TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[BowMeHunter1974]

Sure it doesn't look good now, but I epected nothing more as it's in the Eastern Carribean, give it time, and Ernesto will be fine.

[Air Force Met]

Looking at the visible the LLC running away from the convection would be centered around 18/67.4, is that where thet are saying the center is??

No...it's down near 14N...

[Wx_Warrior]

To defend him, he said the same thing about Chris and lets say 50% on here laughed at him and said the same thing.

People need to stop watching CNN Weather.

Anything has a chance. Message boards and forums are for people to give their opinion. He did get a BA in Met @ Miss State. He carries a little credit with him...

Sorry for the rant!

[ConvergenceZone]

It's over!!!! Same thing happened to chris. 95% chance it will not make it!!

I can't believe A pro Met wright 95% of not making it. Shear is moving east plus the storm is slower. The gap between the shear and storm is alot bigger. I dont really see this being over.

well, he must know what he's talking about or see something others can't if he's confident enough to give the percentage that high....

[KFDM Meteorologist]

If i'm wrong and it survives i'll be the first to admit..

[Stormcenter]

It's hard to ignore what ahead for TD#5 oh I mean Mr.E.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Jim Hughes]

Folks, let's wait and see the 5PM discussion, maybe the NHC forecasters see something that we are not taking into account. ie. Maybe they feel it will reform further east were the MLC is located.

Just food for thought!

They probably named it because it was a TS for a few hours earlier. They probably won't have much good to say about its short term future tho.

Was there ever a doubt that they would come back empty handed ?

[Wx_Warrior]

It's still early not just with Ernesto Madril but in the season. SOme need to stop taking stuff so personal. How many have you been involved with? They are not fun my friend.

[curtadams]

I cant beleive some of the people in here are writing this off, plus a Pro Met saying its 95% done. It is way far from over. Shear has been moving west and the storm is slower, A new LLC may form back in the convection and if if holds on all the way to western Carribean, we will have our first hurricane of the season. Way to early Lota stuff can happen now.

I think the MLC and LLC are still connected, judging by the MLC's recovery. If I'm right the current recon pass will report a substantial temp difference in the next vortex, as opposed to the equilibrium in the first pass (which I predict went over the warm air updraft being sheared to the SE).

[destro34]

18/67.4? is it heading or turning north ?..... help !!! need info,please, some light to this poor newbie man

[Sanibel]

OK...this always makes me laugh. Storms don't have hearts...they aren't fighters...they are systems. They face patterns that either deepen them or kill them.

Unless the shear weakens...that nocturnal refire will not be over the center where it can do any good.

I'm glad you answered this that way. You couldn't be more wrong. Sometimes technically excellent observers can miss the subtle.

The reason why some storms have stronger "heart" than others is probably provable. In my years of observing cyclones in the Atlantic I've seen a tendency of some storms to possess an intangible extra quality that gives them something above other systems. While I agree a cyclone is the sum of its scientific surroundings I have seen disturbances of equal magnitude (pressure, convection, dvorak, circulation etc) get impacted by the exact same amounts of environmental negatives and react differently. I'm talking about identical disturbances that enter identical synoptics. Some survive and some don't. Therein is the proof of storm "heart". Scientifically, it could be a particular combination of favorable variables that work in favor of one equal system over the other - but never the less that is the same thing. Remember, even NHC admits it doesn't know everything about cyclones.


Your inference that uncentered nocturnal refire is meaningless goes against the numerous examples of dislocated refires that then went on to become major storms. I could point out dozens.

[MWatkins]

Looking at SHIPS details for 18Z...looks like the model is counting on 2 things to allow for intensification...reduced westerly shear and a large
increase in heat potential:

Code: Select all

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   8.   9.  10.  11.  11.  12.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   2.   3.   6.  10.  14.  17.  21.  23.  24.  25.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   4.   6.   7.   7.   7.   7.   7.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  500-300 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -2.
  850 MB ENV. VORT.      0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   6.   6.   6.   5.   4.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       3.   7.  11.  16.  24.  33.  40.  43.  45.  46.  47.  47.


It shows 22 knots of vertical shear from the west decreasing to 18 in 12 hours...and to very low numbers by 48 hours. But 25 knots of the intensity increase is attributed to the heat content in the NW caribbean sea. Just because the model is strengthening the system over very warm water...that is not going to happen if shear becomes a negative contributor...or if there's nothing closed off where the water warms.

The shear is the problem for Ernesto...so in some ways today is way more important than Sunday...because Ernesto's fate is being decided right now.

MW[/code]

[KFDM Meteorologist]

What i meant was by saying 95% was when it gets seperated like this and you still have shear it's very hard to re develop.

[AZRainman]

I must say this credible division of forecasts about whether Ernesto is to be or not to be is jolly good fun.

Shows us all that no one has yet to invent the crystal weather ball and that humanity has much to learn.

[Scott_inVA]

Errr...I'm doing all this on the road today but notice the Navy site dropped NONAME for Ernesto. The recon and model maps on my site just switched from L to a TS symbol. Embarassed to ask ...did I miss something, is this a TS at 5PM?

Scott

[gatorcane]

I agree its fate is being decided today because the TUTT is doing what it can to save the US right now...

thank the TUTT if it succeeds!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Errr...I'm doing all this on the road today but notice the Navy site dropped NONAME for Ernesto. The recon and model maps on my site just switched from L to a TS symbol. Embarassed to ask ...did I miss something, is this a TS at 5PM?

Scott

NRL says so

[Brent]

Errr...I'm doing all this on the road today but notice the Navy site dropped NONAME for Ernesto. The recon and model maps on my site just switched from L to a TS symbol. Embarassed to ask ...did I miss something, is this a TS at 5PM?

Scott

The 18z models called it Ernesto too.

[frederic79]

I see the much talked about llc to the nw of the apparant mlc center. I also notice what looks like low level clouds streaming into the mlc from the coast of South America. Is it entirely inconceivable for there to be a second, new llc forming under the mlc convection as the old one (naked swirl) dissipates? If so, be nice...

[fci]

only that it's a diagnostic tool.

Thus, my point about the shear tendency. Even THAT seems a poor forecasting tool to me right now. Things seem to change so much from day to day. There is too much instability to be able to predict anything with any degree of confidence, it seems.[/quote]

This is a great example of quoting an EXTREMELY long prior post that takes up a ton of space.

I edited out almost all of what you quoted to show how much smaller the quote could have been. Then I edited out much of your quote so this did not go 1/2 a page.

I had to hit the scroll bar twice to get to what you were saying
Please heed what the Mods and others have said and limit the quotes so we don't scroll a half a page to get to your message!