2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

Great tweet & discussion thread this morning from Dr Phil, this wave breaking pattern we have been since at least the middle of July has definitely thrown a monkey wrench to the forecast with a fairly quite August so far, but the ECMWF shows is about to change.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1562039133698002944




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1562042915064406017




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1562043541295177729

Euro weeklies have been showing the flip for a while now unfortunately. Here’s an earlier run showing the flip to occur during this week which has now been pushed back 1-2 weeks. Earlier runs also predicted a burst of activity during mid August and we all know how that went. I am guessing that’s why he started with “for what’s it worth”…




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[cycloneye]

Webb says no named storms in rest of August.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1562066260719939584

[SoupBone]

Webb says no named storms in rest of August.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1562066260719939584

This is crazy to think about. Someone posted it but I can't find it, what years on record have not seen a named system in August?

[Category5Kaiju]

Webb says no named storms in rest of August.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1562066260719939584

This is crazy to think about. Someone posted it but I can't find it, what years on record have not seen a named system in August?

1961 was the most infamous year to do that.

[skyline385]

Webb says no named storms in rest of August.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1562066260719939584

This is crazy to think about. Someone posted it but I can't find it, what years on record have not seen a named system in August?

1961 was the most infamous year to do that.

I mentioned in that thread that 1961 is pretty far back and there is a chance that in the satellite era we could have spotted some weak stray systems. Post 1967, there hasn’t been an occurrence of an above average season with a quiet August afaik.

Interestingly enough, 1967 had a completely quiet July and the first storm formed on August 28 but it still went on to end with an above average season


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[ElectricStorm]

This is crazy to think about. Someone posted it but I can't find it, what years on record have not seen a named system in August?

1961 was the most infamous year to do that.

I mentioned in that thread that 1961 is pretty far back and there is a chance that in the satellite era we could have spotted some weak stray systems. Post 1967, there hasn’t been an occurrence of an above average season with a quiet August afaik.


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2001 and 2018

[aspen]

Great tweet & discussion thread this morning from Dr Phil, this wave breaking pattern we have been since at least the middle of July has definitely thrown a monkey wrench to the forecast with a fairly quite August so far, but the ECMWF shows is about to change.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1562039133698002944

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1562042915064406017

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1562043541295177729

Euro weeklies have been showing the flip for a while now unfortunately. Here’s an earlier run showing the flip to occur during this week which has now been pushed back 1-2 weeks. Earlier runs also predicted a burst of activity during mid August and we all know how that went. I am guessing that’s why he started with “for what’s it worth”…

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220823/08d85c13d4a0e82aaa6b439c83011c9a.jpg


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I’m really starting to think there won’t be any switch flip this year. The start of this season’s activity peak has been pushed back for the last several weeks now, the models constantly push back development, two of the only three invests this month have failed to develop, wave-breaking and SAL have not let up…we might be looking at one of the least active hurricane seasons on record at this rate. The models have failed so much with predicting enhanced activity, why should we think they’re finally right when so far the trends are against them?

[Category5Kaiju]

This is crazy to think about. Someone posted it but I can't find it, what years on record have not seen a named system in August?

1961 was the most infamous year to do that.

I mentioned in that thread that 1961 is pretty far back and there is a chance that in the satellite era we could have spotted some weak stray systems. Post 1967, there hasn’t been an occurrence of an above average season with a quiet August afaik.


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Yeah, I know; either way, it’s pretty clear that we’re in some uncharted territory here. Between the unusual amount of inactivity/wave breaking with a weak La Niña background and (as far as I can tell) pretty warm MDR sst anomalies, this year is genuinely strange without many decent analogs. I think at this point all I can do is sit back and watch and see what happens; clearly, this season isn’t really following the conventions of how La Niña Atlantic seasons typically work.

[skyline385]

1961 was the most infamous year to do that.

I mentioned in that thread that 1961 is pretty far back and there is a chance that in the satellite era we could have spotted some weak stray systems. Post 1967, there hasn’t been an occurrence of an above average season with a quiet August afaik.


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2001 and 2018

2018 had 2 hurricanes in July and 2 TS in August
2001 had 3 TS in August


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[ElectricStorm]

I mentioned in that thread that 1961 is pretty far back and there is a chance that in the satellite era we could have spotted some weak stray systems. Post 1967, there hasn’t been an occurrence of an above average season with a quiet August afaik.


