Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Shear is oliberating it.

[Gustywind]

Yeah the shear will finish this wave off for a little while but still its an interesting little salvo shot from Africa!

Yeah Kwt agree; but for the momen it's a healthy wave with a lot convection nice enveloppe very moist, so let's enjoy it, and as a famous song of Pete C Rodriguez " i'd like it like that"
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 101959
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST TUE JUN 10 2008

A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...ABOUT 500
MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY...PRODUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagguy.jpg
Convection is popping in spite of the Olympics Shear Games inhibiting the wave in:roll:

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 110006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A MOISTURE SURGE. AT THE CURRENT SPEED THE WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE
LESSER ANTILLES WED EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 50W-55W.
THE E CARIBBEAN IS SHOWER FREE THIS EVENING BUT IS UNDER DENSE HIGH CLOUDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE
WED/EARLY THU.
Tkanks to mister shear , the shear seems preventing any developpement of this nice wave...20 to 40 kts of shear from west

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Here is the high values of shear doting the area ahead the wave

[cycloneye]

[GCANE]

Shear below 10N isn't all that bad; and that is exactly where convection keeps firing.

This will persist for the next couple days as it skirts the Venezuela coast. After that it is hard to tell since the models don't agree on their shear forecasts.

[Gustywind]

The shear is killing the wave, seems swept right now with untrained eyes or my head is deceiving me?
30 to 50 kts of shear from west is sweeping the wave... awesome
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Poor appareance...convection has been spared quickly tonight due to the shear!
Whereas very interresting thing... while shear is strong , SAL is very weak http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg :

000
AXNT20 KNHC 110604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A MOISTURE SURGE. AT THE CURRENT SPEED THE WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE
LESSER ANTILLES WED EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
49W-52W.
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 110916
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST WED JUN 11 2008
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...PRODUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

[wxman57]

By the way, the tiny swirl near 9N/57E was just classified as 91L. It's about 60 miles across. Didn't even catch my eye looking at the much larger mass of storms to the east. Should move inland into South America soon. Strong wind shear in its path, too.

[Ed Mahmoud]

By the way, the tiny swirl near 9N/57E was just classified as 91L. It's about 60 miles across. Didn't even catch my eye looking at the much larger mass of storms to the east. Should move inland into South America soon. Strong wind shear in its path, too.

Whooo-Hoooo, an unlikely to develop Invest!

[Ed Mahmoud]

The thread title is plural, so one wave becoming an invest won't lock a thread that could otherwise live until December, right?

[gatorcane]

there seems to be a possible broad mid-level rotation in the wave behind 91L in the Central Atlantic......does anybody also see it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

Its not a bad looking area of convection is it associated with a tropical wave?
Looks like the convection is weakening a little now though.

[Recurve]

Another wave to be added at 45W S of 12N, and a wave along 57W having a defined tiny surface low, but development not expected.

[cycloneye]

975
AXNT20 KNHC 112350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
SSMI-DERIVED TPW THAT SHOWS A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN
THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS MODEL 850 MB LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY
ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-11N WITH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK
1011 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 58W-61W. THIS SYSTEM
SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE UW-CIMMS TPW PRODUCT WHERE A HIGH
AMPLITUDE NWD BULGE OF MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS CLEARLY DEFINED AGAINST SURFACE
DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBS WITHIN THE AREA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS SURFACE LOW WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THU. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS E VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 4N30W 6N45W 7N49W 9N56W.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS GETTING
READY TO EMERGE FROM AFRICA. SURFACE WIND DATA ACROSS W AFRICA
SHOWS POSSIBLE WAVE IS E OF DAKAR SENEGAL. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 13W-17W. . ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 18W-33W. ALL OTHER CONVECTION IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
TROPICAL WAVES...SEE ABOVE.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Tampa_God]

^^^ And that wave does have rotation with it aswell.

[gatorcane]

Very nice wave coming off Africa. This one is the farthest north wave we have seen emerge this year and is at the critical 10N lattitude for cyclogenesis. But expect it to go poof in the next 24 hours because SSTs and ULL winds are not favorable for development.

[boca]

Actually it looks pretty good its the best looking wave this year for the Leeward and Windward Islands. This will be probably be Florida's rain maker by early next week,although the model now aren't as deep with the trough as in earlier runs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Opps sorry I meant to post this in the active storm section.

[Gustywind]

Actually it looks pretty good its the best looking wave this year for the Leeward and Windward Islands. This will be probably be Florida's rain maker by early next week,although the model now aren't as deep with the trough as in earlier runs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Opps sorry I meant to post this in the active storm section.

LOOL , no problem Boca you're right it's the best looking wave i have every seen on the east carib, i'm very glad to see already healthy waves with a persistence trend , and this one is m aybe the best defined crossing the Leewards islands, i enjoy it. For the moment, it's pretty interresting to see what happens.

[cycloneye]

A new kid in the block!


000
AXNT20 KNHC 121802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS/SURFACE MAP
ALONG 18W S OF 18N BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC DATA.
IN ADDITION...THE SSMI-DERIVED TPW SHOWS A SURGE OF MOISTURE
PROTRUDING NORTHWARD IN THIS AREA...AND THE DAKAR VERTICAL
SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE
AXIS WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SE WINDS AT LOW LEVELS.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
8N-12N WEST OF 20W TO THE AFRICAN COAST.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=