2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Emmett_Brown]

Unless most of the models are wrong, and they could very well be, Cape Verde season is about to begin. There's always a chance that 2020 will be another line on that ACE graph that shows a delayed start to the big ACE producers and yet still manages to produce a lot of ACE. Looks like it's going to be a very interesting September, regardless.

Yes. I recall (don't remember where I saw it) that Cape Verde seasons sometimes start late and end late in La Nina years. This seems to fit.

[Aric Dunn]

Season Cancelled Indicator...

[ClarCari]

Season Cancelled Indicator...

https://i.ibb.co/Lthcvzh/two-atl-5d0.png

And half of those areas you called out dayzzz ago
Good on you Aric!

[EquusStorm]

All aboard the wave train.

[BYG Jacob]

How so? Yes it doesn’t go by impact but it definitely tells the story of the season when you have 17 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane with a total ACE less of that of for say Dorian of last year.

It isn't the end all be all and tells you nothing about a season other than how many Cap Verde hurricanes there were.

On the first point, we're all but guaranteed to end up with at least average ACE, though I imagine once the monsoon trough moves further south we'll get at least one long tracker. We had a lot of spin-up storms this year that I don't feel would've formed with a normal background state.

On the second point, 2005 barely had any and much of it came from the Gulf. ACE is a combined measurement of intensity and duration of intensity. It is also the sole meterological determinant as to what counts as "hyperactive" as that is based entirely off of ACE reaching a certain point and dismissing the measurement is akin to making up your own meaning for what an active season is. The entire eastern half of the Atlantic basin has so far proven unfavorable for anything to reach hurricane intensity which can't be brushed off at this point.

Based on what authority? Just because people use it doesn't make it so determinative

[Hammy]

It isn't the end all be all and tells you nothing about a season other than how many Cap Verde hurricanes there were.

On the first point, we're all but guaranteed to end up with at least average ACE, though I imagine once the monsoon trough moves further south we'll get at least one long tracker. We had a lot of spin-up storms this year that I don't feel would've formed with a normal background state.

On the second point, 2005 barely had any and much of it came from the Gulf. ACE is a combined measurement of intensity and duration of intensity. It is also the sole meterological determinant as to what counts as "hyperactive" as that is based entirely off of ACE reaching a certain point and dismissing the measurement is akin to making up your own meaning for what an active season is. The entire eastern half of the Atlantic basin has so far proven unfavorable for anything to reach hurricane intensity which can't be brushed off at this point.

Based on what authority? Just because people use it doesn't make it so determinative

These are official meteorological criteria, not just what people use or don't use. The problem is that people are mis-using the term, especially in articles who just want a big flashy headline. 2020 has definitely been significantly above normal in named storms but, like the intensity scales, there's a set statistical criteria that makes that determines what years qualify as hyperactive--similar to how winds are a strict determination of what qualifies as a hurricane. Applying "hyperactive" just because we want to is like calling everything a hurricane just because it receives a name.

Back to the topic.

 https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1303879946474065920

[gatorcane]

Latest SST anomaly configuration. We have a classic La Niña look, also warmer than normal SSTs across the Caribbean out through the Atlantic MDR. I am not looking past September but I do think indicators suggest a very active October for the Caribbean. The ITCZ will move south and waves will head towards the Caribbean where they will find close to ideal conditions. Florida and the NGOM/EGOM will need to keep a WARY eye to the south next month

[aspen]

I’m starting to think 30 named storms is not out of the question. TD-19 is set to become the fifth named storm this September, with 95L likely to follow, and there’s still another two weeks left of the month. Not to mention that October could be very active as well. It’s looking more likely that 2020 will tie or even break the record for the most named TCs in September (8), and October probably won’t be a slouch either. 3 more storms after 95L/Teddy (9 total in September), 5 in October, and 2 in November-December would get us to 29/Theta. If October 2020 decides to challenge the record number of named storms in that month (also 8), that’ll be enough to break 30/Iota.

It’s absolutely insane that a 30 NS season, breaking 2005’s total storm count, is even on the table at all. While 2020 probably won’t break its record number of majors, I could see it getting close to 2005 and 2010 in terms of hurricanes.

