Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[El Nino]

According to this windswath, I'm really NOT seeing Ernesto tracking so long over Cuba. It will track over Eastern Cuba, and not for a long time, except, if there's a wobble. But it's still gaining latitude and I'm more seeing something to cross the E tip of Cuba and going over the Bahamas at this rythm.

[johngaltfla]

I know already the axiom "don't watch the center line" but the center line has landfall on my location.

So if I'm not on here much in the next 48 hours, you'll know I'm doing like Ernie and getting my you know what together.

[SWFLA_CANE]

According to this windswath, I'm really NOT seeing Ernesto tracking so long over Cuba. It will track over Eastern Cuba, and not for a long time, except, if there's a wobble. But it's still gaining latitude and I'm more seeing something to cross the E tip of Cuba and going over the Bahamas at this rythm.

If it followed the same path it would not spend much time over Cuba. The forecast, however is for it to take a more wnw track when it approaches Cuba.

[Dean4Storms]

Everyone please keep in mind that the cone is there for a reason. The 5 day position averages between 200-300 miles error. That said, Ernesto could be anywhere from Mobile to east of Florida on day number 5!! THere are still some uncertainties with this track.

[Innotech]

According to this windswath, I'm really NOT seeing Ernesto tracking so long over Cuba. It will track over Eastern Cuba, and not for a long time, except, if there's a wobble. But it's still gaining latitude and I'm more seeing something to cross the E tip of Cuba and going over the Bahamas at this rythm.

If it followed the same path it would not spend much time over Cuba. The forecast, however is for it to take a more wnw track when it approaches Cuba.

IF it catches the ridge.
Also consider the possibility of another center relocation, further northeast into the convection, and that may put it between the two islands.
Theres a lot riding on the nest 12 hours with this storm. It may end up doing something unexpected.

[Typhoon]

I am not completely sold on a Florida Peninsula landfall. The Rockies shortwave that is supposed to erode the ridge over the southeastern U.S. has not really been that impressive. Also, looking at a water vapor loop, it may not dig as far southeast as the models advertise it will. In addition, Ernesto seems to be wobbling back towards the WNW. It may come closer to the north Jamaican coastline than the NHC track would suggest. A Florida Peninsula landfall may be most probable, but everyone east of New Orleans still has to watch Ernesto.

[Opal storm]

No way this is going east of Florida,it would have to turn due north or even NNE to be able to do that.It's been on a steady NW track which will take it through central/eastern Cuba.

[saints63213]

My thinking on the storm is this the reason for the jog north is mainly do to the fact of the tutt low to the west slowing down and interacting with Ernesto once it moves more westerly(looks like that happening as I type) the storm will then start tracking in the WNW direction again and cross Cuba on the western side near Havana. truly it all depends on where the high build in I don't buy the high being weak because this entire hurricane season the southern highs have been very strong and that a big reason why we haven't had a Hurricane build until now so to say this is going to be the first high to break down and it totally breaks down I just don't buy it. Right now IF I was in the Pensacola area I would be getting me hurricane preparedness ready.


I would also like to add two things with the storm looking rough right now we could have a center relocation and it very easily could be to the south east of were it is located now. Number two look at the dry air to the north no way this system crosses eastern Cuba NO WAY. ready to be ripped.......

[El Nino]

According to this windswath, I'm really NOT seeing Ernesto tracking so long over Cuba. It will track over Eastern Cuba, and not for a long time, except, if there's a wobble. But it's still gaining latitude and I'm more seeing something to cross the E tip of Cuba and going over the Bahamas at this rythm.

If it followed the same path it would not spend much time over Cuba. The forecast, however is for it to take a more wnw track when it approaches Cuba.

IF it catches the ridge.
Also consider the possibility of another center relocation, further northeast into the convection, and that may put it between the two islands.
Theres a lot riding on the nest 12 hours with this storm. It may end up doing something unexpected.

So, everything is possible. But WHY is it gaining more latitude than expected ? First, we thought a MX landfall, then a TX one, after that a LA one, now a FLA one, and ...

[ALhurricane]

I think AFM did a good job in explaining a pro met's position, so I won't try to be redundant, but I will say a few things.

