Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[Stormcenter]

To be technical, yes it is relative

Looks like the new orleans MET that said there was alot of shear ahead of it and wasn't worried about it could be right folks...

remember all of the arguing about this last night

Yea...that was Bob Breck who mentioned something like that last night and we thought he was crazy.

He obviously saw something 99% of us including the NHC didn't see.

Yeah and Breck said last year that Katrina would NOT get into the GOM, for us not to worry about it and would be an east coast problem.... I'll never forget that.... he wasn't seeing all that well last year, perhaps he has had some lasak surgery since Katrina...

Yes he say something like that on Thursday when Katrina was still in the Atlantic but to his credit sounded the alarm on Friday evening. My brother lives north of N.O. and sent me a video of his broadcasts as the storm approached.

[jlauderdal]

To be technical, yes it is relative

Looks like the new orleans MET that said there was alot of shear ahead of it and wasn't worried about it could be right folks...

remember all of the arguing about this last night

Yea...that was Bob Breck who mentioned something like that last night and we thought he was crazy.

He obviously saw something 99% of us including the NHC didn't see.

unless you were at NHC yesterday dont think for a second that Breck is outforecasting anyone at NHC. I am sure NHC had all the scenarios covered and just because we dont see it in a disco or TWO that they arent aware of what is going on.

[Johnny]

I think Masters was just throwing out a little food for thought. Alot of possibilities are on the table and he was just throwing one more into the frey. Will it happen? Not likely but it's a possibility.

[Frank P]

To be technical, yes it is relative

Looks like the new orleans MET that said there was alot of shear ahead of it and wasn't worried about it could be right folks...

remember all of the arguing about this last night

Yea...that was Bob Breck who mentioned something like that last night and we thought he was crazy.

He obviously saw something 99% of us including the NHC didn't see.

Don't get me wrong I like Breck, but he missed this one bad early on... j

Yeah and Breck said last year that Katrina would NOT get into the GOM, for us not to worry about it and would be an east coast problem.... I'll never forget that.... he wasn't seeing all that well last year, perhaps he has had some lasak surgery since Katrina...

Yes he say something like that on Thursday when Katrina was still in the Atlantic but to his credit sounded the alarm on Friday evening. My brother lives north of N.O. and sent me a video of his broadcasts as the storm approched.

Don't get me wrong I do like Breck, he has such passion for tropical weather, he just missed this one (Katrina) bad early on...

[wxman57]

Ok how does anyone know why Dr. Masters said the center location would increase the risk to the East Coast? I really see this going into the GOM...

One problem with that prediction is that all the dynamic models predict a mid to upper-level high over the southeast U.S. by Tuesday, about the time the system would reach western Cuba. It would seem unlikely that anything would track toward the east U.S. Coast or Florida if the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian are correct.

Here's the mean flow from 700-400mb valid 7am CDT Tuesday (GFS):

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby19.gif

[beachbum_al]

Ok how does anyone know why Dr. Masters said the center location would increase the risk to the East Coast? I really see this going into the GOM...

I am curious too. I would think if the center form more to the north would mean more of a Central/North east GOM threat and not MX,TX, or LA. And believe I wish this thing would go EAST...like out to sea.

And the computer models below his page show a more east than what it was showing but I don't see where it is going toward the East Coast. Would appreciate a mets opinion on this?

[Sanibel]

Derek can't be all that bad if he golfs.

[jlauderdal]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=477&tstamp=200608

Maybe you should all read what the Jeff Masters has to say...Pretty solid synopsis.

an interesting read to say the least, lets see what recon finds and how things develop the next 6 hours.

[cajungal]

I think this will be more of a gulf problem and not an east coast problem. Unless the center closes off really far to the north. I still think this blob 97L is gulf bound.

[Beam]

Easy on the gulf predictions, people. This thing has to develop first.

That said, there's definitely a closed circulation to the west and north-west of the convection. If it can get some thunderstorms over it, it'll probably be classified.

[Stormcenter]

Easy on the gulf predictions, people. This thing has to develop first.

That said, there's definitely a closed circulation to the west and north-west of the convection. If it can get some thunderstorms over it, it'll probably be classified.