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2001 and 2018

2018 had 2 hurricanes in July and 2 TS in August
2001 had 3 TS in August


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Those are both pretty quiet for August standards though and both still went on to be above average

[DorkyMcDorkface]

1961 was the most infamous year to do that.

I mentioned in that thread that 1961 is pretty far back and there is a chance that in the satellite era we could have spotted some weak stray systems. Post 1967, there hasn’t been an occurrence of an above average season with a quiet August afaik.


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2001 and 2018

Those still had NS in August, just not hurricanes (which in itself is also rare). 2001 had Barry, Chantal and Dean, 2018 had Debby and Ernesto, and also Florence formed on the 31st but didn't get named until September 1st. 1997 was the most recent season I can think of where August was dead and that was one of the strongest El Niños in recorded history, so yes in terms of -ENSO years 1961 was the most recent one with no recorded NS in August. Granted that season still managed to have a very active September and October which propelled it to hyperactive status but I would say it was an anomaly in that regard.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm quite curious to see how seasonal forecasting will be affected should this season really bust. Will mid-level dry air become weighed at an even greater level than before in determining a season's activity? Or maybe there'll be some more emphasis on the specific type of ENSO state (La Nina or El Nino) (so first year, second year, third year, etc. may become more important in our indicators than before?)

[skyline385]

2001 and 2018

2018 had 2 hurricanes in July and 2 TS in August
2001 had 3 TS in August


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Those are both pretty quiet for August standards though and both still went on to be above average

There are tons of examples of that though, also that begs the question then that what are the standards for a quiet August? The current situation is that we might end without a single system in August under what should be traditionally very favorable conditions.


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[tarheelprogrammer]

Could we go the whole season without a hurricane? Has that happened before?

[Iceresistance]

Could we go the whole season without a hurricane? Has that happened before?

Not in the satellite era, 1914 had only 1 known Tropical Storm, but then again, the communications were interrupted by WW1.

[skyline385]

Just to add a little more to this, 1961 actually had a Cat 2 in mid-July. Meanwhile all we have had so far are two sloppy PTC systems which barely managed to reach TS status and a storm which formed inland for 12 hours lol.


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[ElectricStorm]

2018 had 2 hurricanes in July and 2 TS in August
2001 had 3 TS in August


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Those are both pretty quiet for August standards though and both still went on to be above average

There are tons of examples of that though, also that begs the question then that what are the standards for a quiet August? The current situation is that we might end without a single system in August under what should be traditionally very favorable conditions.


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No doubt 0 NS would be completely unexpected for August, but to me September and October could theoretically still get this season to above average despite the extremely slow start. My preseason ACE estimate was 140 and as crazy as it sounds, I think we could still get to that.

[skyline385]

Those are both pretty quiet for August standards though and both still went on to be above average

There are tons of examples of that though, also that begs the question then that what are the standards for a quiet August? The current situation is that we might end without a single system in August under what should be traditionally very favorable conditions.


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No doubt 0 NS would be completely unexpected for August, but to me September and October could theoretically still get this season to above average despite the extremely slow start. My preseason ACE estimate was 140 and as crazy as it sounds, I think we could still get to that.

Am in the same boat, i just posted in the thread yesterday that 140 ACE is still reachable but it does need to get going soon.


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[LarryWx]

Just to add a little more to this, 1961 actually had a Cat 2 in mid-July. Meanwhile all we have had so far are two sloppy PTC systems which barely managed to reach TS status and a storm which formed inland for 12 hours lol.


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But to be fair, Bonnie's AEW was very impressive considering it was only late June. And folks were commenting on how it looked more like the heart of the MDR season rather than June then. Anyone can go back to the threads and see this to remind us how impressive the MDR was then.

[toad strangler]

Just to add a little more to this, 1961 actually had a Cat 2 in mid-July. Meanwhile all we have had so far are two sloppy PTC systems which barely managed to reach TS status and a storm which formed inland for 12 hours lol.


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But to be fair, Bonnie's AEW was very impressive considering it was only late June. And folks were commenting on how it looked more like the heart of the MDR season rather than June then. Anyone can go back to the threads and see this to remind us how impressive the MDR was then.

This is true and there were many posts opining on how wicked the waves would be in August given that beast of a wave. It seems the tropics never behave like one would expect.