2010 ACE: Atlantic=159.8625 / EPAC=48.44 / WPAC=118.6700

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Atlantic Ace Update at 0900z

Code: Select all

17L.Otto
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 6 October 5 am EDT 30 Sub-Trop
2 6 October 11 am EDT 30 Sub-Trop
3 6 October 5 pm EDT 50 Sub-Trop
4 6 October 11 pm EDT 55 Sub-Trop
5 7 October 5 am EDT 50 Sub-Trop
6 7 October 11 am EDT 50 0.2500
7 7 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
8 9 October 11 pm EDT 50 0.2500
9 10 October 5 am EDT 60 0.3600
10 10 October 11 am EDT 65 0.4225
11 10 October 5 pm EDT 70 0.4900
12 10 October 11 pm EDT 75 0.5625
13 11 October 5 am EDT 75 0.5625
14 11 October 11 am EDT 65 0.4225
15 11 October 5 pm EDT 65 0.4225
16 11 October 11 pm EDT 60 0.3600
17 12 October 5 am EDT 55 0.3025
Total       4.655

[edit] Best Track
[edit] Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
Total  135.9425


[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE Update at 2100z

Paula starts to rack up units.

Code: Select all

18L.Paula
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 11 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
Total       0.25

[edit] Best Track
[edit] Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 0.2500
Total  136.1925


[HURAKAN]

I'm gunna guess Otto gives us 5 more units of ACE putting us near 138. Would still need around 2 more hurricanes I'd say to put as at hyperactive status. Will be a close call.

If we get the typical slow moving hurricane in the WCAR, we should get easily to the hyperactive level

I suppose. It depends how strong that hurricane would get. If it stays a minimal hurricane, we would need around four days of hurricane strength to get close to hyperactive status. Would have to be a very slow mover with that forecasted shear belt to the north. Unless it becomes a major, making hyperactive status much more attainable.

Will Paula be this storm? Lets see

[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE Update at 0300z

Code: Select all

18L.Paula
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 11 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
2 11 October 11 pm EDT 60 0.3600
Total       0.61

[edit] Best Track
[edit] Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 0.6100
Total  136.5525


[hurricaneCW]

We could possibly reach the hyperactive threshold with Paula if she intensifies like expected or even more so. If she gets up to a major, then we're pretty much guaranteed to cross over into the hyperactive season.

It's amazing how quiet the other basins were, the Atlantic is doing all the work this season.

[dwsqos2]

I'm going to make a somewhat educated guess that Paula does not manage to bring the season over the threshold of hyperactivity. Really, conditions look rather blah for it in the not terribly distant future.

[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE Update at 1500z

Paula

Code: Select all

18L.Paula
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 11 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
2 11 October 11 pm EDT 60 0.3600
3 12 October 5 am EDT 65 0.4225
4 12 October 11 am EDT 65 0.4225
Total       1.455


Season total

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.9550
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 1.4550
Total  137.4075


[dwsqos2]

Honestly, if the 12Z gfs upper-level wind progs verify, Paula may struggle to produce much over five units of ACE.

[KWT]

Its going to be a tough call, the chances are Paula may just fall a touch short but it all depends on how quickly it weakens and whether the models have a good grip on the shear levels.

I'd suspect we will probably get another 1-2NS from this season before its all done however and that combined with Paula will be more then enough to get the job done.

WPAC should once again get going soon looking at what the models are progging...

[dwsqos2]

Well, I just saw the rather robust winds (>90 knots flight-level, and >90 knots SFMR) observed on the latest pass. Breaking probably won't be an issue, but Paula alone likely will not push the season into hyperactive territory.

I agree about additional storms likely pushing the season into the hyperactive range.

[cycloneye]

After looking pathetic,Paula really has gone in a RI phase and what appeared as not reaching the hyperactive line,it can make a run for it now. Only needs 12 and a half units to reach the 150 hyperactive line.

[dwsqos2]

The problem is that it will in the not too distant future encounter some pretty hostile conditions (decently strong SW flow aloft depending upon its position and dry air intrusions). Also, it is very small which will likely enhance the rate of weakening. So, it won't be terribly long-lived, and in my totally unofficial opinion the NHC intensity forecast has a chance of being too high in the longer term. Thus, I don't think that Paula, despite its intensification, will push 2010 into the hyperactive ACE range.

[Weatherfreak000]

^^
Would you be so bold as to claim the 2010 Hurricane Season STILL won't be hyperactive dwsqos2?

[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE Update at 2100z

Paula

Code: Select all

18L.Paula
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 11 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
2 11 October 11 pm EDT 60 0.3600
3 12 October 5 am EDT 65 0.4225
4 12 October 10 am CDT 65 0.4225
5 12 October 12:45 pm CDT 85 Special
6 12 October 4 pm CDT 85 0.7225
Total       2.1775


Season Total

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Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.9550
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 2.1775
Total  138.13


[drezee]

If you go purely by the 1700EST forecast...then you get to 145...

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
That forecast has the potential to bust, in which case we could be hyperactive very soon. 16 named storms wow...and it's still not over..

[dwsqos2]

^^
Would you be so bold as to claim the 2010 Hurricane Season STILL won't be hyperactive dwsqos2?

No, I stated previously that additional storms will likely bring the 2010 season up and over the hyperactive threshold.

[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE Update at 0900z

Paula

Code: Select all

18L.Paula
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 11 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
2 11 October 11 pm EDT 60 0.3600
3 12 October 5 am EDT 65 0.4225
4 12 October 10 am CDT 65 0.4225
5 12 October 12:45 pm CDT 85 Special
6 12 October 4 pm CDT 85 0.7225
7 12 October 10 pm CDT 85 0.7225
8 13 October 4 am CDT 85 0.7225
Total       3.6225


Season Total

Code: Select all

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.9550
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 3.6225
Total  139.575


[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE Update at 1500z

Paula

Code: Select all

18L.Paula
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 11 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
2 11 October 11 pm EDT 60 0.3600
3 12 October 5 am EDT 65 0.4225
4 12 October 10 am CDT 65 0.4225
5 12 October 12:45 pm CDT 85 Special
6 12 October 4 pm CDT 85 0.7225
7 12 October 10 pm CDT 85 0.7225
8 13 October 4 am CDT 85 0.7225
9 13 October 10 am CDT 85 0.7225
Total       4.345


Season Total

Code: Select all

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.9550
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 4.3450
Total  140.2975


Who has the WPAC updated numbers as TS Megi is beggining to add units?