Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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miamicanes177
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#301 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:00 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (AL052006) ON 20060825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060825 0000 060825 1200 060826 0000 060826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 63.2W 13.4N 65.2W 14.1N 67.0W 15.0N 68.9W
BAMM 13.0N 63.2W 13.7N 65.4W 14.5N 67.2W 15.4N 69.2W
A98E 13.0N 63.2W 13.4N 66.5W 14.0N 69.4W 15.0N 71.8W
LBAR 13.0N 63.2W 13.7N 66.1W 14.2N 69.1W 14.8N 72.2W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060827 0000 060828 0000 060829 0000 060830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 71.1W 19.3N 75.9W 21.2N 80.4W 22.3N 84.5W
BAMM 16.7N 71.3W 19.4N 75.8W 21.7N 79.6W 23.5N 82.7W
A98E 16.4N 73.9W 19.3N 78.6W 21.8N 83.3W 24.1N 87.4W
LBAR 15.9N 75.1W 19.1N 80.1W 23.1N 84.3W 23.2N 85.7W
SHIP 59KTS 75KTS 87KTS 93KTS
DSHP 59KTS 75KTS 87KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 63.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 60.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 56.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 155NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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#302 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:00 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (AL052006) ON 20060825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060825 0000 060825 1200 060826 0000 060826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 63.2W 13.4N 65.2W 14.1N 67.0W 15.0N 68.9W
BAMM 13.0N 63.2W 13.7N 65.4W 14.5N 67.2W 15.4N 69.2W
A98E 13.0N 63.2W 13.4N 66.5W 14.0N 69.4W 15.0N 71.8W
LBAR 13.0N 63.2W 13.7N 66.1W 14.2N 69.1W 14.8N 72.2W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060827 0000 060828 0000 060829 0000 060830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 71.1W 19.3N 75.9W 21.2N 80.4W 22.3N 84.5W
BAMM 16.7N 71.3W 19.4N 75.8W 21.7N 79.6W 23.5N 82.7W
A98E 16.4N 73.9W 19.3N 78.6W 21.8N 83.3W 24.1N 87.4W
LBAR 15.9N 75.1W 19.1N 80.1W 23.1N 84.3W 23.2N 85.7W
SHIP 59KTS 75KTS 87KTS 93KTS
DSHP 59KTS 75KTS 87KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 63.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 60.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 56.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 155NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#303 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:01 pm

Sanibel wrote:Storm size appears to be growing.


Had the same thoughts..

Posed this question at another forum...

Does the structure as it moves away from SA, look to be a rather large circulation? Or is it too early to tell?
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#304 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:01 pm

93 kts from the ship
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#305 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:02 pm

I would not trust any of the models at the moment, also the system may slow down as it nears the western carribean which could change things a lot on its eventual path.
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#306 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:02 pm

Just came back from loops. An "S" shape is taking form in the southern convection band.

Also, a visible upper outflow is apparent in the NE quadrant.
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#307 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:02 pm

Sanibel wrote:GFS 144 hour model doesn't show any Highs in the Gulf. It shows a recurve synoptic.


Link?
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#308 Postby lester » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:02 pm

Trugunzn wrote:93 kts from the ship

whoa.. :eek:
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#309 Postby jwayne » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (AL052006) ON 20060825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060825 0000 060825 1200 060826 0000 060826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 63.2W 13.4N 65.2W 14.1N 67.0W 15.0N 68.9W
BAMM 13.0N 63.2W 13.7N 65.4W 14.5N 67.2W 15.4N 69.2W
A98E 13.0N 63.2W 13.4N 66.5W 14.0N 69.4W 15.0N 71.8W
LBAR 13.0N 63.2W 13.7N 66.1W 14.2N 69.1W 14.8N 72.2W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060827 0000 060828 0000 060829 0000 060830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 71.1W 19.3N 75.9W 21.2N 80.4W 22.3N 84.5W
BAMM 16.7N 71.3W 19.4N 75.8W 21.7N 79.6W 23.5N 82.7W
A98E 16.4N 73.9W 19.3N 78.6W 21.8N 83.3W 24.1N 87.4W
LBAR 15.9N 75.1W 19.1N 80.1W 23.1N 84.3W 23.2N 85.7W
SHIP 59KTS 75KTS 87KTS 93KTS
DSHP 59KTS 75KTS 87KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 63.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 60.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 56.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 155NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


that's a pretty uniform set of models. Texas can't like that.
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#310 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:04 pm

GFS run:


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2006082418&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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#311 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:05 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
Sanibel wrote:GFS 144 hour model doesn't show any Highs in the Gulf. It shows a recurve synoptic.



I saw that Sanibel and that is probably why the GFDL turns it more northerly. Lets hope that ridge that was expected to be over the eastern Gulf materializes.


I explained the GFDL track a few pages back. It has a tendency to take shear into the steering equation too much....hence why it was putting it east of PR two days ago...it saw southerly shear and combined it with steering flow.

Now that can happen...but the GFDL overdoes it.
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#312 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:05 pm

Image
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#313 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:08 pm

Image
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#314 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:08 pm



Thanks Sanibel. Yup... if the 144 hr GFS is right, (which i know is highly debatable pro mets) any point in the gulf could potentially be at risk.
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#315 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:09 pm

Luis, that map is the 18Z. The 0Z suite is out. Keep an eye on the medium BAMM.....shifting north a bit.
Last edited by Steve H. on Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#316 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:09 pm

No Chris this time friends...
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#317 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:10 pm

Steve H. wrote:Luis, that map is the 18Z.


Refresh until it updates.
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#318 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:14 pm

Wow 93 kts. This is a major threat folks.
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#319 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:15 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2006082418-invest05l/slp21.png

Gfdl doesnt make sense it pretty goes from the eastern tip cuba to the western tip and not fall apart and makes it into cat 3 in middle of gulf



*EDITED BY RAINBAND TO REPLACE IMAGE WITH LINK *
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#320 Postby benny » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:16 pm

whoa that GFDL would get people excited.. but let's see if it survives first
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