TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

[wxwonder12]

is the 11 advisory out yet??

[CronkPSU]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 29, 2006



...Ernesto lingering just off of Plantation Key...
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued
north of Bonita Beach on the Florida West Coast...and the tropical
storm watch from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida is also
discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Bonita Beach on the
Florida West Coast southward...around the Florida Peninsula...and
northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia...including all the Florida
Keys and Lake Okeechobee.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to
Cape Fear North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Andros Island...the
Berry Islands... the biminis and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 24.9 north...longitude 80.5 west or about 15
miles... 25 km...south-southwest of Key Largo Florida and about 65
miles...105 km...south-southwest of Miami Florida. This position is
just a few miles southeast of Islamorada.

Over the past several hours Ernesto has been moving toward the
north-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A turn to the north with an
increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours.
Ernesto is expected to reach the Florida Peninsula during the next
few hours. After landfall...the center of Ernesto should remain
over the Florida Peninsula for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected after the center of Ernesto moves
over the Florida Peninsula...and Ernesto could weaken to a tropical
depression Wednesday morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
mainly to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected in areas of onshore flow within the warning area.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over southern Florida and the
Florida Keys overnight.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible near the track of
Ernesto over south and central Florida through Wednesday...with
isolated amounts up to 10 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches...with isolated amounts of 4 inches are possible over
the Bahamas. Moisture will spread northward well in advance of
Ernesto through Georgia and the Carolinas on Wednesday. This could
bring 1 to 2 inches of rain as far north as Virginia...southern
Maryland...and southern Delaware by Thursday morning...with
isolated amounts up to 4 inches.
Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...24.9 N...80.5 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45
mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[CronkPSU]

[quote]At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 24.9 north...longitude 80.5 west or about 15
miles... 25 km...south-southwest of Key Largo Florida and about 65
miles...105 km...south-southwest of Miami Florida. This position is
just a few miles southeast of Islamorada. [\quote]

so i think the center we were looking at on the NHC radar was the actual center


now i know why every pro met says not to use the radar to track these things

[THead]

hmmm the center is on that one radar is in a totally different place than i was looking at on the NHC radar

It looks like the previous COC did do a west jog recently, then filled itself in, and then this one I mentioned above took over. Crazy storm. I like that sfwmd loop cause its a longer time period than most of the others i've been seeing.

[CronkPSU]

looks like a whole lot more dry air is entering the system over the penisula

[tgenius]

looks like a whole lot more dry air is entering the system over the penisula

I am not kidding, I had worse conditions last weekend in a rainstorm that came through kendall. I'm waiting for even rain right now which we have't had in quite some time. A total of .5 inches for the day, last week at work, 1 inch fell in 2 hr.

[CronkPSU]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 22

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 29, 2006



reconnaissance data show that Ernesto is holding steady with a
pressure of 1004 mb. Peak flight-level winds of 46 kt support
surface winds of 37 kt...so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.
Since the center will be over land shortly...there is virtually no
more chance for strengthening. Slow decay is then expected over
Florida...and how much strengthening occurs after Ernesto emerges
into the Atlantic depends on how much of a cyclone is left. Global
models suggest Ernesto may be getting some baroclinic support at
that time...and the GFDL still wants to make Ernesto a hurricane in
the Atlantic. Out of respect for this model...the official
intensity for a Carolina's landfall is only reduced slightly at
this time.
An Air Force fix and center dropsonde indicate Ernesto has not quite
made landfall. In fact...the center has moved little over the past
couple of hours...but the longer term motion is 330/8. Model
guidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours and the official
forecast is close to the previous advisory and model consensus. In
the latter part of the forecast period...some slowing of the
forward speed is expected as Ernesto or its extratropical remnant
encounters a blocking pattern near the northeastern United States.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 30/0300z 24.9n 80.5w 40 kt
12hr VT 30/1200z 26.6n 81.1w 35 kt...inland
24hr VT 31/0000z 28.6n 80.8w 35 kt...inland
36hr VT 31/1200z 31.2n 80.1w 45 kt
48hr VT 01/0000z 33.8n 79.2w 55 kt...inland
72hr VT 02/0000z 37.5n 78.0w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 03/0000z 40.0n 78.0w 25 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 04/0000z...dissipated

$$
forecaster Franklin

[craptacular]

The last three recon fixes have almost been on top of each other.

23:28 24'45"N 80'24"W
01:24 24'52"N 80'28"W
02:30 24'50"N 80'29"W

Between the 23:28 and 2:30 fixes (three hours), it's gone 7.5 miles NW, and the last one was south of the previous one.

[tallywx]

Maybe Ernie is finally learning that land IS NOT A GOOD THING FOR HIS HEALTH and is trying to stay off the Peninsula. Third time's the charm, right?

[LeeJet]

How the heck do tropical storm winds expand 105 miles from the center when nobody is getting them? Can somebody explain this enigma?

[tgenius]

I'm curious.. wasn't there a model that had Ernesto stalling over South FL for like 24 hr or something like that? 2mph is pretty close to that I would think.

[kevin]

They expand over water.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ernesto heard us calling him wimpy and didn't want to die a wimpy storm, so he's stalling.

[sponger]

I talked to the parents in Margate, one wind gust and very little rain. SFL has been through enough. A dud is welcome any time.

[Toadstool]

I talked to the parents in Margate, one wind gust and very little rain. SFL has been through enough. A dud is welcome any time.

I agree... after Wilma I took refuge in St. Augustine for a week until the power came back on to my apt in S.Fla... but with a storm going south to north, no way that would have worked this time. I'm glad it's a dud!

[Canelaw99]

How the heck do tropical storm winds expand 105 miles from the center when nobody is getting them? Can somebody explain this enigma?

I've been wondering this exact same thing....makes absolutely no sense to me at all, but then, what do I know?

It will be interesting to see if Ernie decides to just hang out off the coast or not. Doesn't seem like he's in a hurry to come onshore, that's for sure.

[gatorcane]

yep he has stalled for some odd reason.....

Must be enjoying the beautiful florida keys. I wish I were down there if he weren't there

[MBismyPlayground]

Anyone, what is baroclinic support ???

[CycloneCarl]

How the heck do tropical storm winds expand 105 miles from the center when nobody is getting them? Can somebody explain this enigma?

The centre of all tropical cyclones is calm or nearly so. Winds are due to the pressure gradient between the low in the centre and surrounding higher pressures. In a hurricane these usually concentrate in a ring or 'donut' around the centre. In weaker systems the low in the centre is not well defined and strongest winds are usually offset a considerable distance away in the direction of highest pressure.

[rainydaze]

The NHC discussion calls for possibly a slowing down of Ernie in "the latter part of the forecast"..when is exactly is that? When Erine is still over the peninsula of Florida or after he scoots off shore? Flooding could become an issue if it stalls over land.