GFS continues to develop African wave

[ekal]

Sorry if it seemed I was directing all of that at you, x-y-no. I know you are aware of all that; I was really only addressing your post with the first sentence.

Thank you for the welcome.

[Scorpion]

A better view...

[N2FSU]

I'll be concerned when a named storm is in the Gulf and I'm smack dab in the 72 hour cone. Of course the season is about to ramp up, but why get hyped about model runs on something that hasn't even come off of Africa yet? I want something to track just as much as anyone else, but how many times does a great looking wave over Africa hit the water only to go poof?

[El Nino]

A better view...

A white zone is good for hurricane force winds, right ?

[stormchazer]

I'll be concerned when a named storm is in the Gulf and I'm smack dab in the 72 hour cone. Of course the season is about to ramp up, but why get hyped about model runs on something that hasn't even come off of Africa yet? I want something to track just as much as anyone else, but how many times does a great looking wave over Africa hit the water only to go poof?

I agree, but when you have all the models supporting some type of development, you have to at least take notice.

Besides, following the European output means a storm at the doorstep on the first week of school for Florida. My kids would love an extra day or two off.

[N2FSU]

I hear ya stormchazer! My 10 yr old wouldn't mind it a bit!

[sevenleft]

I'll be concerned when a named storm is in the Gulf and I'm smack dab in the 72 hour cone. Of course the season is about to ramp up, but why get hyped about model runs on something that hasn't even come off of Africa yet? I want something to track just as much as anyone else, but how many times does a great looking wave over Africa hit the water only to go poof?

Well, the real point of the "excitement" is the consensus, the consistency, and the upper level depiction.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Take a deep breath everyone.

BTW I think Cyclone Eye is right; this place will go nuts if anything really does pop!

[cheezyWXguy]

I'll be concerned when a named storm is in the Gulf and I'm smack dab in the 72 hour cone. Of course the season is about to ramp up, but why get hyped about model runs on something that hasn't even come off of Africa yet? I want something to track just as much as anyone else, but how many times does a great looking wave over Africa hit the water only to go poof?

Well, this is a poor looking wave with little convection, but a strong low. The convection will likely die today, but come back tomorrow...however, a low takes much longer to kill, and usually isnt killed because it moves over water. This thing has something that most other african waves havent had this year, and thats a well defined low, despite the lack of organized convection. And as time goes on, the convection will come back

[El Nino]

Take a deep breath everyone.

BTW I think Cycloneye is right; this place will go nuts if anything really does pop!

Can we imagine that nothing pops ? That all models would be wrong ?

[Weatherfreak000]

I think most people are forgetting at this point in time the wave has a higher chance of dieing off then actually developing, of course making the model runs useless.

Everyone always claims they know this but everyone still freaks out when they see these models...

[southerngale]

Interesting GFS runs, but 300 hours away... Britney could have another baby by then.

[Steve]

>>I'll be concerned when a named storm is in the Gulf and I'm smack dab in the 72 hour cone. Of course the season is about to ramp up, but why get hyped about model runs on something that hasn't even come off of Africa yet?

You don't always have 72 hours as per 8/26/2005:



Steve

[chadtm80]

Interesting GFS runs, but 300 hours away... Britney could have another baby by then.

ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Brent]

Interesting GFS runs, but 300 hours away... Britney could have another baby by then.

ROFL!

[Opal storm]

Interesting GFS runs, but 300 hours away... Britney could have another baby by then.

ROFL!

Is that her baby?

[El Nino]

Who knows ... I don't think she's a human anymore ...

[ekal]

"The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products."

Mid-level dry air is probably the biggest obstacle to development of this wave before it reaches the Central Atlantic.

This is a moving cross-section of the upper-air environment, taken over the previous seven days from Dakar, Senegal:



Now from the Cape Verdes:



Both soundings look okay, until you get above about 900 mb. Thereafter, there are some very dry pockets of air (RH less than 30 percent) between 850 mb and 500 mb on both soundings, particularly out ahead of the wave near the Cape Verde Islands.

Mid-level water vapor imagery confirms what the soundings show:



That is a very dry tongue of air near the CV Islands that could become entrained into the circulation of this system, once it begins to develop. I don't think it means that it absolutely won't be anything more than a wave, but I do think it will take a considerably longer period of time than the GFS is indicating (at least three to four days before classification). As always, a wait and see game.

Evan

[hawkeh]

Looks like this could be our first big storm. Time to get the surf board ready, I Just hope it recurves if it does develop...

[El Nino]

About dry air and its influence, that's exactly what the models are showing I think. This storm will have to wait to approach the Lesser Islands to become a hurricane or something like that.