Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)
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Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
I'll be paying extra attention to the UKMET first and ICON second. For Ian last year, the UKMET did best by a good margin in having runs a good number of days out with a SW FL instead of Tampa or further north landfall like the bulk of other models had until much closer to landfall with ICON second.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
Recon and Gonzo at upper atmosphere for Sunday. The waiting is over, as the invest is imminent now.
A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 20.0N 86.2W FOR 27/1800Z.
A POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/1730Z.
NEAR 20.0N 86.2W FOR 27/1800Z.
A POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/1730Z.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
12z ICON is running late on Tidbits... GFS has started.
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
ICON 991 mb landfall in the Big Bend.
Last edited by Cat5James on Fri Aug 25, 2023 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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MGC
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Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
Cloud spin is becoming evident off the coast of Mexico in the NW Caribbean. If disturbance can manage to stay offshore it could spin up faster and become more intense than currently modeled......MGC
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cycloneye
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Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
GFS is stronger at 12Z.
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chris_fit
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Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
GFS more W then previous runs @108hrs - Going to Panhandle possibly.
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SFLcane
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Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
They way this is trending most of central southern Florida will get 1 inch of rain if that.
Last edited by SFLcane on Fri Aug 25, 2023 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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lsuhurricane
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StormPyrate
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Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
lsuhurricane wrote:Boy this run is sure to turn some heads
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023082512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_18.png
A storm in this area in September and it not become a hurricane would be surprising
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St Petersburg Florida
Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
The Further west it is the more time it has over water leading to a stronger system.
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fwbbreeze
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Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
Just one run...nothing to see here panhandle.... 
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toad strangler
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Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
GFS has been out to lunch the whole time. Is it now back from lunch? 
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
After the past few days debacle, it is really hard to put much faith in anything the GFS says. It has gone from almost nothing two runs ago to 977 MB in the panhandle now.
Really wish this would get tagged sooner than later. Would love to see some HWRF and HMON solutions. I have a feeling those may be interesting.
Really wish this would get tagged sooner than later. Would love to see some HWRF and HMON solutions. I have a feeling those may be interesting.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Fri Aug 25, 2023 11:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
That is also where the strongest SST anomalies are located in the Easter GOM...just what FL needs...another "I" storm headed their way.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea
12z CMC stronger than 0z, east of GFS around Apalachicola
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