TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

This thing is already as large as Wilma after it cleared Florida. The circulation takes up a 10 by 10 lat/lon box

It will get larger, very simple dynamics

This very well may be one of the larger TC's ever. Throw what you have seen out the window, this is likely to be one of the rare very large systems

[Bailey1777]

I'm excited about it. Even if this is a fish it could be historical and we were here to witness it not just hear about it after the fact.

[whereverwx]

You can really see the size of it on this map from Wunderground.

[storms in NC]

The NHC don't know where the center is? That is what I underdstanding. I could be wrong.

[Bgator]

They have a general idea, but siad that the model estimates are 90nm differential from each other...

[storms in NC]

That is a big different when it comes down to tracking. I just got off work just starting to read some now.

[deltadog03]

man this baby has slown WAAAY down hasn't it?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

As derek said it was 230 miles tropical storm winds as it moved off Florida. But once it was going extratropical it went to 430 miles tropical storm force. One of the largest tropical storm force. This got work to do before it gets this big. But maybe?
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

...WILMA WEAKENING AND STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST OR ABOUT
570 MILES... 920 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 440 MILES... 705 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA
SCOTIA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH...85 KM/HR. AN
TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTER OF WILMA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND WILMA WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 430 MILES...695 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH WILMA WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE U.S. EAST
COAST...HIGH SURF IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...38.5 N... 66.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Starburst]

According to the coordinates it has not moved at all in the past few hours.

2006090618 45 19.0 -51.4 Tropical Storm
2006090621 45 19.0 -51.4 Tropical Storm

[WxGuy1]

As derek said it was 230 miles tropical storm winds as it moved off Florida. But once it was going extratropical it went to 430 miles tropical storm force. One of the largest tropical storm force. This got work to do before it gets this big. But maybe?

Unfortunately, you cannot look at the "tropical storm force winds extend outward up to *** miles" and apply that as the mean radius in this case. That is the maximum distance from the center that TS-force winds can be expected, and does not imply any sort of symmetry. In Wilma's case, she was moving very rapidly (53mph per the advisory), which likely lead to an extremely asymmetric wind field. System-relative winds of 50mph would yield surface winds of over 100 mph to the right of the storm's path (and calm winds to the left of the storm's path). In that case, all TS-force winds may have been confined to the right semi-circle (relative to path), meaning that the "mean" radius of TS winds was 215mi (430mi / 2, in a very crude setting).

It's much better to look at the quadrants forecast (TS-force winds extending to ***mi in the NW quad, ***mi in the SW quad, etc). You can construct a basic "mean" radius by averaging these, which would be better when comparing the "area" experiencing TS-force or higher winds.

[Normandy]

The slow motion should factor into the chances of this recurving, so it needs to speed up.

Also, one interesting benchmark.

Florence is likely going to cross 55W under 20N. The NHC has Florence passing 60W near 23-24 N.

[bob rulz]

Let people exercise their fears please.. even if ya don't agree.

This is NOT the place to exercise those fears. This is a place to post responsible information concerning what is happening NOW and what can happen in the short-term. Not every single storm is a CAT 5 headed for the mainland no matter how much you wish it was.

Let me get something straight. Nobody forecasted a cat 5 on the east coast. Nobody wishes it to happen. Nobody said anything of the sort. People are asking legit questions here and are being ignored because others think it's just -removed-. This is supposed to be a place where people can ask questions and not get ripped apart. I myself am curious to know whether or not the size of a storm can influence how much it's affected by the trough.

[fci]

Let people exercise their fears please.. even if ya don't agree.

This is NOT the place to exercise those fears. This is a place to post responsible information concerning what is happening NOW and what can happen in the short-term. Not every single storm is a CAT 5 headed for the mainland no matter how much you wish it was.

Let me get something straight. Nobody forecasted a cat 5 on the east coast. Nobody wishes it to happen. Nobody said anything of the sort. People are asking legit questions here and are being ignored because others think it's just -removed-. This is supposed to be a place where people can ask questions and not get ripped apart. I myself am curious to know whether or not the size of a storm can influence how much it's affected by the trough.