Yep I agree. All we have now is maybe a borderline depression at best.
I would also not go as far as to put 97L in the GOM or send it up the East Coast. There is just too much that can change between now and the time it gets around those areas when it's movement might be affected.

[CajunMama]

Easy on the gulf predictions, people. This thing has to develop first.

That said, there's definitely a closed circulation to the west and north-west of the convection. If it can get some thunderstorms over it, it'll probably be classified.

Yep I agree. All we have now is maybe a borderline depression at best.
I would also not go as far as to put 97L in the GOM or send it up the East Coast. There is just too much that can change between now and the time it gets around those areas when it's movement might be affected.

I totally agree. Too much cart before the horse. Now i know everyone likes to speculate but my goodness!

[Derek Ortt]

wasn't directed at you tony

only those making the generalized statements that fast systems cannot form

[boca]

If the recaon found a SSW wind at 27mph would it be classified as a depression or would it be an outflow boundary from a thunderstorm the recon just happen to stumble on.

[fci]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=477&tstamp=200608

Maybe you should all read what the Jeff Masters has to say...Pretty solid synopsis.

Hmmm...from Dr Masters Blog:

What the new center means for this storm
The separation of its center from the coast removes the primary impediment to intensification for 97L. It looks more likely that this storm will develop into at least a strong tropical storm, and probably a hurricane. The track such a hurricane might take is highly uncertain, but the more northerly center increases the risk for Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast.

Now with that said...I really dont like a more northern reformation...which is what happend... DIE!!! it better not be no East Coast storm...it better not be a storm period...

The part about a more northerly center was from his PREVIOUS blog not the latest blog. He said that since the new model data with relocated center won't be out until evening, he was repeating his previous blog from this morning.

[Brent]

If the recaon found a SSW wind at 27mph would it be classified as a depression or would it be an outflow boundary from a thunderstorm the recon just happen to stumble on.

I don't know... but Claudette in 2003 was named because of a SSW wind after hours of recon searching. It was in the Central Caribbean and moving very rapidly(around 25-30 mph).

[Derek Ortt]

I think recon also found a full vortex in Claudette, though I may be mistaken

[HURAKAN]

If the recaon found a SSW wind at 27mph would it be classified as a depression or would it be an outflow boundary from a thunderstorm the recon just happen to stumble on.

I don't know... but Claudette in 2003 was named because of a SSW wind after hours of recon searching. It was in the Central Caribbean and moving very rapidly(around 25-30 mph).

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAS A MESS OF
CONFLICTING SIGNALS TODAY. ON ONE SIDE...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE
WAS THAT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 45 KT FROM TAFB. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH MADE SEVERAL PASSES THROUGH THE
APPARENT CENTER AND FOUND NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. JUST AS THE PLANE
WAS LEAVING THE AREA AT 18Z IT FOUND 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
INDICATING A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND PRESSURES OF
1006-1007 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE WAVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE. THE 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
57 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 280/25. CLAUDETTE IS SOUTH OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN A FAST EAST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR ANOTHER 24 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE
STORM WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER AFTER 48 HR AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN U. S.. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING
A RAPID WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY
DECELERATION AND A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY TO BE
WATCHED IS THAT THE TROUGH COULD TURN CLAUDETTE MORE NORTHWARD THAN
FORECAST. HOWEVER... CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE WILL BE
WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN 72-96 HR...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SLOWER
AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION.

CLAUDETTE CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN ALL
DIRECTIONS...AND AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT RUN UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE WEST IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL
THE CENTER REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER SOME WEAKENING
OVER LAND...THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO.

WHILE THE WIND RADII ARE FAIRLY SMALL...OTHER NEAR-GALE WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM
CLAUDETTE. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER AND THE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 15.0N 71.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 15.8N 74.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 16.9N 79.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 18.0N 82.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 19.3N 86.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 92.5W 50 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 13/1800Z 24.0N 94.5W 55 KT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lets see what they find over the whole system. I would check about 50 miles north closer to the LLC southern side. Also get some wind data in stuff. Then we can see if it can be upgraded.

[wxman57]

Grenada winds now southwest at 13 kts, 1009mb.