Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[Cpv17]

12Z GFS looks to be sending it into Central/Southern Mexico. As I posted last night, the GFS is having issues. Last night, it developed a system off the tip of Florida, sent it due west to Matagorda Bay, then hooked a 90 degree right into the Houston area as a major hurricane. I get that run to run, things change and especially intensity this far out should be taken very lightly. But the development period keeps getting pushed back further, the runs are all over the place still.

Once it gets to the WCAR all bets are off imo. I’m not really focusing on what it does past that.

[Iceresistance]

Do you mind explaining this for us who don't understand all the lingo? LOL.

OHC (Ocean Heat Content) basically shows how much energy is in the general area, this could allow a TC to become stronger under favorable conditions.

The Depth of the 20C Isoterm shows how deep the warm water is before it reaches the colder water, the brighter the colors, the warmer the lower levels are and upwelling can take longer than normal, which means a TC that is stalled can sustain itself for longer periods of time.

Thank you. I am a lurker trying to learn, so this has nothing to do with direction only strength?

Strength, directional factors are on the strength of the system, currents, and weather patterns factoring the jet stream with ridges and troughs.

I can go on and on about this, but I have other important things to do!

[wxman57]

Follow the 850mb vorticity. 12Z GFS takes it inland into Honduras around 18Z Monday. It continues moving west across Central America. By 12Z Wednesday, it develops a second feature near Jamaica and takes that system into the Gulf. ICON, CMC, and Euro all bury the disturbance in Central America with no second low near Jamaica Wed. Be very wary of the GFS.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Near the Windward Islands:
A trough of low pressure located near the Windward Islands is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This
system is expected to move westward at about 15 mph during the
next several days, and environmental conditions could become more
conducive for slow development when it moves across the central and
western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SoupBone]

12Z GFS looks to be sending it into Central/Southern Mexico. As I posted last night, the GFS is having issues. Last night, it developed a system off the tip of Florida, sent it due west to Matagorda Bay, then hooked a 90 degree right into the Houston area as a major hurricane. I get that run to run, things change and especially intensity this far out should be taken very lightly. But the development period keeps getting pushed back further, the runs are all over the place still.

Once it gets to the WCAR all bets are off imo. I’m not really focusing on what it does past that.

You mean if, right?

I'm having a tough time separating the two systems that wxman is talking about, even at 850mb. In the GEFS, I do think I see what he's saying. The original area dies in Belize, but then another area starts east of that, which then makes it into the gulf.

[Iceresistance]

12Z GFS looks to be sending it into Central/Southern Mexico. As I posted last night, the GFS is having issues. Last night, it developed a system off the tip of Florida, sent it due west to Matagorda Bay, then hooked a 90 degree right into the Houston area as a major hurricane. I get that run to run, things change and especially intensity this far out should be taken very lightly. But the development period keeps getting pushed back further, the runs are all over the place still.

Once it gets to the WCAR all bets are off imo. I’m not really focusing on what it does past that.

You mean if, right?

I'm having a tough time separating the two systems that wxman is talking about, even at 850mb. In the GEFS, I do think I see what he's saying. The original area dies in Belize, but then another area starts east of that, which then makes it into the gulf.

It's odd that this system (In the models) splits a new one, that would be extremely interesting and confusing if that ever happens!

[BobHarlem]

12Z GFS looks to be sending it into Central/Southern Mexico. As I posted last night, the GFS is having issues. Last night, it developed a system off the tip of Florida, sent it due west to Matagorda Bay, then hooked a 90 degree right into the Houston area as a major hurricane. I get that run to run, things change and especially intensity this far out should be taken very lightly. But the development period keeps getting pushed back further, the runs are all over the place still.

Once it gets to the WCAR all bets are off imo. I’m not really focusing on what it does past that.

You mean if, right?

I'm having a tough time separating the two systems that wxman is talking about, even at 850mb. In the GEFS, I do think I see what he's saying. The original area dies in Belize, but then another area starts east of that, which then makes it into the gulf.

I was comparing the vorticity to older runs, the one going into belize doesn't seem to be part of the Windwards system there, it does get confusing around that moment. Belize seemed like it came up from SA, and not directly related to it.

[Cpv17]

Once it gets to the WCAR all bets are off imo. I’m not really focusing on what it does past that.

You mean if, right?

I'm having a tough time separating the two systems that wxman is talking about, even at 850mb. In the GEFS, I do think I see what he's saying. The original area dies in Belize, but then another area starts east of that, which then makes it into the gulf.

I was comparing the vorticity to older runs, the one going into belize doesn't seem to be part of the Windwards system there, it does get confusing around that moment. Belize seemed like it came up from SA, and not directly related to it.

This is what I’m seeing as well.

[lsuhurricane]

12z Euro showing signs of life before surging into the Yucatan Peninsula and entering the BOC.

[Cpv17]

Well this is interesting:

[Kingarabian]

Wouldn't write this off until its buried into CA.

[Sambucol]

Well this is interesting:

https://i.postimg.cc/4yVFk1Qm/90469-B6-F-7-B2-C-46-C9-849-F-44-AA25564899.jpg

Does this indicate something tropical into Texas in during those dates?

[Sambucol]

Well this is interesting:

https://i.postimg.cc/4yVFk1Qm/90469-B6-F-7-B2-C-46-C9-849-F-44-AA25564899.jpg

Does this indicate something tropical into Texas in during those dates?

[wxman57]

Here's what I see the GFS doing. It takes the wave over the eastern Caribbean into Honduras by 12Z Monday then westward to near southern Belize by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, it develops another feature near Jamaica and takes that system northwestward and across the northern Yucatan on Saturday then west into Mexico on Sunday. It is the only model that develops a second low near Jamaica. As such, its solution is highly suspect.

[Cpv17]

Well this is interesting:

https://i.postimg.cc/4yVFk1Qm/90469-B6-F-7-B2-C-46-C9-849-F-44-AA25564899.jpg

Does this indicate something tropical into Texas in during those dates?

It’s a possibility.

[wxman57]

Well this is interesting:

https://i.postimg.cc/4yVFk1Qm/90469-B6-F-7-B2-C-46-C9-849-F-44-AA25564899.jpg

Does this indicate something tropical into Texas in during those dates?

Not necessarily, it just indicates increased precipitation along the Gulf coast, like we've experienced over the past week due to weak frontal boundaries in the region. I've measured almost 6" of rain in SW Houston this month over 13 rain days.

[MGC]

I wouldn't get to excited about this feature till it get to the Jamaica area. In the zone of death currently......MGC

[SoupBone]

Here's what I see the GFS doing. It takes the wave over the eastern Caribbean into Honduras by 12Z Monday then westward to near southern Belize by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, it develops another feature near Jamaica and takes that system northwestward and across the northern Yucatan on Saturday then west into Mexico on Sunday. It is the only model that develops a second low near Jamaica. As such, its solution is highly suspect.

http://wxman57.com/images/GFS.jpg

This makes a lot more sense, thanks. I was having issues seeing what you were explaining.

[skyline385]

Happy hour GFS doing its thing

[SoupBone]

Happy hour GFS doing its thing

https://i.imgur.com/p3RgHuI.png

But is that the main vorticity or the second one that wxman was discussing?