We as pro met's take time out of our busy schedules, that often include shiftwork, to contribute to this board. We have no personal gain from this board except for the satisfaction of contributing to it. That is why it bothers me to no end to see a pro met get bashed by somebody over a 'gut feeling' or 'hunch', especially when I see where they live (meaning the hunch usually leads to a storm track to where they live.) I, for the life of me, cannot figure that one out. If you disagree with me, that is fine, just back it up with some data. Have I been wrong? Heck yeah. I have been humbled many times, but I don't need somebody posting away how wrong I was. I can figure that out for myself and learn from it.

Given the data and the position of the storm yesterday, I would not change any of my opinions in hindsight. So an apology is not in order. What has happened is several relocations of the center which have changed the entire ballgame. Don't believe for one second the GFS actually got it right. I think it got darn lucky. It's 12z solution yesterday did not make meteorological sense based on a number of synoptic factors. The GFS also cannot forecast center relocations, so that is why I said it got lucky. Okay, my rant is done with.

Now onto today. I am very interested in seeing today's global output. 12z upper air analysis places a 593dm ridge over the SE U.S. The 500mb height over Miami is 591dm with a east wind. Therefore...there may be some more WNW than NW motion in the next 24 to 48 hours. This will be critical because it will determine how much land interaction there is with Cuba. Just something to watch.

[Scorpion]

Actually, the storm looks alot better now I think.

[Evil Jeremy]

can we please have a pro-met here to please tell us what they think of the storm after Cuba?

[Deenac813]

The new track for 11 am shows the storm now going over the Keys in 2 days? When will watches go up?

[THead]

Looks like he is trying to develop a strong core right now, with some serious bands on the east side. The west side looks kind of dry though. If the core develops and he can wrap some of that energy to the east around him........I just don't like the look of what appears to be a pinpoint eye forming on the vis sat. Brings back bad memories.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/05L.ERNESTO/vis/geo/1km_zoom/full/Latest.html

[Brent]

The new track for 11 am shows the storm now going over the Keys in 2 days? When will watches go up?

Maybe at 5pm...

[Innotech]

According to this windswath, I'm really NOT seeing Ernesto tracking so long over Cuba. It will track over Eastern Cuba, and not for a long time, except, if there's a wobble. But it's still gaining latitude and I'm more seeing something to cross the E tip of Cuba and going over the Bahamas at this rythm.

If it followed the same path it would not spend much time over Cuba. The forecast, however is for it to take a more wnw track when it approaches Cuba.

IF it catches the ridge.
Also consider the possibility of another center relocation, further northeast into the convection, and that may put it between the two islands.
Theres a lot riding on the nest 12 hours with this storm. It may end up doing something unexpected.

So, everything is possible. But WHY is it gaining more latitude than expected ? First, we thought a MX landfall, then a TX one, after that a LA one, now a FLA one, and ...

I think its still heading NW. But interaction with land and a slow overall motion may be drawing it towards land as its eastern side gets caught up in the mountains. This is just my observation and Id reallyl ike a Pro Met to weigh in on this particular situation. Also if the center relocates further into the storm, it may change track. Much of the convection is northeast of the storm, so when it comes out of the hispaniola area it may not be heading towards mid-cuba anymore. But like I said this is all just amateur observation and could be totally wrong. Just throwing my 2 cents in here FWIW.

[curtadams]

Looks to me like it's trying to do a Wilma but Hispaniola is saving us. That line of intense convection going SSW on the east side looks like it "should" be a monster feeder band - but it's feeding the mountains of Hispaniola instead. Unfortunately that's a very bad place to get such heavy rain. Shear must be picking up based on how the convection is shifting N but the center seems to be holding track.

[canes04]

Innotech,

I'm with you on this track, it may go over eastern Cuba and
emerge SSE of Miami. Does anyone have Eastern Cuba terrain maps?

[jasons2k]

I am off for the duration of the day (family stuff), but I will just say this. When I check the board again tonight nothing - and I mean nothing - would surprise me. People all along the GOM coast should keep an eye on Ernesto until he makes his mind up and we have some consistency with the models.

[chris_fit]

IMO the storm has really shrunk. It has a very tight CDO now. It's tiny compared to what it was a few days ago.... granted it was unorgaized then.