Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[Chacor]

TAFB went with an estimated position of 12.3 N, 26.6 W and a 1.5/1.5 classification.

Where do you get the TAFB T-numbers I know where to get ssd but were do you get the rest.

TAFB T-numbers are available from the f-decks on TPC's anonymous FTP server.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/fix/

[canegrl04]

Hope the Islands can be spared the brunt of this system. I know its a ways before any talk about the US being affected,but it looks as tho the potential for a major cane to strike in the GOM,or over Florida seems very likely

[Derek Ortt]

a 1.0/1.5 indicates weakening, but the CI could not be lowered due to Dvorak constraints. With the center as exposed as it is, even a 1.0/1.5 is generous

[Normandy]

How can anyone really say for certain the center is exposed? If it WAS totally exposed you would be able to it on IR....Naked circulations are identifiable on IR at night.

It also ISNT directly under the deep convection, but to say its totally exposed is incorrect imo.

[chadtm80]

a 1.0/1.5 indicates weakening, but the CI could not be lowered due to Dvorak constraints. With the center as exposed as it is, even a 1.0/1.5 is generous

Could you show us where that is documented? I just always thought it was the opposite.. Thanks!

[HarlequinBoy]

Since there is a decent chance this invest will move into the Caribbean, what are conditions there like? Are they conducive for development, or hostile? Just a question...


And yes, I'm aware that it isn't for certain this will enter the Caribbean.

[Chacor]

a 1.0/1.5 indicates weakening, but the CI could not be lowered due to Dvorak constraints. With the center as exposed as it is, even a 1.0/1.5 is generous

Could you show us where that is documented? I just always thought it was the opposite.. Thanks!

Chad, which part of that do you need, the 1.0/1.5 showing weakening, the CI could not be lowered or 1.0/1.5 is generous? lol

[NONAME]

TAFB went with an estimated position of 12.3 N, 26.6 W and a 1.5/1.5 classification.

Where do you get the TAFB T-numbers and are there other agencies that give out T-numbers.

[Hyperstorm]

a 1.0/1.5 indicates weakening, but the CI could not be lowered due to Dvorak constraints. With the center as exposed as it is, even a 1.0/1.5 is generous

Could you show us where that is documented? I just always thought it was the opposite.. Thanks!

Here you go:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html

[Derek Ortt]

The data T number is the first one, while the CI is the second.

I'd refer you to Dvorak (1984) for the full technique

[Chacor]

TAFB went with an estimated position of 12.3 N, 26.6 W and a 1.5/1.5 classification.

Where do you get the TAFB T-numbers and are there other agencies that give out T-numbers.

TAFB went with an estimated position of 12.3 N, 26.6 W and a 1.5/1.5 classification.

Where do you get the TAFB T-numbers I know where to get ssd but were do you get the rest.

TAFB T-numbers are available from the f-decks on TPC's anonymous FTP server.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/fix/

Also, see viewtopic.php?f=42&t=96747&p=1584425#p1584425

[fci]

a 1.0/1.5 indicates weakening, but the CI could not be lowered due to Dvorak constraints. With the center as exposed as it is, even a 1.0/1.5 is generous

Could you show us where that is documented? I just always thought it was the opposite.. Thanks!

From the explanation page of NOAA on Dvorak Technique:

EXAMPLE: T4.5/5.5/W1.0/24hrs
Translation: The system appears on satellite imagery to be T-Number 4.5 storm. The Current intensity is still 5.5 and the system is still generating sustained winds of about 100 knots. As a forecast tool, the Dvorak technique is showing a weakening trend and the likelihood of a lowering CI within the next 24hours.

If I am reading the explanation correctly; the first number is what it appears to be and the second number is what they thought the intensity was.

The "T" number for 90L is 1.0/1.5 so I presume that it means they report it as a 1.5 but on satellite imagery it appears to only be a 1.0. Perhaps the second number is from the previous fix.

Can a Pro Met help clarify this?

[Blown Away]

Looks pretty good for an invest. Most of the convection on the W side of LLC.

[chadtm80]

thanks fci!! Thats exactly what I was looking for!

[marcane_1973]

Been gone today. Sup with 90L??? Is it moving too fast or something???

[hurricanefloyd5]

I dont know about ya'll but from want I can see myself im sure the center is under the convestion!!!!

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

[Cyclone1]

Been gone today. Sup with 90L??? Is it moving too fast or something???

NHC says this could become a depression with the slightest bit of further organization. As of 5:30pm.

[Scorpion]

While this is still disorganized, I have seen tropical storms that have looked worse than this and had completely exposed LLC's

[hurricanefloyd5]

And it has done that already!!!!

[chadtm80]

I dont know about ya'll but from want I can see myself im sure the center is under the convestion!!!!

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

Well since you are so sure, perhaps you would like to share with us exactly how your SURE.. Edumacate us if you will We are all eager for you to learn us