TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[cpdaman]

ernie mesiter better start moving north westerly soon other wise he could spend a good amount of time over the fl straits since he could go through the central keys and just off the sw florida coast before coming back in

[Canelaw99]

TY PT....that would definitely not be a good thing...reminds me of Frances I think it was, or Jeanne - the one that seemed to take FOREVER to finally hit the coast...it just crept towards the coast.

[bucman1]

Thank you Tampa.

[CronkPSU]

still inland according to the NHC, and still a TS

[krisj]

11pm NHC says TS for SC. No longer hurricane.

[wjs3]

T3.0? sure that was for this system, lol? That's VERY high.

Yes

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/tropclass.txt

[Jim Cantore]

Is it just me, Or does this look alot like Hurricane Georges when it was coming over this area?

[Wx_Warrior]

I see heavy rain for florida the next few....week?

[jaxfladude]

11pm NHC says TS for SC. No longer hurricane.

For now, hope it verifies........or better a naked swirl

[miamicanes177]

We dodged a major bullet. A few days ago it looked like a major hurricane for the gulf coast. Now it will be a weak tropical storm. Thank goodness. Time to get some sleep again.

[TampaFl]

[CronkPSU]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 18

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2006



Air Force reconnaissance data through 00z showed that the center of
Ernesto was still inland. Highest winds from the flight just
offshore were 46 kt about 6 hours ago...and more recently 37 kt.
Based on these data...Ernesto will be held at minimal tropical
storm strength. The reconnaissance data showed that the center was
inland...and since that time...Cuban radar and surface observations
from Camaguay indicate that the center remains inland. The radar
data show a gradual deterioration in the organization of
Ernesto...and satellite imagery shows only very limited deep
convection with the system. The upper-level low near Andros appears
to be advecting dry air into the cyclone...which may account for
the anemic convection. This low is forecast to move out and weaken
over the next 24 hours...leaving Ernesto under light easterly
shear. This would favor gradual intensification after the center
clears the coasts...but the upper winds would not seem to favor
rapid development. The official intensity forecast is a blend of
the SHIPS and GFDL guidance...and represents a downward adjustment
from the previous package. Although there is still some chance that
Ernesto could become a hurricane before reaching Florida...the
liklihood of this is diminishing.
The initial motion is 300/10. Ernesto has been moving to the left
of the previous forecast...and this requires a slight westward
shift of the forecast track. Model guidance continues to
aggressively move the mid-level high pressure offshore the
southeastern United States to allow Ernesto to turn northwestward.
Dropsonde and raob data from 00z indicate that the ridge axis is
still at 80-81w...still ahead of the cyclone's longitude. This
could mean that some slight westward track adjustments are in the
offing.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/0300z 21.7n 77.8w 35 kt
12hr VT 29/1200z 23.0n 79.1w 40 kt
24hr VT 30/0000z 24.6n 80.3w 55 kt
36hr VT 30/1200z 26.4n 80.9w 50 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/0000z 28.5n 81.0w 45 kt...inland
72hr VT 01/0000z 33.0n 80.0w 60 kt...inland
96hr VT 02/0000z 36.5n 78.5w 25 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 03/0000z 39.0n 77.5w 20 kt...extratropical

$$
forecaster Franklin

[TampaFl]

[cpdaman]

that's embarrasing oh well if promets can make mistakes....

[Canelaw99]

Ever so slight shift west in the 11pm track puts it back closer to me - peachy lol....let's just hope that stalling, creeping to the coast track doesn't pan out...

[Scorpion]

I find it funny how it just traces the coast of Cuba. I doubt it will survive the night. At its current heading, it won't reach water until it passes Havana.

[Wx_Warrior]

If it stays on Cuba...wont be anything left for it to form in SE GOM.

[gatorcane]

and a more westward track....Ernesto has some mind of his own

[Bane]

looks like it'll be awhile before it gets back over water. how high is the terrain it is currently crossing?

[gatorcane]

and better yet, we can thank yet ANOTHER ULL for potentially killing this system all together (and land of course)