2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Hammy]

Where are you pulling the shear data from?

https://i.imgur.com/0xVrI3v.png

source: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

There did appear to be a spike in late August through mid-September, which likely was a result of a TUTT related to Typhoon Maysak. That prevented Paulette and Rene from strengthening significantly over the MDR, and prevented the season from being even busier ACE wise. Still a very active season regardless.

Very interesting how one system at the other side of the world can have such a big impact on the Atlantic. Paulette/Rene May have become long-tracking majors if it wasn’t for that introduction of shear (Typhoon induced). The small things can make a big difference. Either way this season is ludicrous.

Rene tracked over cooler waters and into a region of the Atlantic that tends to be drier in the first place. There was no shear present, at least outside of easterly shear for a day or so--in fact the upper environment was quite favorable until after it had already begun degenerating into a wave and was never able to sustain convection for a long enough period.

Paulette I think simply ended up being too far north, the environment to the south was more favorable but the entire wave train was displaced far to the north.

[TheStormExpert]

There did appear to be a spike in late August through mid-September, which likely was a result of a TUTT related to Typhoon Maysak. That prevented Paulette and Rene from strengthening significantly over the MDR, and prevented the season from being even busier ACE wise. Still a very active season regardless.

Very interesting how one system at the other side of the world can have such a big impact on the Atlantic. Paulette/Rene May have become long-tracking majors if it wasn’t for that introduction of shear (Typhoon induced). The small things can make a big difference. Either way this season is ludicrous.

Rene tracked over cooler waters and into a region of the Atlantic that tends to be drier in the first place. There was no shear present, at least outside of easterly shear for a day or so--in fact the upper environment was quite favorable until after it had already begun degenerating into a wave and was never able to sustain convection for a long enough period.

Paulette I think simply ended up being too far north, the environment to the south was more favorable but the entire wave train was displaced far to the north.

Paulette got ahold of some of that smoke from the California wildfires, hence probably why it failed to become a major hurricane. I mean for there nearly being twenty-one storms two majors isn’t too impressive and a weird ratio.

In my opinion this season is a little bit like 2012 on steroids.

[TheStormExpert]

It’ll be interesting to see how things evolve over the next few weeks.

 https://twitter.com/thestevecop/status/1306745213189328900

[Hammy]

Very interesting how one system at the other side of the world can have such a big impact on the Atlantic. Paulette/Rene May have become long-tracking majors if it wasn’t for that introduction of shear (Typhoon induced). The small things can make a big difference. Either way this season is ludicrous.

Rene tracked over cooler waters and into a region of the Atlantic that tends to be drier in the first place. There was no shear present, at least outside of easterly shear for a day or so--in fact the upper environment was quite favorable until after it had already begun degenerating into a wave and was never able to sustain convection for a long enough period.

Paulette I think simply ended up being too far north, the environment to the south was more favorable but the entire wave train was displaced far to the north.

Paulette got ahold of some of that smoke from the California wildfires, hence probably why it failed to become a major hurricane. I mean for there nearly being twenty-one storms two majors isn’t too impressive and a weird ratio.

In my opinion this season is a little bit like 2012 on steroids.

Honestly it sort of feels like one of those years from the 60s/70s where you have some strong hurricanes, a few long trackers, and a ton of depressions--except this year all those depressions developed on top of the hurricanes.

[TheStormExpert]

Rene tracked over cooler waters and into a region of the Atlantic that tends to be drier in the first place. There was no shear present, at least outside of easterly shear for a day or so--in fact the upper environment was quite favorable until after it had already begun degenerating into a wave and was never able to sustain convection for a long enough period.

Paulette I think simply ended up being too far north, the environment to the south was more favorable but the entire wave train was displaced far to the north.

Paulette got ahold of some of that smoke from the California wildfires, hence probably why it failed to become a major hurricane. I mean for there nearly being twenty-one storms two majors isn’t too impressive and a weird ratio.

In my opinion this season is a little bit like 2012 on steroids.

Honestly it sort of feels like one of those years from the 60s/70s where you have some strong hurricanes, a few long trackers, and a ton of depressions--except this year all those depressions developed on top of the hurricanes.

Well 2012’s total was 19/10/2. Right now we’re at 20/8/2.

I could easily see us getting four more hurricanes, especially if TD #22 becomes one. But for majors 1-2 more seems reasonable at the moment.

If that’s the case then the total hurricanes and major hurricanes would be 12 and 4 respectively. Not sure how many named storms total we’ll have but I could easily see 30 if trends continue.

[ElectricStorm]

Very interesting how one system at the other side of the world can have such a big impact on the Atlantic. Paulette/Rene May have become long-tracking majors if it wasn’t for that introduction of shear (Typhoon induced). The small things can make a big difference. Either way this season is ludicrous.

Rene tracked over cooler waters and into a region of the Atlantic that tends to be drier in the first place. There was no shear present, at least outside of easterly shear for a day or so--in fact the upper environment was quite favorable until after it had already begun degenerating into a wave and was never able to sustain convection for a long enough period.

Paulette I think simply ended up being too far north, the environment to the south was more favorable but the entire wave train was displaced far to the north.

Paulette got ahold of some of that smoke from the California wildfires, hence probably why it failed to become a major hurricane. I mean for there nearly being twenty-one storms two majors isn’t too impressive and a weird ratio.

In my opinion this season is a little bit like 2012 on steroids.

Yeah if the season keeps this up 2012 would work. But I could also see this being a 2016 on steroids. 2016 was similar to this year in the fact most of the storms were on the weaker side but then it finished with 3 consecutive majors including a cat 5. I could see us getting some October monsters down there in the Caribbean. And I also don't trust TD 22 one bit. With the way things have been this year in the gulf, and the amount of time this thing is going to have, I could see it attempt a run a major at some point in its life.

[TheStormExpert]

Rene tracked over cooler waters and into a region of the Atlantic that tends to be drier in the first place. There was no shear present, at least outside of easterly shear for a day or so--in fact the upper environment was quite favorable until after it had already begun degenerating into a wave and was never able to sustain convection for a long enough period.

Paulette I think simply ended up being too far north, the environment to the south was more favorable but the entire wave train was displaced far to the north.

Paulette got ahold of some of that smoke from the California wildfires, hence probably why it failed to become a major hurricane. I mean for there nearly being twenty-one storms two majors isn’t too impressive and a weird ratio.

In my opinion this season is a little bit like 2012 on steroids.

Yeah if the season keeps this up 2012 would work. But I could also see this being a 2016 on steroids. 2016 was similar to this year in the fact most of the storms were on the weaker side but then it finished with 3 consecutive majors including a cat 5. I could see us getting some October monsters down there in the Caribbean. And I also don't trust TD 22 one bit. With the way things have been this year in the gulf, and the amount of time this thing is going to have, I could see it attempt a run a major at some point in its life.

I remember many were expecting an epic October 2017 and all we got was Cat.1 Nate, Cat.3 Ophelia in the NE Subtropical Atlantic, and punny Philippe which barely even lasted a day. Not saying that this will be the same but high expectations were set in October 2017 due to the La Niña and only 3/2/1 formed the whole month.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Paulette got ahold of some of that smoke from the California wildfires, hence probably why it failed to become a major hurricane. I mean for there nearly being twenty-one storms two majors isn’t too impressive and a weird ratio.

In my opinion this season is a little bit like 2012 on steroids.

Yeah if the season keeps this up 2012 would work. But I could also see this being a 2016 on steroids. 2016 was similar to this year in the fact most of the storms were on the weaker side but then it finished with 3 consecutive majors including a cat 5. I could see us getting some October monsters down there in the Caribbean. And I also don't trust TD 22 one bit. With the way things have been this year in the gulf, and the amount of time this thing is going to have, I could see it attempt a run a major at some point in its life.

I remember many were expecting an epic October 2017 and all we got was Cat.1 Nate, Cat.3 Ophelia in the NE Subtropical Atlantic, and punny Philippe which barely even lasted a day. Not saying that this will be the same but high expectations were set in October 2017 due to the La Niña and only 3/2/1 formed the whole month.

to be fair, 2017 started out as quite warm neutral before crashing, and that season only had an extremely active september with all other months being much more quiet. in contrast, this season has been extremely consistent with favorable conditions, as it has been firing 3-5 (or more) storms per month. each month has had at least 2 hurricanes since july, and august and september have had 1 each so far.

with that being said, 2020 is a consistently active season, and i expect the first 20 days of october to continue that.

[ClarCari]

Paulette got ahold of some of that smoke from the California wildfires, hence probably why it failed to become a major hurricane. I mean for there nearly being twenty-one storms two majors isn’t too impressive and a weird ratio.

In my opinion this season is a little bit like 2012 on steroids.

Yeah if the season keeps this up 2012 would work. But I could also see this being a 2016 on steroids. 2016 was similar to this year in the fact most of the storms were on the weaker side but then it finished with 3 consecutive majors including a cat 5. I could see us getting some October monsters down there in the Caribbean. And I also don't trust TD 22 one bit. With the way things have been this year in the gulf, and the amount of time this thing is going to have, I could see it attempt a run a major at some point in its life.

I remember many were expecting an epic October 2017 and all we got was Cat.1 Nate, Cat.3 Ophelia in the NE Subtropical Atlantic, and punny Philippe which barely even lasted a day. Not saying that this will be the same but high expectations were set in October 2017 due to the La Niña and only 3/2/1 formed the whole month.

In 2017, the season had barely much before Harvey and September, whereas 2020 had quite a buttload of pre-September activity. 2017, even with it’s La Niña, didn’t have as much of a favorable background that 2020 has, just that September 2017 was the only month of the season where things were perfect. October forecasts this year are a different and more ominous kind than what 2017 October forecasts were.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah if the season keeps this up 2012 would work. But I could also see this being a 2016 on steroids. 2016 was similar to this year in the fact most of the storms were on the weaker side but then it finished with 3 consecutive majors including a cat 5. I could see us getting some October monsters down there in the Caribbean. And I also don't trust TD 22 one bit. With the way things have been this year in the gulf, and the amount of time this thing is going to have, I could see it attempt a run a major at some point in its life.

I remember many were expecting an epic October 2017 and all we got was Cat.1 Nate, Cat.3 Ophelia in the NE Subtropical Atlantic, and punny Philippe which barely even lasted a day. Not saying that this will be the same but high expectations were set in October 2017 due to the La Niña and only 3/2/1 formed the whole month.

In 2017, the season had barely much before Harvey and September, whereas 2020 had quite a buttload of pre-September activity. 2017, even with it’s La Niña, didn’t have as much of a favorable background that 2020 has, just that September 2017 was the only month of the season where things were perfect. October forecasts this year are a different and more ominous kind than what 2017 October forecasts were.

Well we also saw six majors in total that year, one short of the record seven seen in years like 2005. By this time in 2017 we were getting ready to see Maria become the fourth major.

Yes the background state is likely more favorable than for say 2017 as a whole but there’s something out there that’s prevented several hurricanes from blowing up into majors. Yes land proximity and time is one of them.

[ClarCari]

I remember many were expecting an epic October 2017 and all we got was Cat.1 Nate, Cat.3 Ophelia in the NE Subtropical Atlantic, and punny Philippe which barely even lasted a day. Not saying that this will be the same but high expectations were set in October 2017 due to the La Niña and only 3/2/1 formed the whole month.

In 2017, the season had barely much before Harvey and September, whereas 2020 had quite a buttload of pre-September activity. 2017, even with it’s La Niña, didn’t have as much of a favorable background that 2020 has, just that September 2017 was the only month of the season where things were perfect. October forecasts this year are a different and more ominous kind than what 2017 October forecasts were.

Well we also saw six majors in total that year, one short of the record seven seen in years like 2005. By this time in 2017 we were getting ready to see Maria become the fourth major.

Yes the background state is likely more favorable than for say 2017 as a whole but there’s something out there that’s prevented several hurricanes from blowing up into majors. Yes land proximity and time is one of them.

This year so far is living up to my expectations of a 2005 and 2017 crossover. With characteristics of both. Record early and very likely record late activity like 2005, whereas the bulk of the intense activity is in the peak of the season like 2017, although I highly expect more October activity than 2017 and more reminiscent of 2005, whereas 2005’s activity was pretty spread out with 1 Cat.5 and 1 Major U.S. landfall a month from July-October.

[Hammy]

I remember many were expecting an epic October 2017 and all we got was Cat.1 Nate, Cat.3 Ophelia in the NE Subtropical Atlantic, and punny Philippe which barely even lasted a day. Not saying that this will be the same but high expectations were set in October 2017 due to the La Niña and only 3/2/1 formed the whole month.

In 2017, the season had barely much before Harvey and September, whereas 2020 had quite a buttload of pre-September activity. 2017, even with it’s La Niña, didn’t have as much of a favorable background that 2020 has, just that September 2017 was the only month of the season where things were perfect. October forecasts this year are a different and more ominous kind than what 2017 October forecasts were.

Well we also saw six majors in total that year, one short of the record seven seen in years like 2005. By this time in 2017 we were getting ready to see Maria become the fourth major.

Yes the background state is likely more favorable than for say 2017 as a whole but there’s something out there that’s prevented several hurricanes from blowing up into majors. Yes land proximity and time is one of them.

