New storm on the horizon??

[jlauderdal]

All right folks lets wake up. NHC says slow development possible. CMC sniffed this one out. CMC bashers lets give some credit. Title of this thread should be changed to Slow development possilbe of SW Atlantic system?

Ok im awake now, happy, lol. Listen, The canadain might not be the best or whatever but really what is, sometimes a model is good and sometimes it isn't, when the globals latch on to something run after run you have to pay attention and this nonsense about discounting a certain model just because of some past performance is ridiculous.

The fact is there is actually convection out there and its heading towards florida in whatever form which remains to be seen. We can use some rain on the east coast, its been rather dry the last week or so underneath the ridge that drove Dean west west southwest west, etc.

[ronjon]

I see some weak development of this feature from Euro and NOGAPs with a closed low off the west coast of FL. Both GFS and the UKMET leave it an open wave. The over eager NAM develops into a strong low in 84 hrs. And of course the CMC creates a strong tropical cyclone. So there is some consensus on al least an open wave if not outright cyclone development. That nearby ULL is going to create rather hostile upper level conditions for a while so I anticipate slow development until it moves away or diminishes. What ever forms, will be pushed west across FL into the GOM due to strong ridging north of it. I will also add that this region was the source area for Katrina and Rita so I'll leave it at that.

[Robjohn53]

This thing is really getting intresting now. I see the local news is hyping it already in Orlando. Don't need a hurricane here but really could use the rain here. have not seen much at all for a month or so. Days a just to hot also.


Robjohn53

[jhamps10]

I've seen a lot of different posts on other forums of how eeerely simular this looks to A very major storm a few years ago...........


Guesses anyone. Katrina in the pre-td 12 post td 10 stage.

[KatDaddy]

It looks a little better organized than yesterday. With Dean headed W/WNW across the BOC, the GOM still has untapped energy. This potential system could make it across FLA into the GOM by weeks end.

I think this will be an invest soon.

[HURAKAN]

Latest!

[jhamps10]

It looks a little better organized than yesterday. With Dean headed W/WNW across the BOC, the GOM still has untapped energy. This potential system could make it across FLA into the GOM by weeks end.

I think this will be an invest soon.

yeah and with temps of 89-91 it could blow up like Rita, Katrina, etc....

I'm thinking we will have it as an invest today, espically if the convection gets a wee bit better organized. SFL could have a busy week of prep, and then well the real bad news bout this, is that chances are that it WON'T go south of the border...


OH yeah, a lot more organized looking at that vis shot.

[HURAKAN]

A tropical wave that can give generate two tropical cyclones. Lets not forget about the southern portion.

[gtsmith]

yeah that southern portion looks much healthier than it did last night. and I dont like the way the CMC has this stormed not slowed down but actually stalled off the east coast of FL...and then having it strengthen over the everglades...weird wacky stuff

[jhamps10]

A tropical wave that can give generate two tropical cyclones. Lets not forget about the southern portion.

indeed, although the southern part would most likely take a dean track should it develop

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That northern one looks to be getting better organized over the last 6 hours. Need to watch for LLC devleopment.

[Emmett_Brown]

Starting to look circular...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

[KatDaddy]

Another busy week ahead for all of us.

[jhamps10]

Another busy week ahead for all of us.

indeed, and not just with back to school. When we thought we'd get a break that gets snubbed Quickly.

if we get a LLC, we could get a TD very fast.

[alan1961]

This thing is really getting intresting now. I see the local news is hyping it already in Orlando. Don't need a hurricane here but really could use the rain here. have not seen much at all for a month or so. Days a just to hot also.


Robjohn53

you got a web address for that local station in Orlando Robjohn?

[Robjohn53]

This thing is really getting intresting now. I see the local news is hyping it already in Orlando. Don't need a hurricane here but really could use the rain here. have not seen much at all for a month or so. Days a just to hot also.


Robjohn53

you got a web address for that local station in Orlando Robjohn?

I saw this on TV, WFTV channal 9 News and channel 2 news as well here's the website for channel 9 tho i have not look at the web site. http://www.wftv.com/weather/index.html

[vaffie]

A lot of surface winds associated with it--some 30+ knot winds at about 55W, 22N according to the latest Quikscat.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/oce ... atl_10.png

Vorticity increasing since last night.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

Much increased lower level convergence, upper level divergence, decreased shear this morning compared to last night. Looks promising.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

ULL at 20 north/58 west. Which is helping to form the convection on the southern Part. I would watch the northern part as it moves westward.

[Frank2]

The GFS shows little or nothing as far as that disturbance is concerned:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[Thunder44]

A lot of surface winds associated with it--some 30+ knot winds at about 55W, 22N according to the latest Quikscat.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/oce ... atl_10.png

Vorticity increasing since last night.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

Much increased lower level convergence, upper level divergence, decreased shear this morning compared to last night. Looks promising.

The QS doesn't show a surface circulation and there no signs of one on visible imagery either.