TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[storms in NC]

Keep waiting to hear OH NO..... shes not turning north, missed the ridge....... only reason cause how MESSED UP this season has been and the unbelieveable things storms have been doing...

The models have been really good with this storm. I knew it would turn but the more west it went I was thinking more to the left it would go but it didn't. It pulled to the north more now. So I wish that it would not go over Bermuda. The west side of the storm would be better for them.

[JonathanBelles]

will the new storm surge thing at the NHC work in bermuda?

[Rainband]

From what I hear, Bremuda is very prepared for Storms. The building codes are really strict.

[CrazyC83]

This reminds me of a past storm that went through tough times...Hurricane Irene last year...

[CrazyC83]

It's fully banded now...just waiting for the real eye to open up...

[Trugunzn]

Is the center the warm cloud tops in the center of the storm right here:



If it is then it is way south of the NHC track, I think it relocated its center furthur south



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

[Hyperstorm]

Latest IR images possibly indicate that the center is located to the SW of the advisory position. Will need more images to verify that. If it is, it's likely a 60 mph tropical storm right now.

Convection continues to blow...

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

This reminds me of a past storm that went through tough times...Hurricane Irene last year...

Irene struggled to maintain convection for half of her lifetime before strengthening. Florence is a healthy, huge tropical storm that's still getting organized. The ones that bide their time at a steady intensity for a few days before the heat engine switches on are the ones that I worry about. I'm looking forward to tracking Florence. She's going to look amazing on sattelite.

[wxman57]

Is the center the warm cloud tops in the center of the storm right here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

If it is then it is way south of the NHC track, I think it relocated its center furthur south

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

No, the center is not in the middle of that convection. It's up around 24N, closer to the top of the bright red area. That's not an eye in the middle of the red area.

[Rainband]

No, the center is not in the middle of that convection. It's up around 24N, closer to the top of the bright red area. That's not an eye in the middle of the red area.

Thanks. The voice of reason. Music to my ears

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I wouldn't rule out a new center forming somewhere else in that mess; tends to happen with weak (wind speed wise) shallow systems.

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't rule out a new center forming somewhere else in that mess; tends to happen with weak (wind speed wise) shallow systems.

That's what I see happening. Same happened with Ernesto before the NC landfall.

[Trugunzn]

So when does the NW turn happen? Still looks wnw and still below 25N

[Hyperstorm]

It's really anyone's guess where the center of this storm is located. That's why you see different T-Numbers from the satellite agencies.

Having said that, just looked at the recent visible loop and the advisory position looks about right as I don't see any south to north movement on that side. Anyway, it seems like there is still no well-defined tight core. There might even still be a couple of vortices around the circulation. Visible imagery still doesn't reveal a classic circulation.

Air Force Recon will be the witness...

[Trugunzn]

Looking at some images of Flo' it looks like the center did form furthur sw. Need couple more hours before certain

[Brent]

So when does the NW turn happen? Still looks wnw and still below 25N

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

You can see it's gradually already starting, will really be noticeable tomorrow and especially Sunday.

[hiflyer]

From what I hear, Bremuda is very prepared for Storms. The building codes are really strict.

You are quite correct...I have been on the island frequently and especially the older construction is quite solid. Roofs are very strong and are used to trap water for drinking by funneling down into tanks. However...there are areas that are more susceptible to water damage such as the causeway to the airport and the airport terminal itself...both heavily damaged during the last storm but since repaired....on the NE end of the island by St. George. Remember that this is the top of an old volcano now surrounded by coral reefs on every side but the south....which do a great job blocking swells.

Having said that I find it quite different than the US...with the first high winds now possibly being 36 hrs outs I see no call in the local press for tourists to leave the island...nothing about hotels shutting down.

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[Trugunzn]

Anybody think Recon will find hurricane winds tonight?

[Evil Jeremy]

a reformation to the osuth can change alot of things!

[Zardoz]

The center looks fairly defined in this loop:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Does it look to you like Flo has heaved to and pretty much stopped at the moment?