Bob:
All you said is valid.
Since this may be a historically large storm, it is natural to ask what effect size has on a trough's influence.

There are people though whose posts can SEEM like they are -removed- a Cat 5 to come their way, or someone else's way.

As long as they do not APPEAR to be forecasting it, then one should take the comments as they wish and ignore them if they choose.

There is a real sensitivity that exists here for all of us who have been "stung" by storms and an instant anger builds up for those who seem to wishcast a storm to come their way. Most likely, they have never experienced a storm or are too young to know the hardship that can occur when you do get hit.

People do need to just take a deep breath and learn tolerance for those that seem uninformed to them. Just don't reply and get all heated. Ignore the posts that anger you. Believe me I am learning a lot of self-control!

[bob rulz]

Let people exercise their fears please.. even if ya don't agree.

This is NOT the place to exercise those fears. This is a place to post responsible information concerning what is happening NOW and what can happen in the short-term. Not every single storm is a CAT 5 headed for the mainland no matter how much you wish it was.

Let me get something straight. Nobody forecasted a cat 5 on the east coast. Nobody wishes it to happen. Nobody said anything of the sort. People are asking legit questions here and are being ignored because others think it's just -removed-. This is supposed to be a place where people can ask questions and not get ripped apart. I myself am curious to know whether or not the size of a storm can influence how much it's affected by the trough.

Bob:
All you said is valid.
Since this may be a historically large storm, it is natural to ask what effect size has on a trough's influence.

There are people though whose posts can SEEM like they are -removed- a Cat 5 to come their way, or someone else's way.

As long as they do not APPEAR to be forecasting it, then one should take the comments as they wish and ignore them if they choose.

There is a real sensitivity that exists here for all of us who have been "stung" by storms and an instant anger builds up for those who seem to wishcast a storm to come their way. Most likely, they have never experienced a storm or are too young to know the hardship that can occur when you do get hit.

People do need to just take a deep breath and learn tolerance for those that seem uninformed to them. Just don't reply and get all heated. Ignore the posts that anger you. Believe me I am learning a lot of self-control!

I have learned a lot of self-control recently from frequenting Internet forums so often, but there's some things I just have to comment on. While it does get tiring seeing the same old doomcasting predictions on here, it also gets tiring seeing people bash down the excited people and the newbies and misinterpreting what they say. It doesn't create a very helpful environment for the new people around here, nor does it create very good impressions among some of us who have been around for a bit (like me). It's a double-edged sword. Legit questions are involved and sometimes struck down because they appear to be -removed- (when oftentimes they're clearly not). There's too much -removed-, but there's also too many misunderstandings involving perceived -removed-.

[emeraldislencguy]

sometimes people are treated so rude on here- in a lot of cases people are just trying to learn more about hurricanes and the movement of hurricanes--we alll need to treat others as we wish to be treated.

[Hurricaneman]

sometimes people are treated so rude on here- in a lot of cases people are just trying to learn more about hurricanes and the movement of hurricanes--we alll need to treat others as we wish to be treated.

one word that needs to be used, RESPECT

on topic, If it stays slow, could it possibly become a fish or will it miss the trough

[gatorcane]

The slow motion should factor into the chances of this recurving, so it needs to speed up.

Also, one interesting benchmark.

Florence is likely going to cross 55W under 20N. The NHC has Florence passing 60W near 23-24 N.

better speed up Florence or you'll miss your ride!!!

[Normandy]

Florence is so disorganized....
I think I spot the center, but its so far south and west of the NHC forecast points that its questionable that it is the real center.

[gatorcane]

looks like we have the battle of the blobs going on again tonight. Looks to me a center is trying to form well west of the NHC forecast points in the smaller blob....

[Normandy]

[img]http://images6.theimagehosting.com/untitled%20(2).b76.jpg[/img]

That is where I see a center, but if that is the real center than you can throw that NHC track out the window...

Mets any thoughts?