Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

[JonathanBelles]

I, Fact789, hereby invite Tropical Storm Barry to the annual Hurricane Season Party Opener as the Guest of Honor. I would also like to invite Tropical Storm Barry to the dessicating State of Florida and also to the smokey State of Georgia.

Fact789
Member of Storm2K

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I, Fact789, hereby invite Tropical Storm Barry to the annual Hurricane Season Party Opener as the Guest of Honor. I would also like to invite Tropical Storm Barry to the dessicating State of Florida and also to the smokey State of Georgia.

Fact789
Member of Storm2K

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Fact789 I agree with you and also invite some much needed rain.
I expect a depression by monday as moisture increases
and as shear decreases. Sea surface temperatures are very warm.

[Noah]

Rain????????

[Hurricaneman]

looks like there is a refiring of the convection near the center

[Swimdude]

This thing sure is trying hard to get started. Even with all of the convection earlier, it was difficult to find the rotation, but with the convection refiring this evening (well, morning), I can spot the rotation. This will be interesting to watch.

[Meso]

I know models are a long shot.But just for interest' sake;here are the new model runs picking up on this system.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

CMC 144 Hours : LINK
108 Hours : LINK
Loop : LINK

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOGAPS 144 Hours : LINK
48 Hours : LINK
Loop : LINK

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The CMC does mighty things with it,but obviously it's likely wrong.Gfs doesn't do anything really.NOGAPS develops it slightly,and then moves it over to the EPac

[punkyg]

anything new with our carribean friend?

[windstorm99]

Not much going on down there this morning as everything remains rather disorganized.Development if any should be rather slow.

[windstorm99]

06Z NAM brings this area in a NW fashion towards the NW caribbean as a 1008mb low pressure area.

[WeatherWiseGuy]

After looking at the models it's obviously too early to tell. At this point, however, I'll watch anything that might bring us some precip.

[flwxwatcher]

I know models are a long shot.But just for interest' sake;here are the new model runs picking up on this system.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

CMC 144 Hours : LINK
108 Hours : LINK
Loop : LINK

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOGAPS 144 Hours : LINK
48 Hours : LINK
Loop : LINK

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The CMC does mighty things with it,but obviously it's likely wrong.Gfs doesn't do anything really.NOGAPS develops it slightly,and then moves it over to the EPac

The EURO and UKMET are developing this system as well

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_ame ... 9panel.gif

[x-y-no]

This morning's preliminary discussion at HPC is not bullish on this doing anything:

MEANWHILE CONFIDENCE CONTS TO BE LOW WITH HANDLING OF ENERGY FCST
TO STREAM NWD/NEWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO/CARIBBEAN... BASED ON
RATHER DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
DEPENDENCE UPON EXACT AMPLITUDE/SHRTWV DETAILS OF THE TROF
CROSSING THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY TROF IN THE SHORT RANGE AND
LARGER SCALE TROF TO ITS NW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY RECOMMENDS
DEFINETLY LEANING AWAY FROM THE MORE ENTHUSIASTIC CANADIAN
SOLUTION AND EVEN THE ECMWF/UKMET SYSTEMS...IN FAVOR OF ONLY A
WEAK WAVE WHILE WAITING FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS TO EMERGE.

[drezee]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

[Opal storm]

Looks pretty dead this AM. Lets see if convection re-fires this afternoon.

[Patrick99]

I, Fact789, hereby invite Tropical Storm Barry to the annual Hurricane Season Party Opener as the Guest of Honor. I would also like to invite Tropical Storm Barry to the dessicating State of Florida and also to the smokey State of Georgia.

I wish. The moisture closest to Florida just keeps getting further away, and would-be Barry isn't looking like much.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html

The third floater is now called "Invest" and it's positioned on the South Caribbean.

[Opal storm]

I think there just might be too much shear around it for anything to get going, I give it a 5% chance of becoming a depression.

[Aric Dunn]

I think there just might be too much shear around it for anything to get going, I give it a 5% chance of becoming a depression.

where the system is at there is 0 to 10 kt shear.. shear is not the problem until its get in the NW carrib... look at the water vapor .. there is a lot of dry air making its way south ... the question is? is that enough to keep the rain away from the SE ( i hope not ) as for development yesterday i may leaned more toward a "maybe" given that there at least was some deep convection around where there could have been a center!! but as of this morning that convection is gone and dry air has moved in!! the only thing that tells me that there is still a LLC .. well you can see a very weak center, at least what appears to be a center... and some very weak turning. and some recent observations from a couple ships and a bouy there still does appear to be a WEAK closed wind field, and given the fact that most of carrib is about 1009 to 1010 mb i imagine that there will not be much in the way wind given that the pressure field is so flat!! with all that said the only way this thing could possibly develop is if the ULL near the Bahamas lifts out and takes the dry with ! and we see a return of convection because without it there can be no significant pressure falls and without that .. that little circulation is doomed here very soon .. there may still be some broad turning left over if we dont get convection but it wont matter. besides this time a year there are often small circulations just of the coast of Colombia.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[windstorm99]

Very slim chances for development as an ULL is createing 30-40kt windshear over the area.

[HarlequinBoy]

Very slim chances for development as an ULL is createing 30-40kt windshear over the area.

I thought there was very little shear?