Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Spacecoast]

18z EC-AIFS Run (into C. Gulf)

[Cachondo23]

Luis and the folks in the Leeward Islands, PR and Hispaniola unfortinately needs to closely monitor the development of the system. Stay safe!

Hopefully, if it forms before reaching the Caribbean, it doesn't go that south through The Grenadines. They are still battered after Beryl!

[zzzh]

Circulation is tightening, the system is organizing.

[wzrgirl1]

We have 17 pages on only an area of disturbed weather and over 300 guests browsing this forum. I have never seen that so early on a system.

[Category5Kaiju]

Hence why the tweet said ceiling.

other factors work along with SST’s to determine the ceiling height.

This is literally not what ceiling means (or at least definitely not the intended meaning in Patel's tweet), unless you defined it as the peak intensity the storm will actually reach eventually, which is very uncommon in this context.

SSTs and their anomalies matter in providing us an upper bound (best-case scenario for the storm, worst-case scenario for impacts) of how strong the storm could potentially be. Of course, every storm needs to stay clear of shear and dry air, have the right structure, have enough time to intensify, etc. in order to realize these potentials. But if SSTs in the Caribbean and Gulf were 26°C, we can confidently say the storm will almost never intensify to a major hurricane, and thus, wind impacts to land masses nearby will likely be limited.

This is certainly not the case here with widespread 30-32°C waters. Theoretically, waters in the Caribbean and Gulf now can support a sub-900 mb Cat 5. Of course, nobody is betting on that yet, even though it can technically happen. But more importantly, warmer waters make the storm more likely to rapidly intensify as long as other factors cooperate. Under the same shear and humidity conditions, you may end up with a storm going from Cat 1 to Cat 4 over 30°C waters in the same time frame as another storm from Cat 1 to Cat 3 over 28°C waters. We've seen this way too often in recent years: take any of the Gulf landfalling majors in the last 7 years, or Lee last year in an El Nino. And the difference in impact between a Cat 4 and a Cat 3 can be significant.

Otis from last year too is a good example. I think it was ultimately determined that the ultra-warm waters off the Mexican coastline really helped to fuel its hellishly quick intensification speed (low shear, moist environment, and its compact structure also helped, no doubt).

Speaking of sea surface temperatures, it looks like our future system will be tracking through some fresh, warm waters in the Caribbean. Basically untapped too (Beryl happened several months ago and was traveling at a relatively brisk pace, so upwelling wasn't really notable on sst anomaly maps even after the storm had departed the picture).

[skyline385]

other factors work along with SST’s to determine the ceiling height.

This is literally not what ceiling means (or at least definitely not the intended meaning in Patel's tweet), unless you defined it as the peak intensity the storm will actually reach eventually, which is very uncommon in this context.

SSTs and their anomalies matter in providing us an upper bound (best-case scenario for the storm, worst-case scenario for impacts) of how strong the storm could potentially be. Of course, every storm needs to stay clear of shear and dry air, have the right structure, have enough time to intensify, etc. in order to realize these potentials. But if SSTs in the Caribbean and Gulf were 26°C, we can confidently say the storm will almost never intensify to a major hurricane, and thus, wind impacts to land masses nearby will likely be limited.

This is certainly not the case here with widespread 30-32°C waters. Theoretically, waters in the Caribbean and Gulf now can support a sub-900 mb Cat 5. Of course, nobody is betting on that yet, even though it can technically happen. But more importantly, warmer waters make the storm more likely to rapidly intensify as long as other factors cooperate. Under the same shear and humidity conditions, you may end up with a storm going from Cat 1 to Cat 4 over 30°C waters in the same time frame as another storm from Cat 1 to Cat 3 over 28°C waters. We've seen this way too often in recent years: take any of the Gulf landfalling majors in the last 7 years, or Lee last year in an El Nino. And the difference in impact between a Cat 4 and a Cat 3 can be significant.

Otis from last year too is a good example. I think it was ultimately determined that the ultra-warm waters off the Mexican coastline really helped to fuel its hellishly quick intensification speed (low shear, moist environment, and its compact structure also helped, no doubt).

Speaking of sea surface temperatures, it looks like our future system will be tracking through some fresh, warm waters in the Caribbean. Basically untapped too (Beryl happened several months ago and was traveling at a relatively brisk pace, so upwelling wasn't really notable on sst anomaly maps even after the storm had departed the picture).

Beryl's influence on SSTs and OHCs in the Caribbean has been long gone, both SSts and OHCs in Caribbean and GoM are record high for current date.

[weeniepatrol]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Climatology alone suggests development, IMHO.

[AutoPenalti]

Yikes, that’s right into Hispaniola…

[Cpv17]

We have 17 pages on only an area of disturbed weather and over 300 guests browsing this forum. I have never seen that so early on a system.

Cuz we’re thirsty.

[mpic]

We have 17 pages on only an area of disturbed weather and over 300 guests browsing this forum. I have never seen that so early on a system.

Cuz we’re thirsty.

Lol cuz I finally got a generator only to have to return it today because they sent the wrong one and I'm concerned.

[BobHarlem]

last frame of 0z icon (good deal west of the 12z one)

[Category5Kaiju]

We have 17 pages on only an area of disturbed weather and over 300 guests browsing this forum. I have never seen that so early on a system.

I mean, between the thirst to witness some hurricane action after the lull and with the very real possibility of this becoming a significant hurricane that threatens some of the Caribbean Islands (and even potentially the CONUS), I'm not surprised.

[IcyTundra]

0Z GFS with a more strung out wave. The GFS is having issues figuring out exactly what the structure of this wave is going to look like even in the short term which leads to a lot of inconsistency.

[AxaltaRacing24]

We have 17 pages on only an area of disturbed weather and over 300 guests browsing this forum. I have never seen that so early on a system.

You’ll have that with models painting an ominous picture that aligns directly with peak season.

[Stratton23]

I dont like that the 00z GFS, holds the wave together and starts to develop in the western Caribbean at hour 180, this run is definitely a gulf run

[ElectricStorm]

0z CMC also has nothing so far despite having a hurricane on the 12z. Back and forth we go...

[Keldeo1997]

GFS curently has it stalled off the coast the Yucatan.

Edit: I didn't think a Central America Landfall would be on the table but here we are.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: another run with no TC (goes out to 168)

[Hammy]

I have to wonder if the monsoonal nature of this rather than being a typical detached easterly wave is causing issues with the model output