Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[StormWarning1]

So much for the 95% chance "this system doesn't make it". It's most certainly holding it's own tonight and I'm afraid the gulf coast will have to deal with a major hurricane next week. There is very deep convection firing CLOSE to the LLC, this isn't a Chris situation unfortunately.

The LLC is at the very western edge of the convection, not the center of it.

[cinlfla]

Link for GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006082518-ernesto05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[curtadams]

It's at 500mb...in the mid-levels...and its coming from the NW...right at the system.

Mid level shear is much more damaging than upper level shear.

As, so mid level shear isn't common? I have never heard about it until this year. Does it only occur with TUTT's?

Actually, it isn't all that common. Go to the GFS forecast at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ and compare 850-200 shear to 850-500 shear. MUCH less of the mid shear. I don't understand why it happens; this time of year it's mostly transitory and in small areas. Chris was really odd; at least according to the GFS this little spot of mid shear popped up right on top of him for 12 hours orso and he was basically dead.

[Derek Ortt]

Not changing the shear forecast

it just got rid of the very destructive ML shear

it still has the UL shear to contend itself with

I'd suggest everyone read the DISCUSSION with the forecast tonight, I will shortly explain everything

[rnbaida]

Not changing the shear forecast

it just got rid of the very destructive ML shear

it still has the UL shear to contend itself with

I'd suggest everyone read the DISCUSSION with the forecast tonight, I will shortly explain everything

so are you saying that the shear will tear it apart?

[jwayne]

Link for GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006082518-ernesto05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

man, if that verifies, Tx/Western La is going to get absolutely hammered. That's no good.

[cinlfla]

I know I wanted to cry when I saw that, I feel really bad for the gulf coast residents.

[ROCK]

.... but that GFDL is quite scary....

nasty, little model run if I may say. 137knots is nutso, IMO....but it will be going over some of the LPC and I am sure a WE somewhere before landfall.

[jwayne]

I know I wanted to cry when I saw that, I feel really bad for the gulf coast residents.

you ought to be here in houston looking at that. Makes me want to throw up.

[Stormcenter]

Link for GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006082518-ernesto05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

man, if that verifies, Tx/Western La is going to get absolutely hammered. That's no good.

It won't verify.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Link for GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006082518-ernesto05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

man, if that verifies, Tx/Western La is going to get absolutely hammered. That's no good.

I agree that if it verifies, then yes, but as of this moment I am not siding with the GFDL and will wait to see if future runs continue to show similar scenarios. It is certainly a scary looking run though.

[Air Force Met]

Link for GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006082518-ernesto05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GULP.

OK...the NHC talked about this as well...they were puzzled that none of the models strengthened the system in the GOM...and all of them leveled off the intensity. The environment was right...they couldn't figure it out.

Well...here's one now that does.

[canegrl04]

LA/MS/AL just can't take another hit by a major cane.They have bearly recovered from last year. Another cat 3 or greater will destroy the area for years to come

[Deputy Van Halen]

I was looking at the NHC's "Wind speed probability table" for Ernesto, and I am thoroughly confused.

According to the table, there is a 10% chance it will dissipate within 36 hours. But there is only a 5% chance it will dissipate within 48 hours. Huh? Can it "dissipate" then come back? If my arithmetic is right, there is a 5% chance of doing just that between 36 and 48 hours from now. What am I missing?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... able?large

[ROCK]

Link for GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006082518-ernesto05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

man, if that verifies, Tx/Western La is going to get absolutely hammered. That's no good.

It won't verify.

hopefully not.....thank goodness my company pays for my gas.....

[rnbaida]

why isnt the shear that to the west of the system moving??? this system will get ripped apart!!!

[Derek Ortt]

I'm saying the same thing as I have said all day

I will have the new forecast out in less than 45 minutes, I will explain things there, just dont panic when reading it and read EVERYTHING

[skysummit]

Link for GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006082518-ernesto05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GULP.

OK...the NHC talked about this as well...they were puzzled that none of the models strengthened the system in the GOM...and all of them leveled off the intensity. The environment was right...they couldn't figure it out.

Well...here's one now that does.

I believe I got knumb for a minute or two....wait, where am I? Wow. I knew the possiblity would exist for another 4 or 5 in the gulf, I just didn't think I'd actually see the models begin picking up on it yet.

[Stormcenter]

Link for GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006082518-ernesto05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GULP.

OK...the NHC talked about this as well...they were puzzled that none of the models strengthened the system in the GOM...and all of them leveled off the intensity. The environment was right...they couldn't figure it out.

Well...here's one now that does.

I have a feeling it will be further west than the GDFL has it (if it survives)but of course it so early to really put too much emphasis on what it says or any of the other models. We are talking 5-6 days out here folks at least.

[Scorpion]

If I were in Houston right now I'd be pretty nervous with that GFDL run. At least its only one run though.