2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

And this why we must keep watching the Caribbean..

[AutoPenalti]

And this why we must keep watching the Caribbean..

https://i.imgur.com/2Gh3rRI.gif

Looks like it forms from a CAG. This is probably going to be pushed back since it's usually slow development.

Unless it comes from a wave coming out of Africa within the next couple of days.

[SFLcane]

And this why we must keep watching the Caribbean..

https://i.imgur.com/2Gh3rRI.gif

Looks like it forms from a CAG. This is probably going to be pushed back since it's usually slow development.

Unless it comes from a wave coming out of Africa within the next couple of days.

Nope a front you can see it to our south. Could be the spark for more development

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS shows whatever comes next from the Western Caribbean will miss Florida to the South and East and affect Cuba and The Bahamas on its way out. Let’s see what the 12z GFS shows as it’s running now.

[SFLcane]

06z GFS shows whatever comes next from the Western Caribbean will miss Florida to the South and East and affect Cuba and The Bahamas on its way out. Let’s see what the 12z GFS shows as it’s running now.

don’t put to much stock on deterministic solutions. Ensembles

[SFLcane]

Potential catalyst...

[TheStormExpert]

We might even see some Subtropical/Tropical development just off the SE U.S. Coast late next week with this cutoff low.

[SFLcane]

[EquusStorm]

Reminder that models just flaked on a category four Caribbean hurricane until right before development so any even vauge signal over those extremely warm waters is very well deserving of close monitoring; might be less of a US threat later on but Mitch and Hattie certainly caused issues, to say the least, for Central America in late October. Any consistent trend for SW Caribbean activity on globals in a La Niña October or even early November is pretty noteworthy imo

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS looks to have dropped development in the Western Caribbean.

If we can make it through the next two weeks without the models showing anything heading NE out of the Western Caribbean then the Florida peninsula likely dodged a big bullet in this very busy hurricane season.

[TheProfessor]

Reminder that models just flaked on a category four Caribbean hurricane until right before development so any even vauge signal over those extremely warm waters is very well deserving of close monitoring; might be less of a US threat later on but Mitch and Hattie certainly caused issues, to say the least, for Central America in late October. Any consistent trend for SW Caribbean activity on globals in a La Niña October or even early November is pretty noteworthy imo

The GEFS performed very well with this period for Gamma and Delta. Obviously track wasn't handled well, but you don't expected that 240+ hours out. The fact that it showed a signal right where Gamma and Delta developed is pretty spectacular. Meanwhile the GEPS, which I had been favoring this year was too aggressive and too far east. The GFS and EPS were too far west with Gamma wanting to develop it in the EPAC right behind Marie.

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS appears to drop it - waiting on the ENS

[tolakram]

Hi all,

please keep this on topic and avoid criticising other members or telling other members how they should behave. You are welcome to disagree, respectfully and give your opinion.

A series of posts were moved to the moderation room (this is standard practice, though I sometimes say deleted in error).

Thanks.

[SFLcane]

CPC already highlighting the area for potential development.

 https://twitter.com/drkimwood/status/1313854573543596032

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS has a moderate signal for W Car genesis 10/15-7 with a few strong members fwiw.

[TheStormExpert]

CPC already highlighting the area for potential development.

https://twitter.com/drkimwood/status/1313854573543596032?

It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. I still think we could see two more storms this month.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z GEFS has a moderate signal for W Car genesis 10/15-7 with a few strong members fwiw.

How does it compare to 00z or 06z?

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS has a moderate signal for W Car genesis 10/15-7 with a few strong members fwiw.

How does it compare to 00z or 06z?

Similar to 6Z and a little stronger vs 0Z.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS has a moderate signal for W Car genesis 10/15-7 with a few strong members fwiw.

How does it compare to 00z or 06z?

Similar to 6Z and a little stronger vs 0Z.

One member, the strongest one, landfalls on the FL Panhandle moving NE on 10/21:

[LarryWx]

The 21 member 12Z CMC ensemble (I realize it tends to be too genesis happy but OTOH the EPS is too genesis shy) has a pretty strong signal for W Caribbean genesis 10/14-17 with ~ 50% of its members becoming a TC there or nearby:



About 5 (25%) of these TCs go on to either hit TX (one member) or either hit FL (3 members with 2 of those hitting SW FL and one hitting the Panhandle) or skim FL (one member). Several (~3) go west into MX and don't come out.

For those wondering about past seasons with records of 3 Oct W Car geneses: they were 2005 and 1870; also 1879 gets an honorable mention though one of its 3 formed just E of the Caribbean. All 4 of the years (2020, 2005, 1879, and 1870) are in the the weak to moderate La Nina category.

There were probably a few more that were missed prior to 1960. Regardless, it is a pretty rare feat that 2020 may very well do.