TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[Extremeweatherguy]

from the orlando sent E blog

In a stunning turnaround, shuttle Atlantis is being rolled back to the launch pad after getting halfway to the Kennedy Space Center's Vehicle Assembly Building. NASA managers ordered the turnaround after the latest weather forecast showed significant weakening of Tropical Storm Ernesto. More details will be posted here when available.

3:45 p.m. update: NASA apparently will attempt a pair of launch attempts on Sept. 6-7

I hope they end up making the right call. It would sure suck to see this thing rapidly intensify and take aim on the space center.

[tampastorm]

Starting to turn N/NW looking at Key West Radar.

Have to respectfully disagree with you I am not even convinced NW. My opinion anyway

[Zackiedawg]

Looks like it's really sucking in alot of dry now...it was swiss cheese with lots of holes, but now the holes are widening and connecting, and the radar is really showing alot of breakup around the center. Visible looks weak too. Is it crashing?

[gtalum]

NASA managers ordered the turnaround after the latest weather forecast showed significant weakening of Tropical Storm Ernesto. More details will be posted here when available.

Makes sense, really. Since Ernesto has failed to strengthen significantly after ~12 hours ove rteh water, it's probably safe to assume he won't strengthen much in the next 4-8 hours before landfalling around Cape Sable. It probably won't be much of a threat by the time it gets up their way.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Not likely to strengthen much, very poor looking system.

[mettski]

still bang on the NHC track for me

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

[westmoon]

feederband,

Right now I give up I see 3 swrills..Don't know which one is the center....

Your not the only one, I gave up a while back. this is the storm with the ever changing center.

[stormtruth]

Messed-up Ern has a very funky tail. Any chance of him redeveloping to the sw?

[storms in NC]

I will wait till the 5PM update and go from there.

[LanceW]

Not likely to strengthen much, very poor looking system.

Just the kind I like. Probably get some rain and a little rain. Not much more. I still have to work.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Starting to turn N/NW looking at Key West Radar.

Have to respectfully disagree with you I am not even convinced NW. My opinion anyway

Look at Key West Radar..Center 24.0 80.3

[feederband]

I will wait till the 5PM update and go from there.

I said that yesterday...

[Solaris]

it's normal that there are dry intrusions between the outflow bands in such storms because of the aerial mass equation which has to take place in atmospheric systems

[CronkPSU]

from don sutherland on the TA board

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst



Joined: 15 Sep 2003
Location: New York
Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:12 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ernesto begins regaining strength…

With Ernesto moving across very warm waters (30°C-31°C), the tropical storm has begun to regain some of its strength. Both the latest reconnaissance data and satellite data suggest that Ernesto is now strengthening.

Reconnaissance Data:
14z: 1008 mb
16z: 1008 mb
18z: 1006 mb
19z: 1005 mb

Satellite Data:
12z: T-2.5 (35 knots)
18z: T-3.0 (45 knots)

In terms of its track, Ernesto has continued to track to the northwest—north-northwest in recent hours—and remains on course for a south Florida landfall late tonight or very early tomorrow morning.

Ernesto’s Trajectory:
6-Hours Ended:
8/28 11 pm: 290° (west-northwest)
8/29 2 am: 310° (northwest)
8/29 5 am: 307° (northwest)
8/29 8 am: 297° (west-northwest)
8/29 11 am: 321° (northwest)
8/29 2 pm: 344° (north-northwest)



http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 78#1446378

[deltadog03]

Starting to turn N/NW looking at Key West Radar.

Have to respectfully disagree with you I am not even convinced NW. My opinion anyway

Look at Key West Radar..Center 24.0 80.3

kdfm i agree its near those coords...

[CronkPSU]

looking just at this loop....definite wobble to the west...but the storm looks horrible on the eastern side on this radar loops

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... raprod=n0z

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yup, and it looks poor on Satellite and Radar.

[wxman57]

Right now I give up I see 3 swrills..Don't know which one is the center....

With such a weak TS and a poorly-defined center, don't focus on the center. Just step back and look at where the heavy rain is moving inland - that's where the weather is. There's not much at the center of Ernesto as there would be with a TS/H with a solid core.

[Zackiedawg]

Dvorak, visible, and IR satellite all look like it is self-destructing and losing much of its rain potential...good news possibly for South Florida that this might not be an Irene-type event?

It really looks less and less impactful every few minutes over the past 30-40 minutes.

[feederband]

Right now I give up I see 3 swrills..Don't know which one is the center....

With such a weak TS and a poorly-defined center, don't focus on the center. Just step back and look at where the heavy rain is moving inland - that's where the weather is. There's not much at the center of Ernesto as there would be with a TS/H with a solid core.

I understand that ...I'm just tring to get some hint of direction...