2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Steve]

It's going to take two more Hurricane CONUS landfalls to TIE the all time post 1850 record of 6 set in 1886 and 1985.

Yeah, and for the record someone pointed out a few weeks ago that the record total named storm CONUS landfalls was 9 in 1963. We're awfully close to tying or setting a new record.

[aspen]

Today has really tested our sanity with Wilfred and Alpha being named before October, Alpha making landfall as a 45 kt TC in Portugal, and TD22 soon to become Beta.

[SFLcane]

Yikes!

 https://twitter.com/thestevecop/status/1307015855738322948

[WeatherEmperor]

So what is it now, 9 or 10 named storms formes in September??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

Incoming CCKW+La Nina+ super warm ssts= Potentially very busy October.

[TheStormExpert]

Will we continue to dodge bullets?

 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1307010902340763648

[TheStormExpert]

So what is it now, 9 or 10 named storms formes in September??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

10 I believe once TD #22 gets named.

[supercane4867]

The most surreal scene of 2020(so far) is two TC/STCs making landfalls in Europe back-to-back.

[shiny-pebble]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1307044454105219072

[LarryWx]

First thing you want wanna consider is removing that invisible barrier we have around us. Can we get any more lucky?

Be careful about what you say about the “invisible barrier”. ENSO based analogs I’ve recently seen look downright scary for a better than even chance for a CONUS major H landfall (with a small chance for two) at some point between 10/2 and 10/20 from something previously in the Caribbean with the state at greatest risk being FL. It isn’t often that one can say something this ominous about any short period like 19 days, but I’m saying it for this season based on these analogs.

Hi Larry, can you post these analogs. I would surely be interested in viewing. Thanks

I looked at the storms that were in the Caribbean at some point and that had originated 9/21+ for analog seasons back to 1865 that were-1) during weak to moderate La Nina as of Sep and 2) that were weak to moderate El Nino the previous fall/winter

That gives me these ten: 1869, 1886, 1906, 1924, 1942, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1995, and 2007

1. 1869: storm 10 (aka "Saxby Gale") identified first as already a cat 2 just N of the Bahamas late 10/3 moving rapidly NNE; therefore can assume it likely originated in the Caribbean very late Sep as there was a TS there on 10/1; this hit the NE US as a cat 2 on 10/4

2. 1886: storm 10 (aka "TX/LA H of 1886") formed 10/7 in Caribbean and hit TX/LA border as a cat 3 on 10/12

3. 1906: storm 8 (aka "FL Keys and Miami H of 1906") formed 10/8 in Caribbean and hit S FL as a cat 3 on 10/18

4. 1924: storm 10 (aka "Cuba H of 1924") formed 10/13 in Caribbean, hit Cuba as a cat 5, and hit S FL as a cat 1 on 10/20

5. 1942: none

6. 1954: Hazel formed 10/5 E of the Lesser Antilles, went into the Caribbean, and hit SC/NC border as a cat 4 on 10/15

7. 1964: a) Hilda formed 9/28 in Caribbean, became a cat 4, and hit LA as a cat 2 on 10/3

b) Isbell formed 10/8 and hit S FL as a cat 3 on 10/14

8. 1970: none

9. 1995: Opal formed 9/27, became a cat 4, and hit FL Panhandle as a cat 3 on 10/4

10. 2007: none
----------------------------------------
So, in summary:

- a whopping 8 CONUS H hits from storms that were previously in the Caribbean during 7 of the 10 analog seasons! Of these 8, 5 were majors. So, out of 10 seasons, half had a major H hit on CONUS.

- genesis date range: 9/27-10/13

- CONUS landfall date range 10/3-20 with these dates: 10/3, 10/4, 10/4, 10/12, 10/14, 10/15, 10/18. 10/20

- Landfall locations: S FL 3; N Gulf coast: 3; SC/NC: 1; NE US: 1


** Conclusion based on ENSO analogs and when also considering how warm and untouched the Caribbean is:

Likely (above average chance) CONUS H (quite possibly major) landfall 10/3-20 with highest chance S FL or N Gulf coast. The most concerning geneses would be in or just east of the Caribbean during 9/27-10/13.

[Spacecoast]

3. 1906: storm 8 (aka "FL Keys and Miami H of 1906") formed 10/8 in Caribbean and hit S FL as a cat 3 on 10/18

** Conclusion based on ENSO analogs and when also considering how warm and untouched the Caribbean is:

Likely (above average chance) CONUS H (quite possibly major) landfall 10/3-20 with highest chance S FL or N Gulf coast. The most concerning geneses would be in or just east of the Caribbean during 9/27-10/13.

1906 Storm: Takes a loop , then hits FL again (Jville) from the NE.



Tracks from all years show a major October highway from S Yucatan through SFL.

[FireRat]

How 'bout that, first time we ever get to use the Greek Alphabet during Peak Season!!

Just Madness

[SFLcane]

Be careful about what you say about the “invisible barrier”. ENSO based analogs I’ve recently seen look downright scary for a better than even chance for a CONUS major H landfall (with a small chance for two) at some point between 10/2 and 10/20 from something previously in the Caribbean with the state at greatest risk being FL. It isn’t often that one can say something this ominous about any short period like 19 days, but I’m saying it for this season based on these analogs.

Hi Larry, can you post these analogs. I would surely be interested in viewing. Thanks

I looked at the storms that were in the Caribbean at some point and that had originated 9/21+ for analog seasons back to 1865 that were-1) during weak to moderate La Nina as of Sep and 2) that were weak to moderate El Nino the previous fall/winter

That gives me these ten: 1869, 1886, 1906, 1924, 1942, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1995, and 2007

1. 1869: storm 10 (aka "Saxby Gale") identified first as already a cat 2 just N of the Bahamas late 10/3 moving rapidly NNE; therefore can assume it likely originated in the Caribbean very late Sep as there was a TS there on 10/1; this hit the NE US as a cat 2 on 10/4

2. 1886: storm 10 (aka "TX/LA H of 1886") formed 10/7 in Caribbean and hit TX/LA border as a cat 3 on 10/12

3. 1906: storm 8 (aka "FL Keys and Miami H of 1906") formed 10/8 in Caribbean and hit S FL as a cat 3 on 10/18

4. 1924: storm 10 (aka "Cuba H of 1924") formed 10/13 in Caribbean, hit Cuba as a cat 5, and hit S FL as a cat 1 on 10/20

5. 1942: none

6. 1954: Hazel formed 10/5 E of the Lesser Antilles, went into the Caribbean, and hit SC/NC border as a cat 4 on 10/15

7. 1964: a) Hilda formed 9/28 in Caribbean, became a cat 4, and hit LA as a cat 2 on 10/3

b) Isbell formed 10/8 and hit S FL as a cat 3 on 10/14

8. 1970: none

9. 1995: Opal formed 9/27, became a cat 4, and hit FL Panhandle as a cat 3 on 10/4

10. 2007: none
----------------------------------------
So, in summary:

- a whopping 8 CONUS H hits from storms that were previously in the Caribbean during 7 of the 10 analog seasons! Of these 8, 5 were majors. So, out of 10 seasons, half had a major H hit on CONUS.

- genesis date range: 9/27-10/13

- CONUS landfall date range 10/3-20 with these dates: 10/3, 10/4, 10/4, 10/12, 10/14, 10/15, 10/18. 10/20

- Landfall locations: S FL 3; N Gulf coast: 3; SC/NC: 1; NE US: 1


** Conclusion based on ENSO analogs and when also considering how warm and untouched the Caribbean is:

Likely (above average chance) CONUS H (quite possibly major) landfall 10/3-20 with highest chance S FL or N Gulf coast. The most concerning geneses would be in or just east of the Caribbean during 9/27-10/13.

Thanks for this...we shall see and look back at this post. No coherent signal for now

[Deshaunrob17]

Yeah. It’s some historic level of activity that many or possibly all of us may never see again. I don’t even know how many more storms we are going to have. Dr Ventrice’s site shows MJO at least neutral moving back to the basin after 9/25. We aren’t in all that favorable of a Phase now (4 also brought us Isaias). But when that last strong pulse moved across the ocean it set up the conditions for this current 6-7 storm burst. I doubt we will see as strong a signal as we did a few weeks back, so maybe we don’t get over 10 more named storms. But I think there’s a good chance we will get past Zeta (eta, theta, iota follow) which we saw in 2005 (unnamed added later). But I kind of doubt we will end up with 15 hurricanes and 7 majors (4 5’s I think too). If not, this would point to 2005 as being a more brutal season with 2020 in the all time conversation.

Yeah 2005 for sure was more brutal, but I think one could make argument that if some those MDR systems had track more south and even cruiser through the Caribbean , we probably would have had 2 more majors. Paulette for sure would have been a major if it had taken a Southern route....

I’m nervous for October... That’s all I’m saying
I predicted 21-26 storms, 9-12 hurricanes and 4-6 major hurricanes back in early August .... I now think we’ll have 28-33 storms, 10- 14 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes

[Deshaunrob17]

Paulette got ahold of some of that smoke from the California wildfires, hence probably why it failed to become a major hurricane. I mean for there nearly being twenty-one storms two majors isn’t too impressive and a weird ratio.

In my opinion this season is a little bit like 2012 on steroids.

Yeah if the season keeps this up 2012 would work. But I could also see this being a 2016 on steroids. 2016 was similar to this year in the fact most of the storms were on the weaker side but then it finished with 3 consecutive majors including a cat 5. I could see us getting some October monsters down there in the Caribbean. And I also don't trust TD 22 one bit. With the way things have been this year in the gulf, and the amount of time this thing is going to have, I could see it attempt a run a major at some point in its life.

I remember many were expecting an epic October 2017 and all we got was Cat.1 Nate, Cat.3 Ophelia in the NE Subtropical Atlantic, and punny Philippe which barely even lasted a day. Not saying that this will be the same but high expectations were set in October 2017 due to the La Niña and only 3/2/1 formed the whole month.

True and high expectations were also set for last year October... We’ll see, but most La Niña do give way to late season surprises

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah if the season keeps this up 2012 would work. But I could also see this being a 2016 on steroids. 2016 was similar to this year in the fact most of the storms were on the weaker side but then it finished with 3 consecutive majors including a cat 5. I could see us getting some October monsters down there in the Caribbean. And I also don't trust TD 22 one bit. With the way things have been this year in the gulf, and the amount of time this thing is going to have, I could see it attempt a run a major at some point in its life.

I remember many were expecting an epic October 2017 and all we got was Cat.1 Nate, Cat.3 Ophelia in the NE Subtropical Atlantic, and punny Philippe which barely even lasted a day. Not saying that this will be the same but high expectations were set in October 2017 due to the La Niña and only 3/2/1 formed the whole month.

True and high expectations were also set for last year October... We’ll see, but most La Niña do give way to late season surprises

October 2017 did have Nate, who would have been stronger if he didn't move so freaking fast. I could definitely see a stronger version of Nate happening this year

[TheStormExpert]

I remember many were expecting an epic October 2017 and all we got was Cat.1 Nate, Cat.3 Ophelia in the NE Subtropical Atlantic, and punny Philippe which barely even lasted a day. Not saying that this will be the same but high expectations were set in October 2017 due to the La Niña and only 3/2/1 formed the whole month.

True and high expectations were also set for last year October... We’ll see, but most La Niña do give way to late season surprises

October 2017 did have Nate, who would have been stronger if he didn't move so freaking fast. I could definitely see a stronger version of Nate happening this year

I could see a stronger version of Irene 1999 especially when it comes to track.

[ElectricStorm]

True and high expectations were also set for last year October... We’ll see, but most La Niña do give way to late season surprises

October 2017 did have Nate, who would have been stronger if he didn't move so freaking fast. I could definitely see a stronger version of Nate happening this year

I could see a stronger version of Irene 1999 especially when it comes to track.

Yeah I didn't get to track that storm as I, uh, wasn't around yet

[TheStormExpert]

October 2017 did have Nate, who would have been stronger if he didn't move so freaking fast. I could definitely see a stronger version of Nate happening this year

I could see a stronger version of Irene 1999 especially when it comes to track.

Yeah I didn't get to track that storm as I, uh, wasn't around yet

It struck South Florida on my 6th birthday.

Of course I wasn't in town for it, so the first hurricane I ever got to experience was Frances in 2004.

[ElectricStorm]

I could see a stronger version of Irene 1999 especially when it comes to track.

Yeah I didn't get to track that storm as I, uh, wasn't around yet

It struck South Florida on my 6th birthday.

Of course I wasn't in town for it, so the first hurricane I ever got to experience was Frances in 2004.

I have also never experienced a hurricane. But I did get hit by tropical depression Bill in 2015... oh and Erin in 2007 but I was 6 so I don't remember that one... Our ice storm was the big story that year and I do remember that one...