Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #301 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:49 pm

I will have to studie the models a little to see if that tutt will move or lefted out.

#302 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:49 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:wxman57,
I"m surprised you have the energy and desire to be on this board after working with this type of stuff at work all day long. I guess the only thing I can think of is that it really shows your love for what you do...

Yes, I do love what I do. I've been tracking hurricanes since I was 4 back in 1961 in south-central Louisiana - 45 years ago yesterday. Now I lead a team of hurricane forecasters from June-Nov and get to travel the country speaking about hurricanes in the "off" season. I work 18 hours a day and dream about hurricanes after that. ;-)

Anyway, here's a model plot. I did get the CONU, but it goes out only about 48 hours. I removed the non-dynamic models and just included models like the GFDL, GFS, and the consensus models. Not a lot of diversity, as all models aren't being run on this system yet:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby16.gif

#303 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:51 pm

PTPatrick wrote:Sorry Porta...that came out catty, not meant to be. Keep posting JB's thoughts as they are always grounded at least somewhat in reality, and therefor worth the read. It just seems like he is ready the Galveston 1900 repeat.

I know ... if I had a buck for every "Texas threat" in the last few years, the first round of brew would be on me!! :lol:

miamicanes177 · #304 Postby **miamicanes177** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:52 pm

dr. steve lyons was very bullish on this for development.

Rainband · #305 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:52 pm

Portastorm wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:Sorry Porta...that came out catty, not meant to be. Keep posting JB's thoughts as they are always grounded at least somewhat in reality, and therefor worth the read. It just seems like he is ready the Galveston 1900 repeat.

I know ... if I had a buck for every "Texas threat" in the last few years, the first round of brew would be on me!!

Florida too..we'd be inebriated :lol:

#306 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:52 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

This reminds me was it 98L in mid to late July. Almost perfectly like it. 20 to 30 knot shear over the eastern Caribbean. With the core of the trough at around 75 west southwest to northeast. With 40 knots of shear over PR. Upper level Anticyclone right on top of the cyclone/invest making a small area of faverable upper level. You can also look at the visible in see how small this area is with the shear racing by to the north.

Here is the shear maps for all to see that this system has something against it...

Remember, that's just a snapshot. The atmosphere is changing. The ridge over 97L will be moving westward with the disturbance. There is some question about the TUTT in the western Caribbean, though. Models were indicating a weakening of the TUTT over the weekend with an upper low breaking off and moving to the southwest ahead of 97L. That could aid ventilation/convection rather than be an inhibiting factor, though.

cpdaman · #307 Postby **cpdaman** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:53 pm

well happy belated birthday WXMAN57

rnbaida · #308 Postby **rnbaida** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:54 pm

ALL the models are predicting the same track...that is weird

Trugunzn · #309 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:54 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:dr. steve lyons was very bullish on this for development.

what did he say?

Scorpion · #310 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:54 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:dr. steve lyons was very bullish on this for development.

Thats surprising. He is usually very conservative.

flyingphish · #311 Postby **flyingphish** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:55 pm

Well..if you have to pick a logical target. Texas is a good bet. At least he did not pick S. Fl. Everybody picks S. Fl. Sooner or later.. JB will get it right. God bless Texas ! Cause when JB is right.. you will be the first to know it. And then you can clap for him.

miamicanes177 · #312 Postby **miamicanes177** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:55 pm

he said that it is in a low shear enviornment and should become a torpical storm or more. He said it will be in an even more favorable enviornment in the western caribbean. He said that it deserves very close attention.

johngaltfla · #313 Postby **johngaltfla** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:58 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:he said that it is in a low shear enviornment and should become a torpical storm or more. He said it will be in an even more favorable enviornment in the western caribbean. He said that it deserves very close attention.

Ugh. This means we are less than 72 hours away from Hurricane Girl's "Holy Crap" which means a landfalling hurricane usually.

Ugh.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #314 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

This reminds me was it 98L in mid to late July. Almost perfectly like it. 20 to 30 knot shear over the eastern Caribbean. With the core of the trough at around 75 west southwest to northeast. With 40 knots of shear over PR. Upper level Anticyclone right on top of the cyclone/invest making a small area of faverable upper level. You can also look at the visible in see how small this area is with the shear racing by to the north.

Here is the shear maps for all to see that this system has something against it...

Remember, that's just a snapshot. The atmosphere is changing. The ridge over 97L will be moving westward with the disturbance. There is some question about the TUTT in the western Caribbean, though. Models were indicating a weakening of the TUTT over the weekend with an upper low breaking off and moving to the southwest ahead of 97L. That could aid ventilation/convection rather than be an inhibiting factor, though.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

I agree, I had not looked at the models because my computer is being very slow. The tutt pulls out with a strenthing upper level anticyclone being forecasted. I also agree if this set up gets together with the tutt to the west it could be very faverable. Kind of like Ioke over the central Pacific.

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #315 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 8:59 pm

I wonder if this will be TD 5 or TS Ernesto when I wake up tomorrow?

Probably not TS Ernesto.. but maybe TD 5?

#316 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:00 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:I wonder if this will be TD 5 or TS Ernesto when I wake up tomorrow?

Probably not TS Ernesto.. but maybe TD 5?

I think it has TS winds already...

rnbaida · #317 Postby **rnbaida** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:00 pm

folks, this system will be a depression by 11am thursday and will be a storm by 11pm thursday. I just got off the phone with my brother who is a meteorologist, and he says that a cat 2-3 is in the picture for the gulf, he said that a landfall in texas to lousiana is very possible. If the GFDL is predicting a 110mph hurrricane then we are in some trouble.... any comments?

#318 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:01 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:I wonder if this will be TD 5 or TS Ernesto when I wake up tomorrow?

Probably not TS Ernesto.. but maybe TD 5?

I think NHC will wait for recon tomorrow - if there's no overnight fizzle...

#319 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:01 pm

rnbaida wrote:folks, this system will be a depression by 11am thursday and will be a storm by 11pm thursday. I just got off the phone with my brother who is a meteorologist, and he says that a cat 2-3 is in the picture for the gulf, he said that a landfall in texas to lousiana is very possible. If the GFDL is predicting a 110mph hurrricane then we are in some trouble.... any comments?

I'm thinking Category 4 or 5 is possible out of this.

Praxus · #320 Postby **Praxus** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:01 pm

Looking more typical now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

not as sloppy...thing's pretty damn big too

Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

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