2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[TheStormExpert]

You know it’s funny because SAL was just at record low levels a few weeks ago, what happened!? At this point we likely won’t see anything until at the very least late July.

Do you remember when I bemoaned all the season cancel posts? How about ... what happened is forecasts more than a few weeks out are notoriously bad. Forecasts made on twitter are notoriously worse. I'm not sure I'll ever understand the expectations of an active June and July. It just doesn't happen that often and has no bearing on the remaining season.

I was just pointing out how SAL was just recently being at record low levels for the time of year, I'm fully aware that June and July are usually dead times in the Atlantic.

[tolakram]

You know it’s funny because SAL was just at record low levels a few weeks ago, what happened!? At this point we likely won’t see anything until at the very least late July.

Do you remember when I bemoaned all the season cancel posts? How about ... what happened is forecasts more than a few weeks out are notoriously bad. Forecasts made on twitter are notoriously worse. I'm not sure I'll ever understand the expectations of an active June and July. It just doesn't happen that often and has no bearing on the remaining season.

I was just pointing out how SAL was just recently being at record low levels for the time of year, I'm fully aware that June and July are usually dead times in the Atlantic.

Right, I understand, sorry to sound overly scoldy in that post. These flips happen quickly, regardless of 'record' activity. Maybe I'm just getting too old and grumpy but a lot of these records seem interesting but fairly meaningless to me. In this case it seems obvious that record low levels meant nothing as far as predicting the future of SAL this year.

[NotSparta]

You know it’s funny because SAL was just at record low levels a few weeks ago, what happened!? At this point we likely won’t see anything until at the very least late July.

Do you remember when I bemoaned all the season cancel posts? How about ... what happened is forecasts more than a few weeks out are notoriously bad. Forecasts made on twitter are notoriously worse. I'm not sure I'll ever understand the expectations of an active June and July. It just doesn't happen that often and has no bearing on the remaining season.

I was just pointing out how SAL was just recently being at record low levels for the time of year, I'm fully aware that June and July are usually dead times in the Atlantic.

Well, if we're looking at an above average season, you should be looking at an increase of SAL around this time

[AnnularCane]

Well, if we're looking at an above average season, you should be looking at an increase of SAL around this time

Why is that?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1141805090820493313

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1141805090820493313

Yup, interesting composite. But it's still not as clear cut as there are some major differences between key variables. 2003, 2005, 2016 were noticeably cooler at the subsurface compared to now and were destined to reach cool neutral or La Nina thresholds by ASO. 2004 was a true Modoki. Also 2004, 2005, 2016 had well defined +AMO's.

[NotSparta]

Well, if we're looking at an above average season, you should be looking at an increase of SAL around this time

Why is that?

The African monsoon trough climbs north enough that the northern side of tropical waves excites easterlies over the Sahara (this is why SAL typically increases by July), but if it is stronger than normal, the stronger waves lead to stronger easterlies than usual which kicks up more dust around peak SAL months. Stronger tropical waves typically mean more deep tropics TCs & activity. There was a paper published in 2017 about this but unfortunately I do not have the link

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1141816641900228614

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1141816641900228614

".....while Africa to e. MDR from about 10-20N were moister than normal" (say's Yaakov)

Really?? Is he talking about the same E. Atlantic that has a GIANT rock called Africa anchored on it's East border? Call me crazy but I swear it seems that nearly all the recent convection off the W. African coastline lately, has primarily been limited to points south of 10N. I (and possibly others too) have recently posted observations about just how suppressed the ITCZ has been out there lately. Unless i'm misunderstanding what he's trying to say, it seems to me that Yaakov is suggesting that we've been watching a parade of convective T.W.'s rolling off the African coast between 10N - 15N??

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1141816641900228614

".....while Africa to e. MDR from about 10-20N were moister than normal" (say's Yaakov)

Really?? Is he talking about the same E. Atlantic that has a GIANT rock called Africa anchored on it's East border? Call me crazy but I swear it seems that nearly all the recent convection off the W. African coastline lately, has primarily been limited to points south of 10N. I (and possibly others too) have recently posted observations about just how suppressed the ITCZ has been out there lately. Unless i'm misunderstanding what he's trying to say, it seems to me that Yaakov is suggesting that we've been watching a parade of convective T.W.'s rolling off the African coast between 10N - 15N??

If you look at PWATs it's extremely above normal in the 10°N-20°N, but since it's only June the TWs are still below 10°N

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1141816641900228614

".....while Africa to e. MDR from about 10-20N were moister than normal" (say's Yaakov)

Really?? Is he talking about the same E. Atlantic that has a GIANT rock called Africa anchored on it's East border? Call me crazy but I swear it seems that nearly all the recent convection off the W. African coastline lately, has primarily been limited to points south of 10N. I (and possibly others too) have recently posted observations about just how suppressed the ITCZ has been out there lately. Unless i'm misunderstanding what he's trying to say, it seems to me that Yaakov is suggesting that we've been watching a parade of convective T.W.'s rolling off the African coast between 10N - 15N??

If you look at PWATs it's extremely above normal in the 10°N-20°N, but since it's only June the TWs are still below 10°N

Perhaps. I guess we'll have to wait and see till late July or August to know that for sure.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1142034913509572608

[OuterBanker]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1142034913509572608

Thank God that those are isotherms not paths (had me for a moment).

Yes, it appears that this year will be more conductive further east than last.

But to me what is of interest is how they converge at around 50w and how far north in the sub-tropics the isotherms are after reaching 50 W (I assume they represent the areas that are conductive for tropical cyclones).

The way I read this is that once past 50 W all bets are off.

What I don’t know is if this is typical or a recent anomaly.

[NotSparta]

Nice thread about current SSTA pattern & what it could mean going into peak season

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1142595620252934144

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1142755423197548545

[SFLcane]

That is NOT the look of strengthening El Niño above.. Atlantic is a big wild card this season who knows what will take place 4-6 weeks from now. Just have to be ready for whatever comes.

[cycloneye]

For all the discussions about the factors in favor or not for the Atlantic is very simple=It only takes one

[NotSparta]

That is NOT the look of strengthening El Niño above.. Atlantic is a big wild card this season who knows what will take place 4-6 weeks from now. Just have to be ready for whatever comes.

El Niño looks like it may not be a big factor this season, the two wild cards are shear from the EPAC/CPAC given that basin's warm waters, and the identity of the AMO/AMM

[hurricanehunter69]

This is one of the more quieter years that I've ever seen. We're actually beating the EPAC by .4 units of ACE. Five weeks into it's season and the EPAC has 0 units of ACE. The WPAC only has 35 units of ACE! A very quiet season for all three basins thus far. However, the CAP " as they say " can be lifted at any time!

[NotSparta]

This is one of the more quieter years that I've ever seen. We're actually beating the EPAC by .4 units of ACE. Five weeks into it's season and the EPAC has 0 units of ACE. The WPAC only has 35 units of ACE! A very quiet season for all three basins thus far. However, the CAP " as they say " can be lifted at any time!

The WPAC is at near normal ACE actually, but it hasn't added any since February 28