Opal storm wrote:lol,doesn't that NHC track look so familar?Ivanhater wrote:Ok I have been away for a while and come back with this staring me in the face....what made my area the target all of a sudden?
unfortunately yes
TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)
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hurricanesfans27
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Ivanhater
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Opal storm wrote:lol,doesn't that NHC track look so familar?Ivanhater wrote:Ok I have been away for a while and come back with this staring me in the face....what made my area the target all of a sudden?
Lol. well I just hope the track keeps shifting around and not lock into place yet...
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Michael
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AL Chili Pepper
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I may be splitting hairs, but how can the graph show it still moving NNW @ 26.9N while the plots show it moving NNNE? Oh well, that's a long time from now and it'll change again.
<edit> never mind...looking at the GFDN.
<edit> never mind...looking at the GFDN.
Last edited by AL Chili Pepper on Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Furious George
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Poor Accuweather - the first two landfalling storms of the year may just land in their 'low' odds section. Ooops!
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promo-ad.as ... 06_graphic
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promo-ad.as ... 06_graphic
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gatorcane
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Guys I am really questioning the strength of this "ridge."
Here we are again today in south Florida with storms about ready to move in from the west - a sign the east wind pattern is still not here and the steering currents are minimal. I think there is a ridge but it may not be the type of ridge we saw in 2004 and last year with Dennis.
This ridge seems weaker..
Here we are again today in south Florida with storms about ready to move in from the west - a sign the east wind pattern is still not here and the steering currents are minimal. I think there is a ridge but it may not be the type of ridge we saw in 2004 and last year with Dennis.
This ridge seems weaker..
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What have we learned today?
I think the 00z runs tonight will provide the most reliable runs yet. We should have more continuity with the models later tonight and going foreward.
The facts:
(1)The overall trend today with the models has trended east.
(2) Due to a reformation of the center and/or movement Ernesto is slightly further North than expected.
Based on these factors and the forecasted overall synoptic environment the threats to the western gulf have decreased somewhat. The central Gulf coast remains unchanged. The eastern gulf threat has increased to include the west coast of Florida and the keys even those these area remain low target zones overall at this point.
**Bottom line the trend is your friend and this is what we have this evening. This is a very fluid situation and the next 6-12 hours will give us a beter idea in determining the areas of greater risk.
The facts:
(1)The overall trend today with the models has trended east.
(2) Due to a reformation of the center and/or movement Ernesto is slightly further North than expected.
Based on these factors and the forecasted overall synoptic environment the threats to the western gulf have decreased somewhat. The central Gulf coast remains unchanged. The eastern gulf threat has increased to include the west coast of Florida and the keys even those these area remain low target zones overall at this point.
**Bottom line the trend is your friend and this is what we have this evening. This is a very fluid situation and the next 6-12 hours will give us a beter idea in determining the areas of greater risk.
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Extremeweatherguy
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Stormcenter
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ronjon wrote:Does anyone notice that not one global model really intensifies this storm in the GOM? Seems strange to me - why?
Unfavorable conditions maybe?
Last edited by Stormcenter on Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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