[Hammy]

I’m starting to think 30 named storms is not out of the question. TD-19 is set to become the fifth named storm this September, with 95L likely to follow, and there’s still another two weeks left of the month. Not to mention that October could be very active as well. It’s looking more likely that 2020 will tie or even break the record for the most named TCs in September (8), and October probably won’t be a slouch either. 3 more storms after 95L/Teddy (9 total in September), 5 in October, and 2 in November-December would get us to 29/Theta. If October 2020 decides to challenge the record number of named storms in that month (also 8), that’ll be enough to break 30/Iota.

It’s absolutely insane that a 30 NS season, breaking 2005’s total storm count, is even on the table at all. While 2020 probably won’t break its record number of majors, I could see it getting close to 2005 and 2010 in terms of hurricanes.

Ten hurricanes at minimum is looking unavoidable at this point. Paulette and 95L would bring us to 7 and if TD19 can go a bit higher than forecast (as everything west of 65-70W has this year) that'll be 8.

In fact we're actually matching or exceeding 2005's total S/H/MH base numbers post-July unless things unexpectedly shut down after the current outbreak--August saw 5/2/1 vs this year's 5/3/1 (as much of Isaias's life span was in August) and September will likely hit 6/4/1 by mid-month--exceeding 2005's 3/3/1 up to that point for September.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1304798727127744513



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1303067554420723712

[toad strangler]

Again. ACE is what it is and for the people living on the Gulf coast they could care less about it. No to trash the metric, as I do realize it has real scientific value, but to me it doesn't rate because it's blind to human impacts.

[TheStormExpert]

Well HOPEFULLY we’re about to rack up some decent ACE with Paulette, TD #20, and to some extent Sally. But the 200 ACE units per NOAA last month is not happening in my opinion.

[ClarCari]

Well HOPEFULLY we’re about to rack up some decent ACE with Paulette, TD #20, and to some extent Sally. But the 200 ACE units per NOAA last month is not happening in my opinion.

Friendly bet . I’ll see ya at the end of October when we have 200+ ACE

[aspen]

I still think there’s a decent chance that 2020 could become one of the top ten ACE makers, although it would be low on the list. The combo of Paulette and Teddy will likely be enough to break 100 ACE, and then we have the rest of September and all of October for more 20+ ACE storms to form. Even a home-grown system can be a good contributor; Wilma was a major for so long that it racked up over 30 ACE.

[Hammy]

Latest SST anomaly configuration. We have a classic La Niña look, also warmer than normal SSTs across the Caribbean out through the Atlantic MDR. I am not looking past September but I do think indicators suggest a very active October for the Caribbean. The ITCZ will move south and waves will head towards the Caribbean where they will find close to ideal conditions. Florida and the NGOM/EGOM will need to keep a WARY eye to the south next month

https://i.postimg.cc/0j3xHFH7/ssta-daily-current.png

Regarding the SSTs around 20-25N and between 25-45W--can SSTs have an impact on moisture? This is the area Rene tracked through and while seems like dry air has been the biggest issue, I wonder how much of that has to do with straddling the line of cooler water temps as that area is also in the upper 70s.

[TheStormExpert]

One thing that seems obvious is the teleconnections aren’t behaving their usual selfs. When we had -NAO back last month and in July there was ridging over SE Canada and the NW Atlantic that steered storms such as Isaias, and Fay into the U.S. East Coast. Now we have a +NAO and the opposite with troughs swinging through the same area is occurring. Of course 2020 has been behaving however it wants. Anyone else have anything to add to this?

[CyclonicFury]

The NHC is currently forecasting Paulette, Sally and TD 20L to all be hurricanes at 72 hours. The Atlantic has a chance at having 3 simultaneously active hurricanes, which happened most recently in 2018.

[eastcoastFL]

Have we ever seen another map this jam packed at one time? Were there this many systems active in the Atlantic at once in prior active seasons? 2020 may not have produced an abundance of majors or long trackers yet but it sure hasn’t been boring. We still have a long ways to go also.

[eastcoastFL]

The NHC is currently forecasting Paulette, Sally and TD 20L to all be hurricanes at 72 hours. The Atlantic has a chance at having 3 simultaneously active hurricanes, which happened most recently in 2018.

I wonder if TD 20Can make it to cane status before Sally makes landfall again.

[USTropics]

Once again VP anomalies over Africa and western IO are a leading indicator for hurricane activity in the Atlantic:


Currently the Atlantic is dominating the global tropics:




The CFS weekly VP anomaly forecast continues to show an active phase through the middle of October: