Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

Interresting discussion it has a low right now and not father high in latitude..., it is something to watch in the next couple of days as there's some potential...so conditions remains quite good for the future Hope it will turn quickly as a fish crossing higher than 14N lool but time will tell!

[cycloneye]

[canegrl04]

This should be an invest 90L shortly

[KWT]

This one is looking good to develop, not a rapid development mind you as the atmopshere sn't quite good enough for this sort of longtitude but slow and steady development is possible, and that far east itsd going to have at least 7-10 days to develop into a noteable system and at this time of year any tropical system that can keep away from any upper features should be okay.

I'm not all that sure about the long term trac, the weakness will send it NW between 72-120hrs but after that the ridge will probably build back which I assume will shift the system back to a WNW/W type track. I won't rule out a landfalling threat just yet, if it does miss the first weakness then I'd think there is a reasonable chance of at least a Bermuda threat and maybe evn further west, who knows!

As long as it stays away from the diving upper trough around 144hrs then it shouldn't be sheared at all badly, should be far enough west to iss that feature but it may lift the ssytem a little more to the NW again about 168hrs.

[Sanibel]

Slow developer like Felix at best. Atlantic got it. Wait.

[KWT]

It did spit out a pretty decent outflow boundary on the northern convection over the last few hours so i can't see it devloping that quickly either, in terms of Felix do you mean in the way that once it first developed decent convection it took a while?

Possibly a tropical depression in 48-72hrs IF it can keep up the convection, thats a big if.
I wonder f the longer it takes to develop the less chance the powerful upper low has off totally re-curving the system beyond the point of return?

[Derek Ortt]

ion this case, weaker means more west as the deep flow favors a northerly track

[KWT]

So I'm guessing if it stays weak then its going to miss the large upper weakness,or at least not be effected by it as mch as if it was stronger. Obviously if thats the case then its going to be a greater threat down the road though further north then Dean and Felix given there are more weakness in the subtropical high pressure belt then there was a few weeks ago.

[Gustywind]

yeah good analysis KWT we keep an eye on this for the future !

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GABRIELLE LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT
15 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CUBA AND
ADJACENT WATERS WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Blown Away]

That is one big friggen wave!

[canegrl04]

So I'm guessing if it stays weak then its going to miss the large upper weakness,or at least not be effected by it as mch as if it was stronger. Obviously if thats the case then its going to be a greater threat down the road though further north then Dean and Felix given there are more weakness in the subtropical high pressure belt then there was a few weeks ago.

A cold front is coming thru Texas next week bringing temps down to the low to mid 80s here in the North.This may have an affect on this system during the period

[perk]

So I'm guessing if it stays weak then its going to miss the large upper weakness,or at least not be effected by it as mch as if it was stronger. Obviously if thats the case then its going to be a greater threat down the road though further north then Dean and Felix given there are more weakness in the subtropical high pressure belt then there was a few weeks ago.

A cold front is coming thru Texas next week bringing temps down to the low to mid 80s here in the North.This may have an affect on this system during the period

I doubt if this system will be far enough west to be influenced by that cold front dropping into Texas on Tuesday or Wednesday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

So I'm guessing if it stays weak then its going to miss the large upper weakness,or at least not be effected by it as mch as if it was stronger. Obviously if thats the case then its going to be a greater threat down the road though further north then Dean and Felix given there are more weakness in the subtropical high pressure belt then there was a few weeks ago.

A cold front is coming thru Texas next week bringing temps down to the low to mid 80s here in the North.This may have an affect on this system during the period

I doubt if this system will be far enough west to be influenced by that cold front dropping into Texas on Tuesday or Wednesday.

yeah, there is no chance. This system will still be in the open Atlantic at that point, and the weak front in Texas will be 1000s of miles to the west.

[Meso]

Wow..The wave to the SW and the wave that came off to the NE seem to be becoming one..That's a rather large area of clouds indeed.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078s.gif
GFS keeping it weaker than previous times,possibly a more westward track if it verifies.

[punkyg]

This wave still has convection and is now bigger then earlier. i wanna see what it does during Dmax.

[jlauderdal]

So I'm guessing if it stays weak then its going to miss the large upper weakness,or at least not be effected by it as mch as if it was stronger. Obviously if thats the case then its going to be a greater threat down the road though further north then Dean and Felix given there are more weakness in the subtropical high pressure belt then there was a few weeks ago.

A cold front is coming thru Texas next week bringing temps down to the low to mid 80s here in the North.This may have an affect on this system during the period

nope

[Gustywind]

Tkanks Meso....to remembered us that we're entering the heart of the season...and Africa seems ok to shown theses big clusters of convection almost 3 and another one futher east on the water...can be seen....on my untrained eyes or my eyes are deceiving me lool!!
Concerning the last run Meso, if i cleary understand, does the west trend mean a possible path very near the WINDW/Leewards Islands???? .
Hope GFS will be wrong, because if if if if this trend continues it will be bad news for us in the Leewards islands...
To early to speculate but GFS no more seems showing a very light weakness run after run since the last two?!!! Something to watch for the carib!

[Meso]

Well the thing is,if it does stay west (Not develop quick) it might not be that strong when it reaches the islands.But it's still hard to say this far out.Atmosphere seems to always prove the models wrong.GFS is now losing the closed low at 144 hours,still shows the wave,but just opens it up.BUT BUT BUT,the GFS has been TERRIBLE with the waves in the atlantic and showing them as actually cyclones instead of the open waves it has been showing the past few storms.Interesting to note that the GFS is showing another storm off the African coast in 144 hours

[Gustywind]

Beautiful activity on Africa almost 3 systems can be observed....on my untrained eyes untrained eyes or my eyes are deceiving me
If GFS is keeping the west trend , does this mean a possible landfall near or on the ISLANDS WINDW LEEW ? Hope GFS will be wrong! Something to watch for !