Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[Spacecoast]

12z EPS shows increased probabilities (~35%) of TS impacts to CONUS vs 0z...

[SFLcane]

It seems like the cone is slowly shifting away from Florida with each update from the NHC.

This is not a cone has never been rather covers were potential genesis might happen. For us on the eastcoast we might still get some impacts especially if its poorly organized which seems likely in the form of some loose rainbands. Just a teaser for ASO.

Correct. Not an official NHC tropical cyclone cone. Most of us know that, but, it needs a name since we aren’t allowed to call it a cone without getting pulled over. How about Genesis Cone? Or GC lol. Whatever you want to call the shape, it still has relation to general track of an overall disturbance over a wide region.

Yea, its a misconseption leading the average user to think this is a track that is pointing at florida which is infact will more then likely stay to the east of the state. Could be better as Craig Setzer explains

 https://x.com/CraigSetzer/status/1818283542851289197

[Steve]

12z EPS shows increased probabilities (~35%) of TS impacts to CONUS vs 0z...


https://i.ibb.co/8m2XQNh/epa.jpg

I think the EC solution is probably the most likely (or closest to likely). But I'm also wondering with the complicated setup including multiple waves if the GFS isn't onto something with some of the moisture moving across the Gulf whereas maybe low pressure gets pulled up the SE Coast ahead of the trough before the heat ridge builds back in. If the heat ridge does build back as per the 500mb GFS, no chance this can hit anywhere but Texas if the west-moving energy/wave axis gets into the Gulf. But you'd have to look south of the conus high to find a pattern storm. Even if it completely busts, you have to appreciate the GFS recognizing where the likely place to look for a system would be relative to that pattern. Luckily all this is in the next several days, so we won't have long to wait to find out if there will be split energy.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 73012&fh=6

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z EPS shows weaker members, which get closer to FL before turning N. A bit of a W shift, but still the same idea.

[BobHarlem]

18z Icon still over Bahamas and out to sea (although it does get ever so slightly closer to Florida this time)

18z gfs still running, but it again goes into the Gulf (but getting quite a bit stronger than 12z at least to hurricane by 195 hours and not getting as far west).



Then to cat 2 by hour 207.

[Nimbus]

18Z GFS showing a tropical storm moving toward NOLA at 18 hours.

[jlauderdal]

18Z GFS showing a tropical storm moving toward NOLA at 18 hours.

Quick spinup in 18 hours?

[BobHarlem]

Happy hour GFS bringing it today, big outlier from most of the other models.







Last frame before landfall south of Morgan City, LA.

[Nimbus]

90 knot winds into the Louisiana coastline.
Would have to shut the oil platforms in that scenario?

[Category5Kaiju]

I agree that the GFS is a massive outlier.

But I'm wondering what the possibility is that this simply doesn't really develop before Florida (causing its weak nature to be less influenced by troughing), allowing it to get into the Gulf?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Don't think I've seen the models struggle with consistency quite as much as they have with this one... Euro keeps switching from hurricane to open wave every 12z/00z, GFS going from hurricane to open wave and shows the storm over a thousand miles away from the rest of the models.

[hipshot]

Happy hour GFS bringing it today, big outlier from most of the other models.

https://i.imgur.com/UZQB4XH.png

https://i.imgur.com/T4HF0TJ.png

https://i.imgur.com/1nhEHnl.png

Last frame before landfall south of Morgan City, LA.
https://i.imgur.com/yzipDMf.png

That landfall could be a real mess for refineries, oil rigs, in both LA and TX not to mention the wind and rain for the coastal population.

[Stratton23]

Im thinking the GFS maybe on to something, just a gut feeling, we shall see, i think its possible the energy from the wave splits into two pieces, one that goes up the east coast and another that gets into the gulf, kinda like what the GFS is doing, now the GFS could be way off here, but its also possible its seeing something that the other models arent seeing, especially a blocking ridge, very complicated forecast ahead

[Ubuntwo]

Don't think I've seen the models struggle with consistency quite as much as they have with this one... Euro keeps switching from hurricane to open wave every 12z/00z, GFS going from hurricane to open wave and shows the storm over a thousand miles away from the rest of the models.

The Euro has not gone down to an open wave for several days, but has shown a TD for a couple runs. Point taken otherwise. The GFS bifurcation is insane even if it makes synoptic sense.

[caneman]

None of the models seem to know what's going on. And for someone to say one is doing better than another or to claim to know which will be right is disingenuous Wake me up when we have a system to track.

[BobHarlem]

8pm Outlook graphic is stretched significantly out west in the Gulf more, but the eastern extents are identical to 2pm.

[chaser1]

You folks down in S. Florida might be in for a soaking if the GFS starts to push quicker in time. I can see it now - "..... local observations suggest that surface pressures over/near Lake Okeechobee have fallen 6 mb during the past two hours along with several reports of wind gusts to 45 mph along the coast from Key Largo to Cape Sable. Radar indicates numerous locations have already received 3" - 5" of rain with continued training bands of heavy rain and squalls expected. Residents and tourists throughout the Upper Keys, Southern Miami-Dade County, and Mainland Monroe are advised to avoid driving, chill out, and grab a beer"

[SFLcane]

You folks down in S. Florida might be in for a soaking if the GFS starts to push quicker in time. I can see it now - "..... local observations suggest that surface pressures over/near Lake Okeechobee have fallen 6 mb during the past two hours along with several reports of wind gusts to 45 mph along the coast from Key Largo to Cape Sable. Radar indicates numerous locations have already received 3" - 5" of rain with continued training bands of heavy rain and squalls expected. Residents and tourists throughout the Upper Keys, Southern Miami-Dade County, and Mainland Monroe are advised to avoid driving, chill out, and grab a beer"

Sounds about right.

[3090]

90 knot winds into the Louisiana coastline.
Would have to shut the oil platforms in that scenario?

They evacuate everyone except the most critically needed. Al non-essential folks go on shore until the storm passes. And of course, they run at minimum flow rates.

[wzrgirl1]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

Some thunderstorms starting to pop up.