I recall reading something about the troposphere being higher or something to that extent, regarding 2017. This year's biggest inhibitor to storms getting stronger over the MDR has been a combination of how far north the ITCZ has been--were it further south, Paulette would've likely become a major (both avoiding the shear and cooler water), Rene would've likely become a hurricane (as the upper air pattern was quite favorable much of the time) and Vicky would've more than likely strengthened further--and the large monsoonal nature of the waves--something that certainly delayed Isaias, Laura, Marco, Nana, and Paulette's development.

Teddy is a perfect example of this--the incipient disturbance was more typical of a tropical wave and much further south than anything that's developed in the MDR this month and it reached 140mph.

One thing that struck me as interesting that year is how largely spread out development was--rather than having storm outbreaks, a lot of the overlapping activity was the result of how long a lot of the storms lasted. 13 days between Harvey and Irma, another six until Jose, nine days between Katia and Lee, and then no new storms in the last 13 days of September--even big years like 1995, 96, and 2010 had weaker storms between. Yet everything that formed took off like there was no tomorrow.

[LarryWx]

October is not the most threatening month to the Florida peninsula. That honor goes to September. What October does show IRT Florida is the most likely general climo storm track from the SW out of the Caribbean through the peninsula. N Central GOM still in play (ala Michael) but climo prefers a GENERAL track just like Wilma made in 2005.

A little known fact from a climatological perspective is that October is the month more tropical cyclones have hit South Florida than any other month even more than September. September holds the crown for the month with the most majors that have hit.

First thing you want wanna consider is removing that invisible barrier we have around us. Can we get any more lucky?

Be careful about what you say about the “invisible barrier”. ENSO based analogs I’ve recently seen look downright scary for a better than even chance for a CONUS major H landfall (with a small chance for two) at some point between 10/2 and 10/20 from something previously in the Caribbean with the state at greatest risk being FL. It isn’t often that one can say something this ominous about any short period like 19 days, but I’m saying it for this season based on these analogs.

[toad strangler]

It's going to take two more Hurricane CONUS landfalls to TIE the all time post 1850 record of 6 set in 1886 and 1985.

[SFLcane]

A little known fact from a climatological perspective is that October is the month more tropical cyclones have hit South Florida than any other month even more than September. September holds the crown for the month with the most majors that have hit.

First thing you want wanna consider is removing that invisible barrier we have around us. Can we get any more lucky?

Be careful about what you say about the “invisible barrier”. ENSO based analogs I’ve recently seen look downright scary for a better than even chance for a CONUS major H landfall (with a small chance for two) at some point between 10/2 and 10/20 from something previously in the Caribbean with the state at greatest risk being FL. It isn’t often that one can say something this ominous about any short period like 19 days, but I’m saying it for this season based on these analogs.

Hi Larry, can you post these analogs. I would surely be interested in viewing. Thanks

[LarryWx]

It's going to take two more Hurricane CONUS landfalls to TIE the all time post 1850 record of 6 set in 1886 and 1985.

I guess there’s a debate about whether 1886 had 6 or 7. My guess is that that’s based on whether or not the H hitting far S TX actually landfalled in far S TX as opposed to only in far N MX. It is very close either way. One source I read is that the landfall actually was between Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Including that would make it 7 different storms landfalling on the CONUS as a H.

The highest since 1985 is the 5 of 2004 and 2005. I expect that to at least be tied with a pretty decent shot of 6 being reached with even 7 not out of the realm of reasonable possibilities (though I think 6 is more likely).

[LarryWx]

First thing you want wanna consider is removing that invisible barrier we have around us. Can we get any more lucky?

Be careful about what you say about the “invisible barrier”. ENSO based analogs I’ve recently seen look downright scary for a better than even chance for a CONUS major H landfall (with a small chance for two) at some point between 10/2 and 10/20 from something previously in the Caribbean with the state at greatest risk being FL. It isn’t often that one can say something this ominous about any short period like 19 days, but I’m saying it for this season based on these analogs.

Hi Larry, can you post these analogs. I would surely be interested in viewing. Thanks

I’ll try ASAP when I have time to type it out.

[SFLcane]

With a -ENSO and a warm Caribbean yeah there's definitely a good shot at some Caribbean stuff. I definitely agree with the general idea of enhanced Caribbean and South Florida risk relative to average.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1306983411723235333

[ElectricStorm]

We now have set the record for most named storms in September with 9... And we are in the Greeks... With a storm about to landfall in Portugal of all places... And we're still at Sept. 18