning to develop in a counterclockwise fashion around the perimeter of what looks to be the center. Does anyone else see this? If what I'm seeing is correct, then it looks like it may barely miss S.A. even if it wouldn't get any latitude.

Take a look at the Rainbow loop and tell me your opinions.
SSD Rainbow Animation

Yes, I was loking at various Rainbow images on the navy site and noticed the same. It does have the "look".

I realize these are totally different situations, but it kind of has that look of Ileana before she became Ileana. With her, convection developed around the perimeter in a counterclockwise fashion and then blew up near the center....that's when she was upgrade to a TS. I don't expect convection to continue blowing up here though....although it could.

[Blown Away]

Nice little spin near 10.5 / 54.5!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[SouthFloridawx]

It definitely looks like there is at least a broad low level spin.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
Loop

97L is looking much better on satelite today.

[GeneratorPower]

This one looks to clip S.A. with it's south side. But it is looking healthier and better defined than earlier today.

[LAwxrgal]

Could this be a TD by tomorrow?

[skysummit]

Could this be a TD by tomorrow?

If the development trend continues today and tonight, I do think recon will go in and possibly find a depression. It's starting to look pretty good...especially conparing it to the past few hours.

[GeneratorPower]

Could this be a TD by tomorrow?

I say it's very possible. The NHC says within 0-48 hours, possible. It looks really good on visible satellite and getting better.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it will pull up north. I've seen several systems wait until the last minute and then they just seem to magically pull up and change direction.

[MWatkins]

For some reason this seems to come up all the time with these systems way down there.

Let's say the system is centered at 10.5N 54W...which his probably a little to far west but let's just say that. At that lat, South America coastline starts at 62.5 or so...and evn counting Trinidad...let's say 61W.

That's 7 degrees of long to go.

At 18 knots...lets compute the time it will take to get there:

7 degrees * 60 mins = 420 mins
420 mins / 18 min per hour = 23.33 hours

So a day before the center gets that far if it were moving due west. But the system is moving at 280...10 degrees north of due west. So 1 degree north for every 9 west (I think). So if my trig is correct...the center moving at 280/18 would be up near 11.5 61.2 or so in 23.3 hours.

At the very least the center will remain over water...and I wouldn't be shocked to see it gain a little more lat and slow down a tad before tomorrow...

MW

[skysummit]

I believe I may see a low level circulation trying to develop and thunderstorms trying to form right over it....

[perk]

Thanks Mike for putting the (it's gonna hit land) issue to bed.

[ConvergenceZone]

For some reason this seems to come up all the time with these systems way down there.

Let's say the system is centered at 10.5N 54W...which his probably a little to far west but let's just say that. At that lat, South America coastline starts at 62.5 or so...and evn counting Trinidad...let's say 61W.

That's 7 degrees of long to go.

At 18 knots...lets compute the time it will take to get there:

7 degrees * 60 mins = 420 mins
420 mins / 18 min per hour = 23.33 hours

So a day before the center gets that far if it were moving due west. But the system is moving at 280...10 degrees north of due west. So 1 degree north for every 9 west (I think). So if my trig is correct...the center moving at 280/18 would be up near 11.5 61.2 or so in 23.3 hours.

At the very least the center will remain over water...and I wouldn't be shocked to see it gain a little more lat and slow down a tad before tomorrow...

MW

Thanx for sharing. That might explain why these disturbances always seem to pull north right before reaching South America, or perhaps it's just the illusion that they will hit South America when they really won't.

[HURAKAN]

This system certainly looks interesting this afternoon.

[miamicanes177]

Convection has increased and it is becoming better organized as expected. This will probably become a depression tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

Convection has increased and it is becoming better organized as expected. This will probably become a depression tomorrow.

Agree. If the LLC (if it has one) can tighten a little bid more and convection become a little more organized around the center, a depression will be here in no time.

[LAwxrgal]

I know the Debster is out there, but as she's likely going fishing, this is the one to watch for potential US impact. It looks pretty good now, and I agree with Skysummit and Generator that this could become a depression tomorrow.