Does anyone have any idea why Helene's convection remains heaviest on the NW quadrant?
My guess would be that the east side is sheared by dry SAL air and the west is impacting moist tropical air ahead of it with higher SST's.
Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2
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SouthFloridawx
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Brent
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WeatherTracker wrote:Scorpion wrote:T# supports Cat 4, yet the NHC still says its a Cat 2.
They need to send a recon in there! We cant keep guessing the intensity....
They went in there and didn't find anything to support a Cat 3 or 4. Those satellite estimates are always too high.
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#neversummer
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WeatherTracker
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marcane_1973
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If Helene hits Bermuda at the intensity forecast that the NHC is predicting it will have peaked before landfall there and probably will not be much stronger than Florence which would be nothing for them as well. 
There will be a massive amount of shear and some dry air around this storm at that time so she will be steadily toast.
There will be a massive amount of shear and some dry air around this storm at that time so she will be steadily toast.
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WeatherTracker wrote:it looks as if the new gfs run will curve helene east of bermuda
Nope, blocked by strong high pressure to the north aka the UKMET.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138s.gif
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WeatherTracker
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_162l.gif
GFS at 162 Hours
GFS at 162 Hours
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senorpepr
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Scorpion wrote:T# supports Cat 4, yet the NHC still says its a Cat 2.
No... that statistical over-estimating computer supports category four. That computer is as off as greatone's forecasts.
NHC, SAB, TAFB, and AFWA all support category two. I think I would trust the judgement of dozens of meteorologists over a computer that is known to be wrong.
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WeatherTracker
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GFS at 216 hours....Well away from the east coast but very close to bermuda.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_216l.gif
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craptacular
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WeatherTracker wrote:CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.0mb/115.0kt
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt3.html
The intensity values have really been moving this afternoon / evening:
2006SEP17 191500 5.7 956.2/ +1.0 /107.2 5.7 5.7 6.1 6.4
2006SEP17 194500 5.8 953.8/ +1.0 /109.8 5.8 5.8 6.2 6.4
2006SEP17 201500 5.9 951.4/ +1.0 /112.4 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.4
2006SEP17 204500 6.0 949.0/ +1.0 /115.0 5.9 6.0 6.3 6.3
2006SEP17 211500 6.0 949.0/ +1.0 /115.0 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.8
2006SEP17 214500 6.1 946.3/ +0.9 /117.4 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2
2006SEP17 221500 6.1 946.3/ +0.9 /117.4 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.0
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Scorpion
marcane_1973 wrote:If Helene hits Bermuda at the intensity forecast that the NHC is predicting it will have peaked before landfall there and probably will not be much stronger than Florence which would be nothing for them as well.
All your posts have the same tune. It's getting pretty old.
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Evil Jeremy wrote::eek:
Can you explain what this post is supposed to present?
I am confused.
I read your forecasts, which are well written and I wonder how much you know about the Tropics and whether you actually write the forecasts.
And you get accolades from some of the people who read your forecasts.
Then I see a post like this with an "eek" emoticon and am completely confused.
Last edited by fci on Sun Sep 17, 2006 6:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Evil Jeremy
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fci wrote:Evil Jeremy wrote::eek:
Can you explain what this post is supposed to present?
I am confused.
I read your forecats, which are well written and I wonder how much you know about the Tropics and whether you actually write the forecasts.
And you get accolades from some of the people who read your forecasts.
Then I see a post like this with an "eek" emoticon and am completely confused.
thank you for complementing my forecasts. i made that symbol when i was the 6.0 estimate.
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storms in NC
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caneman
Oh my 18z GFSat 65 W with an apparant WNW motion at end run.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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WeatherTracker
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caneman wrote:Oh my 18z GFSat 65 W with an apparant WNW motion at end run.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
them it turns helene to the N way off the east coast....
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Evil Jeremy
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caneman wrote:Oh my 18z GFSat 65 W with an apparant WNW motion at end run.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
how many hours away is that?
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Evil Jeremy wrote:fci wrote:Evil Jeremy wrote::eek:
Can you explain what this post is supposed to present?
I am confused.
I read your forecats, which are well written and I wonder how much you know about the Tropics and whether you actually write the forecasts.
And you get accolades from some of the people who read your forecasts.
Then I see a post like this with an "eek" emoticon and am completely confused.
thank you for complementing my forecasts. i made that symbol when i was the 6.0 estimate.
Well, actually I referred to "some" not necessarily myself.
But, I don't have the guts, nor knowledge; to put one out myself so THAT I respect.
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caneman
WeatherTracker wrote:caneman wrote:Oh my 18z GFSat 65 W with an apparant WNW motion at end run.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
them it turns helene to the N way off the east coast....
Wasn't sure what you meant at first but I see your basing it off a 216 hour run. Not a good idea! This is based on a 144 hour run which I barely trust. Point being-we now have UKMET and GFS with the Westard motion. I'm looking for trend rather than an exact end point. Especially 216 hours out.
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