2013 WPAC Season

[dexterlabio]

Well, the STR might push it south of the track [which has more favorable conditions] and is a good place [North Visayas has strong shear but South Visayas has weaker shear] but the sea surface temperatures over most of the West Pacific may be powering the storm[s].

Vertical wind shear and SST may be favorable, but dry air is another thing. If the next cyclone will follow the track of Bopha then it could avoid ingesting some cold dry air from the northeast monsoon.

And also, mid-latitude troughs can create a weakness in the STR which might lead any developing storms closer to the north. (and maybe recurve as well)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Well, the STR might push it south of the track [which has more favorable conditions] and is a good place [North Visayas has strong shear but South Visayas has weaker shear] but the sea surface temperatures over most of the West Pacific may be powering the storm[s].

Vertical wind shear and SST may be favorable, but dry air is another thing. If the next cyclone will follow the track of Bopha then it could avoid ingesting some cold dry air from the northeast monsoon.

And also, mid-latitude troughs can create a weakness in the STR which might lead any developing storms closer to the north. (and maybe recurve as well)

Maybe Typhoon Mike part 2 [sort of part 3 because of Haiyan] which caused devastation of Metro Cebu, Iloilo, Northern Mindanao and Negros Island?

It would be scary for us. If this happens, we don't want to see any severe damages and casualties anymore!

[dexterlabio]

If you look at the recent GFS model runs they kinda backed off...nothing organized and they seem to show a mid-latitude trough running through the STR and creating a weakness as well. For now it looks like the Philippines is safe according to the models

[euro6208]

12Z GFS has 3 cyclones all developing from the vast open waters south and southeast of guam. The strongest of them makes landfall over the philippines while another skirts guam.

Here's my thinking of what may happen...

This model will continue to show cyclogenesis when nothing is developing and continue to do so until next year

We will see...

[euro6208]

What an incredible end to this season if it were to end today with a 170 knot Super Typhoon striking the Philippines. Dvorak at 8.0 and ADT at 8.1 makes it the 3rd highest cyclone in the upper 8.0 in worldwide history plus the strongest cyclone landfall and strongest cyclone in recorded history.

Although some experts believe haiyan made landfall in Guiuan at 185 knot sustained, this season will be remembered for a long time....

Still we are deep within the typhoon season and anything can happen before our next season starts on January 1, 2014.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If you look at the recent GFS model runs they kinda backed off...nothing organized and they seem to show a mid-latitude trough running through the STR and creating a weakness as well. For now it looks like the Philippines is safe according to the models

Umm... They put it back as a strong typhoon over Central Samar...

[dexterlabio]

Umm... They put it back as a strong typhoon over Central Samar...

And backed off once more on 18z.............

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Umm... They put it back as a strong typhoon over Central Samar...

And backed off once more on 18z.............

Oh, and some storms form when put on and off. We don't want a storm be cause we have not yet recovered.

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Remember this? Haiyan was predicted to hit Central Quezon [near Lucena City] then towards Metro Manila DIRECTLY?

[dexterlabio]

Oh, and some storms form when put on and off. We don't want a storm be cause we have not yet recovered.

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Remember this? Haiyan was predicted to hit Central Quezon [near Lucena City] then towards Metro Manila DIRECTLY?

I really doubt there is something significant forming in the coming days if the models are being inconsistent. We might end up with a disorganized tropical wave but who knows. Haiyan's genesis was consistently shown by the GFS model, it wasn't on and off each model runs. The initial forecast tracks might not be accurate but the genesis prediction was spot on.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh, and some storms form when put on and off. We don't want a storm be cause we have not yet recovered.

---------------------------------------
Remember this? Haiyan was predicted to hit Central Quezon [near Lucena City] then towards Metro Manila DIRECTLY?

I really doubt there is something significant forming in the coming days if the models are being inconsistent. We might end up with a disorganized tropical wave but who knows. Haiyan's genesis was consistently shown by the GFS model, it wasn't on and off each model runs. The initial forecast tracks might not be accurate but the genesis prediction was spot on.

But what do you think? Where would it probably go?

GFS develops something by 384 hr. At least it's weak!

[euro6208]

06Z has backed down on developing multiple cyclones instead develops only one in the philippine sea(long range)...

The season is slowly winding down.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

06Z has backed down on developing multiple cyclones instead develops only one in the philippine sea(long range)...

The season is slowly winding down.

I don't think it could recurve due to the strong subtropical ridge over the north [over Luzon]. But that might change.

Wind shear and Sea surface temperatures are favorable, though the NE monsoon with dry are might make it weaker.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What is that area over 170E and below 10N?

[euro6208]

http://imageshack.com/a/img203/7971/3urg.gif

cyclonic rotation evident for wave near 150 and an increase in moisture across the wpac. Can't post loop, too heavy...

http://imageshack.com/a/img29/7016/7oal.gif

entering a much more favorable environment with lower shear and an anticyclone located just to the west.

http://imageshack.com/a/img15/5304/quw.gif

strong vorticity...

http://imageshack.com/a/img42/1878/05np.png

large area of low to moderate formation.

[euro6208]

12Z showing nothing significant

[dexterlabio]

^Neither is the 18z run. Haha let us all enjoy the cold Christmas breeze.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

http://imageshack.com/a/img203/7971/3urg.gif

cyclonic rotation evident for wave near 150 and an increase in moisture across the wpac. Can't post loop, too heavy...

http://imageshack.com/a/img29/7016/7oal.gif

entering a much more favorable environment with lower shear and an anticyclone located just to the west.

http://imageshack.com/a/img15/5304/quw.gif

strong vorticity...

http://imageshack.com/a/img42/1878/05np.png

large area of low to moderate formation.

Wonder why isn't this an invest yet. It should be soon..

A STRONG subtropical ridge pushes it towards the Philippines, and possibly towards Mindanao and Visayas. Conditions are favorable except for the dry air from the monsoon. Hope this does not end up very strong!

STEERING:



WIND SHEAR





It looks quite impressive on imagery.



Giving it at least 35-50% chance to develop.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WHY do i see a clockwise spinning storm over the CPAC? Aren't they supposed to move counterclockwise? Latitude is over 6N and Longitude at around 170W... weird, i don't know why!!

[dexterlabio]

I dare say whatever is to form within the next 2 weeks will be a tropical depression, at most....and that's already generous. While there is weak VWS and warm SST's, there is not enough instability and convergence near the area. Also, the killer dry air blowing from the north would hamper development. You can check your sources for convergence and vorticity graphics, for some reason the picture doesn't show when I post them.


There is a chance though for a TS like Wukong of last year. But I doubt if there will be something stronger. Conditions need to be more El Nino-like to support strong cyclones in WPAC at this time of year.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I dare say whatever is to form within the next 2 weeks will be a tropical depression, at most....and that's already generous. While there is weak VWS and warm SST's, there is not enough instability and convergence near the area. Also, the killer dry air blowing from the north would hamper development. You can check your sources for convergence and vorticity graphics, for some reason the picture doesn't show when I post them.


There is a chance though for a TS like Wukong of last year. But I doubt if there will be something stronger. Conditions need to be more El Nino-like to support strong cyclones in WPAC at this time of year.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree. It is probably also because of that strong storm over Japan and much of Korea which is enhancing the northeast monsoon. We have to wait till that storm moves away or dies.

Good news for Visayas!