TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[bostonseminole]

no kidding.. I am not sure why people are freaking out about the models.. we will no know till it enters the GOM

[Josephine96]

The entire GOM just needs to remain vigilant and watch him..

[rnbaida]

the blues are gone and the purple is shrinking.

[seaswing]

12Z model plots here, minus the BAMs and climo models. Note the CONU (very good consensus model) in dark blue indicates a NNE turn toward Mobile bay at the end.

So there is a chance this storm could go into Mobile Bay at the end? Now that is something I do not want to hear considering I live on Mobile Bay.

Hey Beach...be prepared... do whatever you need to do and get a plan...go north though

[Mac]

The storm is changing its orientation, but I see no decrease in the amount of convection. In fact, the deep convection is persisting in the daylight hours...a potentially ominous sign.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[hurricanesfans27]

Im 100 miles from mobile bay. that is not a good place for this one to end up

[HollynLA]

one thing that might make those in N.O. and MS/AL feel safer:

The models are usually very incorrect at 5 days out. The chance that this set of exact runs verifies is slim to none. I've noticed that early on, it is usually the outlier models that end up being the best.

[Sanibel]

Ernesto appears deep with a permanent CDO. The center is near the left flat edge on the left. It is taking a new shear impact while doing a diurnal pulse down.

This is what you don't want to see if you live on the Gulf. Watch for IR black-tops tonight.


I believe it is strong enough to be moderating this new shear from the ULL receding in front of it.

[Brent]

[HouTXmetro]

one thing that might make those in N.O. and MS/AL feel safer:

The models are usually very incorrect at 5 days out. The chance that this set of exact runs verifies is slim to none. I've noticed that early on, it is usually the outlier models that end up being the best.

I guess you don't feel any safer...

[Opal storm]

The models are useless right now for predicting where along the GC this will hit.They have been shifting east and west over and over again,there has been no consistency.

[Extremeweatherguy]

one thing that might make those in N.O. and MS/AL feel safer:

The models are usually very incorrect at 5 days out. The chance that this set of exact runs verifies is slim to none. I've noticed that early on, it is usually the outlier models that end up being the best.

what, you disagree? Go look back at any storm and try to find their model runs for 5 days out. I can assure you most of them were wrong.

[HouTXmetro]

one thing that might make those in N.O. and MS/AL feel safer:

The models are usually very incorrect at 5 days out. The chance that this set of exact runs verifies is slim to none. I've noticed that early on, it is usually the outlier models that end up being the best.

what, you disagree? Go look back at any storm and try to find their model runs for 5 days out. I can assure you most of them were wrong.

Can you give us a link to the NHC archives for models?

[Mac]

Ernesto appears deep with a permanent CDO. The center is near the left flat edge on the left. It is taking a new shear impact while doing a diurnal pulse down.

This is what you don't want to see if you live on the Gulf. Watch for IR black-tops tonight.


I believe it is strong enough to be moderating this new shear from the ULL receding in front of it.

Agreed. If Ernie can maintain his CDO today look for him to attain cat 1 status during the diurnal period this evening. Quite frankly, I am far more concerned with the shear in the area improving his outflow than I am that it will hinder his development.

[hurricanesfans27]

one thing that might make those in N.O. and MS/AL feel safer:

The models are usually very incorrect at 5 days out. The chance that this set of exact runs verifies is slim to none. I've noticed that early on, it is usually the outlier models that end up being the best.

what, you disagree? Go look back at any storm and try to find their model runs for 5 days out. I can assure you most of them were wrong.

i remember ivan wasnt supposed to be in Mobile in 2004.. but it went up mobile bay and trashed the panhandle

[Josephine96]

Models are just conversation starters right now It's way too early..

[HollynLA]

what, you disagree? Go look back at any storm and try to find their model runs for 5 days out. I can assure you most of them were wrong.

Yeah, how could I ever doubt you.

[PTPatrick]

11AM has the 5 days position turning a cat 3 right into Katrina Land

[bostonseminole]

the blues are gone and the purple is shrinking.

that happens

[rnbaida]

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 26, 2006


...Ernesto continues west-northwestward over the Caribbean...new
warnings and watches issued...

at 11 am AST...1500z...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of
Hispaniola from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the
southwestern tip of Haiti.

Interests in elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...Cuba...
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...and the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico...should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 15.1 north...longitude 71.2 west or about 250
miles...405 km...south-southwest of Santo Domingo in the Dominican
Republic and about 420 miles...680 km...east-southeast of Kingston
Jamaica.

Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr
...And this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. This motion should bring the core of Ernesto south of the
southern coast of Hispaniola today...and near Jamaica on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and Ernesto could be near hurricane strength as it passes near
Jamaica.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Tides of up to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected on Jamaica
as the center of Ernesto approaches.
Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches...with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches...are expected in association with Ernesto
across Jamaica. Across portions of Haiti and the Dominican
Republic...rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected...with
isolated amounts of 8 inches possible. The outer bands of Ernesto
may produce 1 to 3 inch rainfall amounts across Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands.

Repeating the 1100 am AST position...15.1 N...71.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50
mph. Minimum central pressure...997 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven