2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[NDG]

One thing is the current pattern which could be close to 2004 as blp mentioned earlier but another thing are the SSTs & atmospheric conditions across the Caribbean and MDR which are nothing close to that of 2004.

[Andrew92]

It should also be pointed out, again, that 2004 was a Modoki event, meaning the warm anomalies were in the Central Pacific. The eastern part was actually slightly below normal.

If I'm understanding a Modoki El Nino correct, it actually doesn't make things more or less hostile than normal for the Atlantic, and quiets down the Eastern Pacific instead. This is for similar reasons that a traditional El Nino, like this year's event, makes conditions hostile in the Atlantic, I think. I believe as conditions grow favorable for convection and thunderstorms to grow in the Eastern Pacific, their strong winds create hostile conditions in the Atlantic. So when water is warmer than average in the Central Pacific and cooler than average in the Eastern Pacific, whereas conditions are favorable in the Central part, those storms make things unfavorable in the Eastern part. Is that correct?

The steering flow does look fairly similar to 2004 for now. However, this is a traditional El Nino, and 2004 likely would have been quieter with a traditional El Nino event.

-Andrew92

[TheStormExpert]

One thing is the current pattern which could be close to 2004 as blp mentioned earlier but another thing are the SSTs & atmospheric conditions across the Caribbean and MDR which are nothing close to that of 2004.

That's exactly what I've been trying to point out, that the MDR and Caribbean are very unfavorable when compared to what those two sub-basins were like in 2004 as a whole and around this time in the season.

[TheStormExpert]

Member blp made this post a few pages ago which shows the similarities to 2004. Actually the East Coast ridge is stronger in 2015 so far which in interesting. I am not saying we are going to see a 2004 repeat but it wouldn't surprise me if we get a cape verde long tracker this year that makes it quite far west. I think something that tracks into the area just north of the Caribbean islands is where to watch. Even in El Nino years you can get Cape Verde systems that develop. All it takes is one.

I definitely wouldn't rule out a chance of seeing a Gonzalo type storm in September or sometime around the peak, the track could very well be more problematic for the U.S. than what Gonzalo's track was. A track similar to that of Ike's back in 2008 is very possible taking it into the GoM.

[wxman57]

Wow! I just took a look at the surface and upper-level conditions across the Caribbean over the next week and I can't recall seeing such a hostile environment. Big SAL is racing across the Caribbean. Surface winds in the central to SW Caribbean predicted to be in the 30-40 kt range this weekend. Winds at 850mb nearing 55 kts in the SW Caribbean. Wind shear as high as 90 kts!

Saharan Air Layer:


200mb-850mb Wind Shear:


850mb Winds:

[WPBWeather]

But, lest we forget what can happen in the tropics.

[ninel conde]

may have to rename the forum to "Windshear2k.org"

[SFLcane]

Well the deep tropics and the Caribbean closed BUT take a look at the SW atlantic Bahamas region and gulf. Plenty of warm waters there with better conditions. Watch these 2 areas I would not be surprised to see a potent hurricane out there down the line this season.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

But, lest we forget what can happen in the tropics.

http://imageshack.com/a/img910/6957/dBgfz7.jpg

Wow now we're only having to look back 127 short years ago to try and prove a point but hey guess its something

[gatorcane]

Well the deep tropics and the Caribbean closed BUT take a look at the SW atlantic Bahamas region and gulf. Plenty of warm waters there with better conditions. Watch these 2 areas I would not be surprised to see a potent hurricane out there down the line this season.

Agreed. My feeling is that we will get a potent hurricane to develop in one or both of these areas despite El Nino. It may take all the way until end of August or even September for that but this is not a season to just write off because of El Nino and the below normal activity the experts are projecting. Just a feeling. Also steering appears much different this year so far over the Western Atlantic than we have seen in a long time. Something to pay close attention to.

[WPBWeather]

As long as we remember that Gonzales is no where near the Gulf, I'm okay with that...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not right on the gulf but close enough. Actually the track of that storm 127 years ago looks like it went right near or over Gonzales. But I like my odds this year so its nothing to be concerned about.

[Bocadude85]

1965 was a strong El Nino and we had hurricane Betsy hit Florida and Louisiana. So it has happened more recently then 1888.

[ronjon]

Umm...there's another one much more recent. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 during a moderate-to-strong El Nino that year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Umm...there's another one much more recent. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 during a moderate-to-strong El Nino that year.

That El Niño ended May 1992 August was actually cool neutral not even close to El Niño threshold. May 1991 till Q1 1992 was under a weak Niño which exploded to a strong event by December 1991

[gatorcane]

Here is another example from 1941 during an El Nino. In fact with the early indicators on steering that I am seeing and with favorable conditions in the SW Atlantic just north of the Caribbean, it wouldn't surprise me if we get something similar this year:

[Yellow Evan]

Umm...there's another one much more recent. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 during a moderate-to-strong El Nino that year.

1992 is not an El Nino.

[blp]

There are plenty of examples of Cat 3 or higher during El Nino years. The one thing you could say with some certainty is the numbers of named storms is usually low. Point is that their will be favorable pockets of low shear even this year. The difference this year is early on indicators show that anything forming close to land may get caught in a steering pattern favoring landfall versus out to sea.

[SFLcane]

Here is another example from 1941 during an El Nino. In fact with the early indicators on steering that I am seeing and with favorable conditions in the SW Atlantic just north of the Caribbean, it wouldn't surprise me if we get something similar this year:

That's the area to watch this season in my view.

[blp]

Here is another example from 1941 during an El Nino. In fact with the early indicators on steering that I am seeing and with favorable conditions in the SW Atlantic just north of the Caribbean, it wouldn't surprise me if we get something similar this year:

[]http://i.imgur.com/kmUTBzK.gif[/img]

That's the area to watch this season in my view.

Exactly, look at this SST anomoly map: