Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[vacanechaser]

added a floater at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

note... it is labeled as invest_08... the 8th system I have placed a floater on this season. Even hough I am not high on development, I am interested in archiving these images in the event that it does not development to compare with developing systems

enlighten us.. what are you seeing that makes you think low possibility o development??? what are you seeing that may suggest that??


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[AtlanticWind]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes


Take a look at what following this area !

[HURAKAN]

I can't see it.

[Mecklenburg]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes


Take a look at what following this area !

there's nothing here... no image...

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Sto ... est_ir.jpg


Try this one

[Mecklenburg]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/Atlantic/latest_ir.jpg


Try this one

very impressive

[Andrew92]

Not a bad little system I have to say. (and sorry I've been so inactive the last week or so!) As always, an LLC is needed, and persistence is another big key.

I will not predict this wave to develop at this time, with a caution that I still believe there is a 30% chance of development in a few days. I know that sounds inconsistent, so here is my explanation: Lots of waves have looked like this and look like they're on their way to development in the past. A fair amount end up developing, but still many fizzle out. And the ones that do develop often do still take at least 2-3 days to get going, sometimes a little longer.

Wait and watch.

-Andrew92

[Derek Ortt]

I'd like to see more model consistency for this wave before jumping on the development bandwagon

The just emerging wave is developed by nearly all of the guidance.

[cycloneye]

Convection consolidating:

[vacanechaser]

I'd like to see more model consistency for this wave before jumping on the development bandwagon

The just emerging wave is developed by nearly all of the guidance.

thanx for the explanation



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Mecklenburg]

Convection consolidating:

impressive outburst, it could be an invest soon enough

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, that's the best this wave has looked since it's emerged off Africa!!!

[jhamps10]

TWO upgrades to orange on both this and the system at 40w...
2. A SECOND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like things are really about to get going in the atlantic.

[KWT]

Still lots of convection even if some of that maybe ITCZ related, still theres certainly enough here to merit needing close attention IMO.

[Meso]

Latest runs are for a strong hurricane

gfs 00z 120 hours

120 hour image

GFS @ 156 hours



GFS @ 264 hours


I think that's the right wave that it's developing, since it shows the low at around 30W in 10hours.Which is closer than the wave emerging off Africa, though it still shows the wave over Africa developing a little.


EURO



CMC


Long Range CMC

Storm off the East coast, as well as another storm about to enter the gulf

Ukmet


This storm is the one around 70W there

[alan1961]

The wave at 30-35W is the one that has the best chance of development IMO, the one in front of this at 40-45W is paving the way through some dry air in front of it, as of now 40-45W wave needs an LLC as one or two posters have previously said, if it can aquire that and detach itself from the ITCZ it ''COULD'' be on its way to bigger things, but we have all witnessed the ''fizzle and poof'' show many times so lets wait and see, model support is one thing, getting its act together is another, time will tell as per usual, so lets enjoy (or not if your going to be in the threat zone) possible development of one of mother natures spectacles.

[Nimbus]

The model consensus develops the wave near 30W rather than the wave wave passing 40w.
A strong mid atlantic ridge building west would provide a favorable environment for development and put the islands and CONUS at risk.

At the 144 hour range we need to start giving some weight to the model support.

This morning I see a little more convection near 42W which will at the very least provide more moisture for the second system.

If both systems were to develop I think you might see the first system close to the South American coast and a second stronger system getting kicked north of PR.

I don't like the strong Bermuda ridging at the end of the runs but that time frame may still border on fantasy land.

[cycloneye]

When you see a pic like this,you say wow.



http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/goes/RTAP/

[Mecklenburg]

when can this become an invest? looks impressive enough