Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[dwg71]

When is recon?

Tomorrow at 2pm EDT.

4. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 02/1730Z
D. 29.0N 88.0W
E. 02/1745Z TO 02/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

At least thats' the plan now. we will see tomorrow morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

why is it that they are not mentioning recon in the TWO?

[hiflyer]

Whatever is going on the Orlando area has quite a few meandering storms dumping good amounts of liquid in the watershed north of Lake O...which is up to 9.2 feet....we just had one wave off this whole thing thru sofla about 330pm and now bugging Freeport and looks like another pulse is forming w of sofla to come thru around sunset. lot of energy and moisture.

[jasons2k]

why is it that they are not mentioning recon in the TWO?

I asked the same thing this morning and never got a reply.

[cheezyWXguy]

why is it that they are not mentioning recon in the TWO?

I asked the same thing this morning and never got a reply.

I think its because its still not officially an invest and once it is, (since it probably will) they will mention it in the TWO

[killah]

It looks like it might be getting some shear in the upper levels. One thing is for certain even if this doesn't become a tropical system it will bring rain to much of the Gulf Coast.

[Meso]

Speaking of shear here's the sheap map :


And shear tendency

[jasons2k]

I haven't seen much change/improvement with this system all day.

However, I think chances for development look to be a bit further south (26-27N) which is not good news for the Gulf Coast.

[Aquawind]

Convection over the GOM is weakening and decreasing in coverage rapidly on the TBW radar.

[jaxfladude]

Convection over the GOM is weakening and decreasing in coverage rapidly on the TBW radar.

I hope that tread goes on and nothing becomes of it.....a windy rainmaker at most

[vbhoutex]

Looks to me like whatever was there got blown apart this afternoon. Mind you this is just a cursory look at a close in sat loop. But I don't see any organized convection or turning at any level in the area considered suspect earlier today.

[wxman57]

This area in the Gulf looks more impressive to me than 99L. I can definitely see a broad low center on buoy/ship obs around 27N/85W. Shear is a tad high but dropping. I agree with most model guidance that it would track NW-NNW possibly toward the MS/AL coast and be inland in 48 hours, so not much time to develop. Could get a weak TS out of it, though (as long as it's inland in 48 hrs).

[Steve]

Yeah, I figured that anything that formed wasn't going to come out of the mass from today. Should we get feedback, it would likely be after the next blowup IMHO. Tomorrow at this time we'll probably have a general idea (assuming weak development) what we'll be dealing with - if anything - come Friday.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

The same thing happened yesterday. Nothing is forming here ATM.

[HURAKAN]

By the way, isn't time already to change the heading of the thread to something like "Gulf Disturbance - Recon Set" or something like it?

[Steve]

>>The same thing happened yesterday. Nothing is forming here ATM.

Yesterday didn't produce nearly the amount of convection though. It looked for a little while today that things were popping both west of Tampa and off of Boothville. But nothing has come of it yet. Maybe tomorrow, maybe not.

[ronjon]

Interesting 18Z GFS run - it develops a weak low that heads north through coastal MS into central MS then turns east though central AL and then southward back into the NE GOM, intensifies into tropical storm and heads toward western LA. Entertaining to say the least!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

[ronjon]

If any development is to occur, I'd look near the mouth of the Miss R tomorrow - this is where the models are focused and a big batch of convection is rolling southward from Miss/LA tonight. There is already a 1010 mb low positioned near there.

[DrewFL]

The GFS is pretty busy there ronjon. Thanks for pointing that out.

[Opal storm]

Lots of convection but I don't see any organization. IMO just some squally weather and rough surf for the GC.

We've been getting about an inch of rain in the area everyday, this is really helping repair our soil from the drought we had back in May/June.