Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[GCANE]

Manual Floater up on Tropical Tidbits

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Check those MCS's firing south of the AL coast.
The GOM is juiced!
IMHO, RI is a distinct possibility when the LL Vort hits the water.

[USTropics]

Convenction has died down with DMIN, but circulation is still evident on satellite loops:

[GCANE]

Anticyclone is very easily seen on WV imagery.
Very strong circulation.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[GCANE]

One point models never account for is convective debris from nearby storms feeding a TC.
Very likely afteroon thunderstorms from FL will feed this.

[USTropics]

00z GFS ensembles has a large cluster landfalling in TX:

[GCANE]

It looks GFS is completely missing the boat on current position of the 850mb vort.

[N2FSU]

It looks GFS is completely missing the boat on current position of the 850mb vort.

Which way GCANE? Looking at the loop USTropics posted, the circulation looks to be about due north of Tallahassee. Where is the GFS initializing it?

[Aric Dunn]

I guess i am not surprised on the continued shift west. The trough was being over done. Interesting

[northjaxpro]

I guess i am not surprised on the continued shift west. The trough was being over done. Interesting

It appears to be the case Aric.

[GCANE]

SREF appears to be handling the LL vort correctly.
Putting it in the water early tomorrow morning Panama City

[GCANE]

It looks GFS is completely missing the boat on current position of the 850mb vort.

Which way GCANE? Looking at the loop USTropics posted, the circulation looks to be about due north of Tallahassee. Where is the GFS initializing it?

Way to the east of what CIMSS is showing.
Pretty much over Carolinas, while CIMSS has it along the AL / GA border.

[N2FSU]

It looks GFS is completely missing the boat on current position of the 850mb vort.

Which way GCANE? Looking at the loop USTropics posted, the circulation looks to be about due north of Tallahassee. Where is the GFS initializing it?

Way to the east of what CIMSS is showing.
Pretty much over Carolinas, while CIMSS has it along the AL / GA border.

Thanks!

[cycloneye]

The chaser may be rethinking his not to go.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1148132378130280448

[USTropics]

The biggest issue I see with the 06z GFS is it initialized with an elongated 850mb vort signature stretched NW to SE. This requires the system to rotate more before it becomes optimally elongated SW to NE:


Currently, CIMSS 850mb vort product has this slightly elongated NE to SW and is further south:


Meanwhile, the 00z ECMWF properly forecasts the current slight NE to SW elongation:


A more NE to SW elongation will be optimal for the vorticity to build towards the GOM. We should see convection build towards the south along the tail end of the frontal zone later today, enhanced by daytime heating and potential sea breeze interaction as GCANE alluded to earlier. This will most likely cause the vortictity to stretch SW to NE more, and a consolidation of vorticity occurring along the lower pressure gradient. You can watch this evolution on the satellite IR simulation from the 00z ECMWF loop below:

[Aric Dunn]

The biggest issue I see with the 06z GFS is it initialized with an elongated 850mb vort signature stretched NW to SE. This requires the system to rotate more before it becomes optimally elongated SW to NE:
https://i.imgur.com/reXYzVW.png

Currently, CIMSS 850mb vort product has this slightly elongated NE to SW and is further south:
https://i.imgur.com/M3yDY0T.gif

Meanwhile, the 00z ECMWF properly forecasts the current slight NE to SW elongation:
https://i.imgur.com/hghUi2D.png

A more NE to SW elongation will be optimal for the vorticity to build towards the GOM. We should see convection build towards the south along the tail end of the frontal zone later today, enhanced by daytime heating and potential sea breeze interaction as GCANE alluded to earlier. This will most likely cause the vortictity to stretch SW to NE more, and a consolidation of vorticity occurring along the lower pressure gradient. You can watch this evolution on the satellite IR simulation from the 00z ECMWF loop below:

https://i.imgur.com/vSqoX6r.gif

Yes this what I was mentioning yesterday. As it approaches the coast watch the structure of the vorticity and where convection builds. I would wager we see a convective burst just offshore later today and overnight this would cause tugging on the vorticity and begin to transfer/elongate the energy more quickly to the south.

And it is also pretty evident the vorticity is not going much fsrther east. It has been sliding down the georiga Alabama border.

[TexasF6]

Do you guys notice the stall along the coasts of TX & LA at the end of the last KingEuro run?

[USTropics]

The biggest issue I see with the 06z GFS is it initialized with an elongated 850mb vort signature stretched NW to SE. This requires the system to rotate more before it becomes optimally elongated SW to NE:
https://i.imgur.com/reXYzVW.png

Currently, CIMSS 850mb vort product has this slightly elongated NE to SW and is further south:
https://i.imgur.com/M3yDY0T.gif

Meanwhile, the 00z ECMWF properly forecasts the current slight NE to SW elongation:
https://i.imgur.com/hghUi2D.png

A more NE to SW elongation will be optimal for the vorticity to build towards the GOM. We should see convection build towards the south along the tail end of the frontal zone later today, enhanced by daytime heating and potential sea breeze interaction as GCANE alluded to earlier. This will most likely cause the vortictity to stretch SW to NE more, and a consolidation of vorticity occurring along the lower pressure gradient. You can watch this evolution on the satellite IR simulation from the 00z ECMWF loop below:

https://i.imgur.com/vSqoX6r.gif

Yes this what I was mentioning yesterday. As it approaches the coast watch the structure of the vorticity and where convection builds. I would wager we see a convective burst just offshore later today and overnight this would cause tugging on the vorticity and begin to transfer/elongate the energy more quickly to the south.

And it is also pretty evident the vorticity is not going much fsrther east. It has been sliding down the georiga Alabama border.

Agreed, and the timing/slight tugs means everything in this instance with weak steering currents initially. In 30 hours, the ECMWF has the main vorticity over the GOM, while the GFS still has this stuck over the panhandle:

[tolakram]

No (very little) shear at the moment.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Ominous sky and low clouds in tampa

[StruThiO]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to
move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near
the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.