Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#301 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:43 pm

H+66 Stronger..slowly north..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

#302 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:44 pm

H+66 500mb notice the weakness over Florida and vicinity...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

jhamps10 · #303 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:45 pm

Vortex wrote:H+66 Stronger..slowly north..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

yeah a sub 1000mb on this image, chances are it would be a strong TS, maybe a cat 1 hurricane, depends on conditions, but looks like in this NAM run it will take it across cuba, and along the west florida coast.

#304 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:47 pm

H-+72

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

#305 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:50 pm

H+72 500mb

Also, watching shortwave coming out of rockies...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

Ptarmigan · #306 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:51 pm

southerngale wrote:Ed, Rita didn't miss Texas. Trust me... Rita was here. I still see the effects of Rita daily.

Btw, look closely. While the center did come across first at the part where Louisiana kinda sticks out "under" Texas, can you seriously call that a near miss for Texas? It hit and affected BOTH states.

Sorry, but it just annoys me when I hear that. I lived through Rita... I wish it had missed us.

Think about it... if we were devastated by another hurricane that hit where Rita hit, 99.9% of the people dealing with it aren't going to care where the eye first crossed anyway... it won't change what just happened to their lives.

Ok, back to these model runs. I will feel a lot better for Texas when September is over. I felt "fairly" safe before Rita, thinking it was most likely too late for Texas, then she came along and changed that way of thinking. A lot of people around here are nervous. Then Humberto rapidly formed and hit us.... a lot of people are on edge, but at least more people are aware and paying more attention than they used to.

Even though Rita made landfall on Louisiana, I still consider it a Texas hurricane because it hit really hard. Most of the deaths were in Texas.

#307 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:52 pm

H+78

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

#308 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:58 pm

84+ Based on the pattern at end of period would likely move over central/western cuba then florida keys or even the Florida peninsula...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

tropicsgal05 · #309 Postby **tropicsgal05** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:00 pm

I'm not good at reading these model maps but i'm trying to learn. The only way i know to ask this question is, are we suppose to be looking at the blob below Cuba? Is this what will be moving into the GOM?

jhamps10 · #310 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:01 pm

tropicsgal05 wrote:I'm not good at reading these model maps but i'm trying to learn. The only way i know to ask this question is, are we suppose to be looking at the blob below Cuba? Is this what will be moving into the GOM?

yep, that's what is forecast to go into the GOM.

#311 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:03 pm

Looks like the Keys to me. A little to the west and I may have problems, a little to the east and it might not survive Cuba.

Derek Ortt · #312 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:04 pm

the models are indicating that there may be development. However, it looks to be a potentially sheared development based upon a quick look I had of the shear fields at halftime of that disgrace ND had today. Something to keep watch on, though I am not 100% certain that this scenario of a shered Tc will pan out

#313 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:07 pm

Area NW of colombia really exploding tonight...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

jhamps10 · #314 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:09 pm

Vortex wrote:Area NW of colombia really exploding tonight...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

yes, and it looks like we have some turning of the convection too, possible invest tomorrow if this goes completely off the colombian coast.

Ptarmigan · #315 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:10 pm

Whatever happens when two storms form, the next names will be Jerry and Karen.

Ptarmigan · #316 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:13 pm

Vortex wrote:Area NW of colombia really exploding tonight...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Hurricane Carla formed in the Caribbean, not too far from Colombia.

#317 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:20 pm

Thats precisley where I expect this to form but a different path initially..

Ptarmigan · #318 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:22 pm

Vortex wrote:Thats precisley where I expect this to form but a different path initially..

I remember Joe Bastardi saying that the conditions are similar to Carla and Katrina.

Extremeweatherguy · #319 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:22 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:While Texas isn't 100% safe, this point out, IIRC, in last 65 years, Rita, a near miss, but with hurricane conditions in Texas, a 1949 storm on October 3rd, a strong Cat 2 or lower Cat 3 near Freeport, and an October 1989 barely Cat 1 Jerry into Galveston the same weekend Peter Gardere and the Cash brothers broke the OU winning streak, starting a Texas winning streak against the Sooners, from mid-September on.

In the last 60 years.

Note, just 4 years back, Lili was an October storm about 70 miles East of the Texas line.

So, theoretically, climatology says it isn't impossible, but darned unlikely for a Cat 1 or higher to hit Texas from this point on.

Compare and contrast, 1985, IIRC, borderline Cat2/Cat3, November, Hurricane Kate into the Florida Panhandle. More recently, Opal and Wilma come to mind.

jhamps10 · #320 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:27 pm

gfs just getting started now guys.

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