Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

[Aric Dunn]

as for the comment about it being dry out there.. that is hardly the case the system is within a large moisture envelope.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a continually updating loop of the 12z GFS run...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[canegrl04]

Wow Looks like we will see Cristobol AND Dolly this month.With the patttern the way it is,by August we could see some hurricanes headed for Florida,maybe in the GOM and the Carolinas

[jlauderdal]

Wow Looks like we will see Cristobol AND Dolly this month.With the patttern the way it is,by August we could see some hurricanes headed for Florida,maybe in the GOM and the Carolinas

based on climatology i bet there will be some hurricanes in august, where they actually go is anyones guessat this point

[HurricaneHunter914]

Whoa, hold your horses my friend. We aren't completely sure these will become Cristobal and Dolly. But they do look good for this time of year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Based on what I am seeing from the latest GFS run, it appears like this system will slowly start to get its act together over the next 3 days before finally starting to really deepen in 4-5 days once it gets closer to 50W...

24 hrs from now = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024s.gif

48 hrs from now = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048s.gif

72 hrs from now = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072s.gif

96 hrs from now = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096s.gif

120 hrs from now = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120s.gif

Then, by day 6 and 7, the GFS has the system as a well-developed tropical cyclone near the islands...

144 hrs from now = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144s.gif

168 hrs from now = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168s.gif

[Frank2]

Still, as mentioned in the "Emily" topic yesterday, it seems that meandering Bertha might play a very important role in the strength of the subtropical ridge:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

among us, who would have guessed one week ago today that we'd now have a stationary hurricane in the western Atlantic?

[sounds of crickets chirping]

[hurricanetrack]

It will have to be a slowly developing system, because, geez, there's nothing out there convection wise right now:

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Sto ... est_lc.jpg

But- the longer it takes, the more west it will track, Bertha or no Bertha.

[cycloneye]

Mark,you are right.Nothing like when Bertha came off Africa and following that it formed into a TD.If I would bet it is the 35w area that shows some rotation.However,as you said,no development rapidly,more west it goes and then be a problem for someone.

[PTrackerLA]

35W will be the area to watch: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Interesting that the GFS recurves this one after the islands, the high looks pretty strong at that point but I assume it's picking up on a weakness left by Bertha.

[Stratosphere747]

35 looks to be the favorite but the 12z GFS takes the 45 area and its energy through the Caribbean, clipping Cuba and into the GOM towards La.

Gotta love the long range stuff!

[cycloneye]

Well,I know that many are not fans of the Canadian model,but anyway here is the 12z animation.It shows a small system entering the Eastern Caribbean.Also look what it does with Bertha.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[CourierPR]

That area of "nothing" at 45W appears to be organizing.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121758
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.




TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 44W.
No more changes but always there in good shape....

[Blown Away]

[/quote]

Got to be getting close to an invest near 12N/48W.

[Derek Ortt]

I see no organization at all with the area near 48W

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS shows a weak low latitud low that dissapears but later appears again at the end of run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

12z EURO shows a weak low at the start of run but it vanishes at the second half of run.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8071212!!/

[tailgater]

I see no organization at all with the area near 48W

Well maybe a little but mostly ITCZ.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?496,233

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see no organization at all with the area near 48W

Although it (the one near 50ºW) has more convection, its companion to the East is the one that seems to have some kind of rotation.

And while a little light on the shower activity, satellite shows an uptick in showers near the apparent center in the last hour.