TD 10...Back Again

[NastyCat4]

There are two options for TD 10: Either it will become a named storm, or it won't, and nothing we say here will have any impact upon that decision,

[jkt21787]

Hey that looks like a TD again.

The convection is impressive, but it will need to be maintained at least through the night before even thinking about it getting back to TD status. This could get sheared away very quickly.

Lets wait, but as I said just a moment ago, it is very impressive at this moment.

[Bocadude85]

"What is wrong with it? Andrew was a once-in-a-lifetime catastrophic storm--evidently, you are too young, or not experienced enough to realize that trivializing a situation such as Andrew by comparing it to a struggling fledgling depression is inappropriate"

How could you say that seeing a cat 5 strike land is a once in a lifetime thing, camile hit in 1969 and andrew hit 23 years later in 1992 thats farless then a lifetime, thats like saying lighting never strikes the same place twice, it happened once and it will almost certianly happen again.

[du1st]

Hey that looks like a TD again.

The convection is impressive, but it will need to be maintained at least through the night before even thinking about it getting back to TD status. This could get sheared away very quickly.

Lets wait, but as I said just a moment ago, it is very impressive at this moment.

True True indeed.

[Ivanhater]

steve lyons said earlier if it persists it will be upgraded tonight...i wonder if he was in contact with someone at the nhc

[du1st]

"What is wrong with it? Andrew was a once-in-a-lifetime catastrophic storm--evidently, you are too young, or not experienced enough to realize that trivializing a situation such as Andrew by comparing it to a struggling fledgling depression is inappropriate"

How could you say that seeing a cat 5 strike land is a once in a lifetime thing, camile hit in 1969 and andrew hit 23 years later in 1992 thats farless then a lifetime, thats like saying lighting never strikes the same place twice, it happened once and it will almost certianly happen again.

Let it go man.

[bsuwx]

"comparing it to a struggling fledgling depression is inappropriate"

was andrew not at one point a struggling tropical storm battling shear?

[Sanibel]

A weak storm that persists in shear and blows up after being nearly wiped out is a storm that is telling you it will form...

[du1st]

steve lyons said earlier if it persists it will be upgraded tonight...i wonder if he was in contact with someone at the nhc

I think TWC and NHC have pretty close ties.

[Scorpion]

Lol I never said "expect another Andrew" I said it might take an Andrew-like track and intensify into a possible major.

[jkt21787]

steve lyons said earlier if it persists it will be upgraded tonight...i wonder if he was in contact with someone at the nhc

Thats interesting. I think they shouldn't upgrade at 11 because its too soon. Wait till 5 or even 11 AM tomorrow when visibles are up and see whats its like then.

It would be embarrasing for them to have to downgrade a second time if this doesn't last more than 6 or 12 hours.

[du1st]

A weak storm that persists in shear and blows up after being nearly wiped out is a storm that is telling you it will form...

Remeber Irene?

[WeatherEmperor]

steve lyons said earlier if it persists it will be upgraded tonight...i wonder if he was in contact with someone at the nhc

well Dr.Lyons used to work there a few years back. Perhaps he has a secret spy there at the NHC that sends him secret messages over a satellite phone.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

steve lyons said earlier if it persists it will be upgraded tonight...i wonder if he was in contact with someone at the nhc

I think TWC and NHC have pretty close ties.

ya, i didnt know if he was going off on his own or actually heard it from the nhc

[Scorpion]

They probably wouldnt downgrade it. Irene was a wave for several hours but they still kept it at TD.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this will likely stay west-northwest as the subtropcial high builds to its north(Mjo wet phase=convection over the tropics + lower pressures. Which also means a higher pressure to the north) Also think as the trough/tutt moves out/weakens the enviroment is going to become very favable. A upper high is trying to build over this system for crying out load.

We have a well defined LLC with a big burst of convection. While at the same time a upper high with the enviroment slowly becoming more favable. Also one of the reason why Dennis/Emily became power houses was because they had to deal with very little SAL. Can't say that the super warm waters did not help but that a lone doe's not make a a storm powerful. The SAL is a check on that. In with little of that at the moment I'm scared that it could well grow into a powerful storm.

This is not a tropical wave. If you went to call it anything its called a tropical distrabance or tropical low.

I also think a slow organizion over the next 24 to 36 hours should take place. Then a faster pace of development afterwards. People I'm not fooling around.

This has a defined LLC with developing convection right over it. I would watch it as it moves into a moist plus a low shear enviroment.

This is my option take it for what its worth.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this will likely stay west-northwest as the subtropcial high builds to its north(Mjo wet phase=convection over the tropics + lower pressures. Which also means a higher pressure to the north) Also think as the trough/tutt moves out/weakens the enviroment is going to become very favable. A upper high is trying to build over this system for crying out load.

We have a well defined LLC with a big burst of convection. While at the same time a upper high with the enviroment slowly becoming more favable. Also one of the reason why Dennis/Emily became power houses was because they had to deal with very little SAL. Can't say that the super warm waters did not help but that a lone doe's not make a a storm powerful. The SAL is a check on that. In with little of that at the moment I'm scared that it could well grow into a powerful storm.

This is not a tropical wave. If you went to call it anything its called a tropical distrabance or tropical low.

I also think a slow organizion over the next 24 to 36 hours should take place. Then a faster pace of development afterwards. People I'm not fooling around.

This has a defined LLC with developing convection right over it. I would watch it as it moves into a moist plus a low shear enviroment.

This is my option take it for what its worth.

[du1st]

Lol I never said "expect another Andrew" I said it might take an Andrew-like track and intensify into a possible major.

Don't worry about it. What makes you think it will be a major?

[Ivanhater]

steve lyons said earlier if it persists it will be upgraded tonight...i wonder if he was in contact with someone at the nhc

well Dr.Lyons used to work there a few years back. Perhaps he has a secret spy there at the NHC that sends him secret messages over a satellite phone.

<RICKY>

haaaa, now that would be something

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this will likely stay west-northwest as the subtropcial high builds to its north(Mjo wet phase=convection over the tropics + lower pressures. Which also means a higher pressure to the north) Also think as the trough/tutt moves out/weakens the enviroment is going to become very favable. A upper high is trying to build over this system for crying out load.

We have a well defined LLC with a big burst of convection. While at the same time a upper high with the enviroment slowly becoming more favable. Also one of the reason why Dennis/Emily became power houses was because they had to deal with very little SAL. Can't say that the super warm waters did not help but that a lone doe's not make a a storm powerful. The SAL is a check on that. In with little of that at the moment I'm scared that it could well grow into a powerful storm.

This is not a tropical wave. If you went to call it anything its called a tropical distrabance or tropical low.

I also think a slow organizion over the next 24 to 36 hours should take place. Then a faster pace of development afterwards. People I'm not fooling around.

This has a defined LLC with developing convection right over it. I would watch it as it moves into a moist plus a low shear enviroment.

This is my option take it for what its worth.